Nottingham Forest significantly boosted their hopes of securing Champions League qualification for next season with a 4-2 victory over struggling Ipswich. The win extends third-placed Forest's lead over fifth-placed Manchester City to six points. Manchester City were held to a 2-2 draw at their home ground, the Etihad Stadium, by Brighton, who are also chasing European qualification.
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03-16, 2025With second-placed Arsenal facing fourth-placed Chelsea on Sunday (13:30 GMT), Nuno Espírito Santo's Forest will be hoping to make ground on multiple fronts as they push for their first appearance in European competition since the 1995-96 season. Sixth-placed Newcastle, who face Liverpool in the League Cup final on Sunday (16:30 GMT) and are currently just one point behind Manchester City and two behind Chelsea, could also benefit, as they will have a game in hand after this weekend.
Like Newcastle, Brighton currently have 47 points, while Bournemouth's hopes of matching that tally were dented by a 1-2 defeat at home to Brentford. Brentford are 11th, seven points behind Manchester City, while 10th-placed Fulham will be hoping to boost their European qualification hopes when they face Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday (13:30 GMT).
At this time last season, Forest were still battling to stay in England's top flight. However, despite overseeing the transformation from relegation candidates to Champions League contenders, Nuno is not getting carried away. "You know how I look at the table. What we have to do is focus on ourselves, try to work as hard as we can because there are a lot of games to play," said Forest's Portuguese head coach. He added: "We will have 14 players going to the international break. We wish them all the best and hope they come back healthy so we can continue this journey."
Meanwhile, Guardiola said he could sense anxiety around the Etihad during Manchester City's game against Brighton, but he still believes they will qualify for Europe's premier club competition. "I am always confident – I am a master in that. I will have doubts, but I will find the right way to find the positivity in everything." He continued: "To get in the top four is more difficult than people believe, I respect Nottingham Forest and Brighton. I know it will be difficult for many reasons, but we have nine games, nine finals."
Brighton midfielder Jack Hinshelwood, speaking to BBC's Match of the Day, outlined their growing confidence of securing European qualification for only the second time in their 124-year history. "The momentum we have got at the minute makes us believe we can beat anyone on any given day. The fans have been unbelievable. If we can keep this momentum going, we will be hard to stop." He added: "Last season we had a taste of European football. As a club, we are striving to get back to that."
Brentford captain Christian Nørgaard was also optimistic about their prospects after beating Bournemouth on the south coast. "We knew, with the position we and they are in at this stage of the season, it was a must-win game if we are going to achieve anything bigger this season." He stated: "Why not try to push for [European qualification]? We have pretty much secured ourselves from the relegation battle. Now we should be able to play with that freedom and really try to go for the last nine games. There are a lot of good teams fighting for those European spots, but I think we are capable of taking one of them."
Opta's league prediction model assesses the probability of teams finishing in each position. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw, or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance, while also taking into account the strength of the opposition. The model estimates that Liverpool have a 100% chance of finishing in the top four and a 99.51% chance of winning the Premier League. Arsenal currently have a 99.15% probability of finishing in the top four this season, while Nottingham Forest's chances have risen to 65.88%, and Manchester City's hopes of qualifying for the Champions League for the 15th consecutive season have fallen to 57.12%. Chelsea (36.18%) and Newcastle (30.52%) are also deemed to be strong contenders, but then it drops to Brighton and eighth-placed Aston Villa, who have just a 6.48% and 2.47% chance respectively.
_These data were accurate as of 19:25 GMT on Saturday, March 15th_
Each nation's league receives a coefficient ranking based on its teams' performance in UEFA's three men's club competitions (Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League). Coefficient points are awarded for match results – two points for a win and one for a draw. The points earned by clubs from the same domestic league are added together and then divided by the number of clubs from that league competing in Europe. For example, if the Premier League has 100 points, that will be divided by the number of teams competing in Europe (seven), giving England a coefficient of 14.28.
This season, clubs participating in the Champions League can earn bonus points, which benefits leagues with more clubs participating, such as Germany and Italy. The top two countries in the coefficient table will receive an extra Champions League spot for the next season. These spots will be awarded to the highest-ranked teams in those leagues that have not already qualified through the standard Champions League allocation. In the Premier League, the top four clubs automatically qualify for the Champions League via league position, so any additional spot would be awarded to the fifth-placed team. Bologna and Dortmund have secured the additional spots for the 2024-25 season, finishing fifth in Serie A and the Bundesliga respectively.
