How Japan prime minister's homework on Trump paid off

Recently, against the backdrop of increasing instability in the Asia-Pacific region, if Japan needed to reaffirm its position as the United States' most important ally and friend in the region, this meeting undoubtedly gave Japan a reassuring signal. The meeting between Trump and Shigeru Ishiba at the White House was noteworthy, especially because it did not involve any controversial incidents.

Unlike Trump's past performance in domestic and international affairs, this meeting neither sparked controversy nor featured confrontation. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters after the meeting on Friday: "On television, he seems very scary, but when I met him, he was very sincere and determined."

There are many ties between the United States and Japan. Japan has been the largest foreign investor in the United States for five consecutive years, creating thousands of jobs. In addition, the United States has 54,000 military personnel stationed in Japan. However, some of President Trump's actions, such as launching tariff wars against China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as his "ownership" proposal for Gaza and sanctions against the International Criminal Court, have worried his allies and adversaries alike.

Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies in Japan, said: "Trump has made some destabilizing decisions about countries that consider themselves friends of the United States. Tokyo was worried that the same thing would happen: Trump might impose huge tariffs on Japan or trigger some disputes. But none of this happened." While Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on Tokyo, it was not the main topic of the meeting.

Shigeru Ishiba prepared thoroughly for the visit to Washington, including holding "study sessions" with staff and seeking advice from former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The widow of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also provided some assistance, as Abe had built a close relationship with Trump during his first presidential term, especially on the golf course. Ishiba's preparation paid off.

Apart from Trump mistakenly referring to Nippon Steel as "Nissan," the meeting did not have many surprising moments, which was in stark contrast to statements made by other U.S. presidents. In fact, as far as Japan is concerned, the meeting was reassuring. The two leaders seemed to have reached a consensus on plans to promote trade and defense, ushering in a "golden age" of Japan-U.S. relations.

Shigeru Ishiba announced that Japan plans to increase its investment in the United States to $1 trillion in order to rebalance trade relations between the two countries. He said that Japanese automakers will increase investment, and Tokyo will also expand imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). This is undoubtedly good news for Trump, and it supports his "drill, baby, drill" slogan from his inaugural address.

The two sides also found common ground on the controversial Nippon Steel issue. Trump said that Nippon Steel will "invest heavily" in U.S. Steel Corporation, located in Pennsylvania, but will not hold a majority stake. Previously, President Biden blocked Nippon Steel's attempt to acquire U.S. Steel on national security grounds.

For Japan, the meeting accomplished enough to breathe a sigh of relief. But the main purpose of Ishiba's trip was personal. Having lost its ruling majority in the October general election, Ishiba's political position at home is precarious, and his minority government's grip on power is weak. He desperately needed a victory.

Previously, there were concerns about how he would perform in a meeting with the notoriously elusive Trump. Hall said: "For weeks, local media have been touting the idea that he will not succeed diplomatically—that he is clumsy, unsociable, and that if he goes to Washington, Trump will make him suffer." But Ishiba ultimately seemed to succeed.

The former Japanese Minister of Defense is a veteran politician known for giving lengthy speeches in parliament. Observers say that these speeches sometimes confuse his opponents and sometimes bore others. But at the "Trump Strategy Meeting" held with staff, he reportedly received the biggest piece of advice: "State the conclusion first, keep it concise." Hall said: "Ishiba followed a strategy of flattering Trump and offering him economic investment in the United States, rather than confronting him."

Japan and the United States may have disagreements on some issues, especially Trump's proposal for the United States to take over the Gaza Strip, which has sparked strong criticism worldwide. Japan has reiterated its long-standing position in support of a two-state solution. Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi said last week: "We will not change our position."

Tokyo is also closely watching Trump's trade war with China. But Hall said that Japan would not get involved in the U.S.-China trade war if it could be avoided. In its relations with China, Japan needs to maintain a delicate balance. China is Tokyo's largest trading partner and one of the largest investment destinations for Japanese companies.

In terms of defense and diplomacy, both the United States and Japan face challenges from China's growing influence and actions in the region and globally. This is especially true as the Chinese military now frequently and provocatively operates in the waters near Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province. In 2022, Japan, a pacifist nation, announced that it would double its defense spending by 2027, citing threats from China and North Korea, and said it would acquire the ability to strike enemy bases. These changes mark the most drastic change in Japan's security strategy since it adopted a pacifist constitution after World War II.

Against the backdrop of North Korea's continued advancement of its nuclear program, political turmoil in South Korea, and ongoing U.S.-China confrontation, Japan has once again positioned itself as the United States' least challenging and only unproblematic ally in the region. Hall said: "Japan will avoid conflict with Trump as much as possible and will likely be a 'yes' friend."