Copernicus declares 2024 the hottest year on record and this is how it looked

According to data released today by the European Union's main climate service, the past decade has been the hottest on record globally, and 2024 has been officially confirmed as the hottest year ever. This year also marks the first time the Earth's average annual temperature has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, one of the warming targets that world leaders pledged to limit in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

In 2024, floods, heatwaves, and destructive storms frequently made headlines, and several significant climate milestones were also surpassed. Data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) shows that global temperatures in 2024 were 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, easily breaking the record set in 2023. The agency's deputy director, Samantha Burgess, stated that the world is on the verge of breaching the global warming thresholds set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Burgess noted, "The high global temperatures in 2024, combined with record global atmospheric water vapor levels, led to unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing suffering for millions." The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold could trigger more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and intense droughts, heatwaves, rainfall, and storm surges leading to coastal flooding.

Nevertheless, exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius target for just one year does not mean that we have failed to fulfill the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term changes over 20-30 years. The IPCC's latest report predicts that global warming will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052, but climate scientists say that this timeline may be brought forward based on recent data.

Along with rising temperatures, extreme rainfall has also increased. The Global Water Monitor Report shows that daily rainfall records in 2024 were 52% higher than the average from 1995-2005. Professor Albert Van Dijk, the report's lead author, stated that the extreme increase in daily rainfall has led to severe flash flood events around the world, including the destructive floods in Spain in October. He also mentioned that southern Brazil has also suffered severe flooding, while northern Brazil is experiencing drought, and similar floods have occurred in Bangladesh, Vietnam, southern China, the Philippines, and other places, related to cyclones in Southeast Asia.

However, looking at a longer timescale, the trend is the opposite. The Global Water Monitor Report found that the number of record drought months in 2024 was far above average, a situation that has become increasingly common in recent decades. Professor Van Dijk pointed out that although extreme weather occurs every year around the world, this year's extreme weather events have "worsened," with severe floods, hurricanes, and droughts occurring globally.

The hurricane and typhoon season in the Northern Hemisphere was particularly destructive, with multiple systems being severe and record-breaking. Hurricane Milton generated 46 tornadoes and caused torrential rain and localized flooding, and its rapid intensification was one of the highest ever observed. Additionally, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record in July. During the Atlantic hurricane season, two severe hurricanes, Helen and Milton, hit Florida in succession within two weeks. Meanwhile, the Philippines experienced a record-breaking typhoon season, with six storm systems hitting the country in a single month.

Climate scientists believe that one possible reason for the extreme weather is the persistent abnormally high temperatures of the oceans around the world. Oceanographer Chris Chapman of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia stated that although some ocean heat is due to El Niño, its persistence and intensity in other regions has far exceeded normal levels.

Despite a significant increase in disasters and the corresponding rise in economic costs, the number of deaths caused by these disasters has decreased thanks to improved early warning systems and disaster management. The World Meteorological Organization compiled the number of deaths from natural disasters based on the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters' emergency events database.

Most of Australia experienced high temperatures this year, although there were some severe cold snaps in winter. This led to Australia recording its second-hottest year since reliable national data began in 1910. Last year, parts of Australia, including most of Western Australia and the central inland region, experienced record high temperatures. Last year was also the 24th consecutive year that the country failed to record an average temperature below normal levels. Although overall temperatures were slightly below record levels, nighttime minimum temperatures easily set the highest record in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's 115-year history.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Coral Reef Watch stated that the "global mass bleaching" of coral reefs since February 2023 is the most widespread on record. Up to 78.9% of coral reef areas globally, from the Atlantic to the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, have been affected by bleaching-level heat stress. This includes the seventh mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef since 1998, and the fifth in eight years.

In 2024, most parts of the world experienced multiple days of intense heat stress, with some areas experiencing this almost year-round, including parts of Australia. At least one day of intense heat stress, with a maximum apparent temperature exceeding 32 degrees Celsius. Parts of South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia experienced a large number of heat stress days.

According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, the extent of Antarctic sea ice (including the annual minimum in February and the maximum in September) was the second lowest since satellite records began. Unlike the Northern Hemisphere, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has not historically shown a strong trend with global warming. However, Dr. Chapman stated that the recent decline has raised questions among scientists. "We can't say anything definitively, you know, two or three years doesn't constitute a trend. But so far, the sea ice hasn't rebounded, and that's keeping some people up at night because it suggests that something may have changed in the system."

The biggest factor contributing to global warming is greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. To stop this trend, our emissions not only need to reach a stable level, but also need to decrease. Scientists had hoped that 2024 would be the year that emissions began to decline. However, emissions are still growing, although at a slower rate. Renewable energy plays a major role in reducing global emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, global wind and solar power capacity will reach a new record in 2024, following a record year in 2023. But this is still not enough to offset the growing demand for electricity, which is why global greenhouse gas emissions have not declined.