What does Trump’s ethnic cleansing proposal mean for Gaza ceasefire deal?

U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, but experts point out that his proposed plan to forcibly displace Palestinian residents could undermine the agreement. Trump has repeatedly called for "clearing out" Gaza this week, which human rights organizations equate to ethnic cleansing, and he has stated that the U.S. should "take over" the Palestinian territory. This stance has sparked widespread criticism and raised concerns about its impact on regional stability.

World leaders have warned that expelling Palestinians from Gaza would destabilize the entire Middle East region. More directly, Trump's remarks could hinder efforts to achieve a lasting peace in Gaza. Josh Ruebner, an instructor in the Justice and Peace Studies program at Georgetown University, stated: "President Trump's completely reckless call for the ethnic cleansing of over two million Palestinians gravely undermines the possibility that the ceasefire agreement will continue to hold." The international community emphasizes the importance of adhering to international law and respecting the rights of the Palestinian people.

Ruebner further pointed out that ethnic cleansing Palestinians is not part of any ceasefire agreement, and by putting this option on the table, Trump could undermine this fragile process. The ceasefire agreement took effect on January 19, the day before Trump began his second term as president. But Trump claims that the negotiating efforts led by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff were crucial to reaching the agreement. The success of the ceasefire is now at risk due to the President's controversial statements.

Trump mentioned the ceasefire agreement in his inaugural address and pledged to leave a legacy as a "peace-maker and unifier." Days later, Trump floated the idea of emptying Gaza of its residents. Initially, it was easy to dismiss these remarks as off-the-cuff, exaggerated statements. But he has since repeatedly reiterated these views. On Tuesday, while speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, he read from prepared remarks, elaborating on his proposal. "The United States will take over Gaza, and we'll do a good job. We'll have it," Trump said. This has caused a lot of concern in the international community.

Despite Trump's aforementioned remarks, the ceasefire agreement continues to hold. The shooting has stopped, and Hamas will release three Israeli captives in the coming days in exchange for Israel releasing 183 Palestinians. However, the U.S. president's proposal has raised questions about the subsequent phases of the truce, including discussions about the future of Gaza. It is important to address these concerns in order to ensure a lasting peace.

The first phase, which includes the release of 33 Israeli captives, the provision of significant humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, is set to expire on March 1. The second phase should include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent ceasefire, and the release of all remaining captives held by Hamas. The third phase includes a five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza. Trump's push for the complete departure of the people of Gaza from the territory appears to directly contradict the spirit of the agreement. This raises concerns about the long-term viability of the ceasefire.

There are indications that the U.S. government is no longer committed to all parts of the agreement it boasts of brokering. On Tuesday, Trump's envoy Witkoff stated that Washington would push to complete the first two phases to release all Israeli captives. But he appeared to abandon the third phase, the reconstruction of Gaza, saying it "can't be done in a five-year plan as the agreement says." Witkoff completely distanced the Trump team from the agreement, calling it "not much of an agreement" to begin with. "We had nothing to do with it," he said. This shift in stance has created uncertainty about the future of Gaza.

U.S. officials have tried to walk back or at least soften Trump's remarks, with White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt stating that the people of Gaza would be "temporarily relocated." Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that the displacement of Gazan Palestinians would be "temporary," and residents would be able to "move back" after reconstruction. But the president has reiterated almost daily this week that his plan is to permanently remove Palestinians from Gaza and claiming the U.S. owns the territory. The mixed messaging from the U.S. government has caused confusion and concern.

Khalil Jahanshah, executive director of the Arab Center Washington, stated that Trump's proposal foreshadows the end of the ceasefire agreement. "In my opinion, what we heard from the White House this week, completely killed the ceasefire agreement. It's over," Jahanshah told Al Jazeera. "It deprives the ceasefire agreement of its intended purpose: to provide a future solution for Gaza and the people of Gaza. If the people of Gaza are going to be ethnically cleansed to anywhere from Indonesia to Albania, then what's the point of going forward?" The focus now shifts to finding a way to ensure the safety and security of the Palestinian people.

Trump himself has hinted that war may soon resume. "The attacks could start tomorrow," Trump said on Tuesday. "There's not much left to attack." Since October 2023, Israel's offensive on Gaza, with U.S. support, has killed nearly 62,000 Palestinians, including thousands of missing people presumed dead. The international community is calling for an immediate end to the violence and a lasting solution to the conflict.

But why would Trump so heavily emphasize brokering a ceasefire agreement that he does not intend to abide by? Middle East analyst Khaled Elgindy stated: "Donald Trump is not interested in the ceasefire agreement, he's not interested in the well-being of Palestinians. He's interested in the headline of a ceasefire agreement. He wants the credit. He wants to say, 'I won. I'm the one who did this.' He doesn't actually care whether the agreement is implemented, whether it collapses, or whether it ends in ethnic cleansing." Trump's motivations are being questioned as the future of the ceasefire hangs in the balance.

Elgindy stated that completing the second phase of the agreement, a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, is critical to stopping the ethnic cleansing plan. "There's no question that the ceasefire agreement on its face is completely incompatible with a plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza," Elgindy told Al Jazeera. "That's why I think the second phase is so critical. If we can get an agreement on the second phase, and the second phase is implemented, then I think the risk of ethnic cleansing actually happening will be greatly diminished." The implementation of the second phase is seen as a crucial step towards preventing further escalation.

Elgindy added that Trump's "nonsense" about the future of Gaza is not helpful to the ceasefire agreement, but completing the agreement itself has its own momentum, and the decisions lie with Netanyahu and the U.S. president. When asked about the ceasefire agreement at the White House this week, Netanyahu pledged to continue pursuing three war goals: releasing the captives, destroying Hamas's military and governing capabilities, and ensuring that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel. The decisions made by these leaders will determine the fate of the ceasefire agreement.

Following the ceasefire, heavily armed Hamas militants have appeared throughout Gaza, after more than 15 months of war. The group still appears to be overseeing the area's civil administration. Netanyahu could face a collapse of his ruling coalition if Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who supports resuming the war, withdraws from the government. The stability of the Israeli government is also a factor in the future of the ceasefire.

Elgindy told Al Jazeera: "At this point, Netanyahu already knows whether he wants a ceasefire, i.e. the second phase, and Donald Trump already knows whether he will agree to Netanyahu's decision." Jahanshah believes that Netanyahu signaled his plans when he reiterated his intention to continue pursuing war goals in front of Trump. "Netanyahu's statement in the presence of Trump, without any objection from Trump, is essentially a declaration of war, of resuming the war very soon. So to me, that's probably the most likely scenario," he told Al Jazeera. The possibility of a renewed conflict remains a significant concern.