Pacific allies typically avoid public disputes, but a rare public disagreement between New Zealand and Kiribati has once again focused attention on this impoverished and isolated island nation. This highlights the existential threat Kiribati faces from the climate crisis, while also reflecting the power struggle among major world powers for regional dominance.
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02-10, 2025New Zealand's right-leaning government unexpectedly announced a review of aid to its Pacific neighbor last week, ostensibly because Kiribati had snubbed a senior official. According to a Kiribati minister, this move "caused serious unease among Kiribati's approximately 120,000 residents." According to the Lowy Institute, foreign aid accounted for 18% of Kiribati's national income in 2022, with New Zealand being one of its largest donors.
Kiribati consists of 33 coral islands scattered across a remote area of the central Pacific, covering 3.5 million square kilometers, larger than India. Despite its small population, Kiribati possesses one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world. Its proximity to Hawaii and US military bases in Guam gives it strategic importance in the vast waters between Asia and the Americas, making it a point of contention for major powers vying for influence.
This diplomatic spat has brought renewed attention to the struggle for influence in the Pacific region between China and Western nations, primarily the United States. Concurrently, concerns are rising among Pacific leaders that the Trump administration's threats to disrupt US relations in the region, including withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization, as well as a 90-day aid freeze, will impact vulnerable communities.
The dispute began last week with a sudden move by New Zealand's Deputy Prime Minister. Winston Peters, New Zealand's Foreign Minister, shelved a review of tens of millions of dollars in aid to Kiribati after Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau canceled a planned meeting, a spokesperson for Peters told CNN. Peters had planned to lead a delegation to Kiribati last month, including handing over a New Zealand-funded $14 million hospital upgrade project. But a week before they were due to arrive, Kiribati informed the delegation that Maamau, who also serves as the country's Foreign Minister, was "unavailable" to meet them.
Peters' office added: "The lack of political engagement makes it difficult for us to agree on shared priorities for the development program and ensure it is well-targeted and delivers good value." New Zealand's total aid commitment to Kiribati between 2021 and 2024 amounts to $57 million, invested in health, education, fisheries, economic development, and climate resilience.
One analyst said New Zealand's surprising move to review the entire aid program stemmed from Peters' "deep frustration at repeated diplomatic efforts to engage with the Kiribati government being rebuffed." Anna Powles, a Massey University defense and security studies associate professor in New Zealand, said: "New Zealand has struggled to engage with the Kiribati government, including in key areas that New Zealand supports such as health, climate and education."
However, Kiribati described the situation as a misunderstanding. The Kiribati President's office said in a statement that it was "surprised to learn" of media reports regarding Peters' visit, "which was still under active negotiation, based on the understanding that alternative dates would be explored."
Experts say the dispute likely reflects widespread Western concern that China's diplomatic and economic activity is undermining their interests in the Pacific region. At the time the dispute went public, Maamau was visiting Kiribati's two closest neighbors. "Kiribati has made it very clear who its preferred partners are in the region: Fiji, Nauru, and of course China," Powles said. "As we've just seen, New Zealand and Australia are finding it challenging to engage with Kiribati and to get the access that they would like to get. And China simply doesn't face those same challenges."
In recent years, many Pacific nations have forged closer ties with Beijing. In 2019, the pro-China President Maamau oversaw Kiribati's switch from recognizing Taiwan to establishing diplomatic relations with China, one of several Pacific nations to do so. Critics say that under Maamau, who was re-elected to a third term last October, Kiribati has adopted an autocratic and isolationist posture. A prominent opposition leader last year expressed concerns about the lack of transparency surrounding 10 agreements signed between Kiribati and China in 2022.
That same year, Maamau also withdrew from the Pacific Islands Forum, threatening the unity of the 18-member bloc at a time when the region faced increasing geopolitical pressure. Although Kiribati rejoined in 2023, some suspect Beijing played a role in the withdrawal decision, a claim the Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed as "completely groundless." Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the Pacific's security partners, have also expressed concern about uniformed Chinese police officers appearing in Kiribati and the Solomon Islands.
Jon Fraenkel, a comparative politics professor at Victoria University of Wellington, said New Zealand's public dispute was "not smart diplomacy." But he added that Wellington was ultimately unlikely to cut its aid program. Although Beijing is an important partner, "Chinese aid levels to Kiribati are not particularly great," Fraenkel said. "A lot of it is just grant aid, which may or may not have some developmental impact."
Concerns about Beijing's influence in the region have been heightened this week by Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown's announcement that he will make a state visit to China next week to discuss a strategic partnership agreement. The Cook Islands are in free association with New Zealand, meaning its people have New Zealand citizenship. A New Zealand Foreign Ministry spokesperson told CNN that the New Zealand and Cook Islands governments "currently disagree" on "a number of issues," including a lack of transparency on "policies and partnerships with other countries."
The ministry said it expected the Cook Islands government to fully consult with Wellington on any "significant international agreement" with "major strategic and security implications." Under former President Joe Biden, the United States has ramped up its rhetoric, as well as defense and security assistance to the Pacific region, to counter China's growing regional influence. The US has signed security agreements with Papua New Guinea and Fiji, renewed Compacts of Free Association with Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, and opened an embassy in the Solomon Islands.
But according to the Lowy Institute's Pacific Aid Map, US aid to the Pacific region accounted for just 7% of overseas funding to the region in 2022. "The concern is that the US has failed to make as much headway in the region as many of its partners in the Pacific would like," Powles said. The Biden administration has failed to successfully reopen an embassy in Kiribati, and the US has "a very small footprint on the ground," she added.
With Trump's return to power, there are heightened concerns that cuts to USAID funding, and Washington's impending withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization "will further damage US standing in the region," Powles said. The climate crisis is one of the region's biggest security concerns. Pacific islands are among the most climate-vulnerable places on Earth, disproportionately impacted by global warming despite contributing the least to global emissions.
Sea level rise and warming waters, the loss of coral reefs, ocean acidification, diminishing freshwater and fish supplies, and disaster recovery support from more powerful cyclones are among the most pressing issues. Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape said last month that a US withdrawal from the climate accord would be "totally irresponsible." "Good global leaders are also responsible world statesmen. They are not only responsible to their own nation, but they are responsible to the planet," he said, according to CNN affiliate Radio New Zealand.
Beyond setting the US back on its own climate commitments, the withdrawal would also impact funding for climate resilience, disaster relief and health. "Trump's strategy in the Pacific will be highly transactional, and it will prioritize security above other forms of aid and cooperation," Powles said. Among a series of executive orders Trump signed on his first day in office was one to increase the US Coast Guard's presence globally, including in the Pacific region.
Powles added that due to Trump's transactional nature, there are concerns that Pacific islands will be forced to choose between aid from China and the US. But Victoria University of Wellington's Fraenkel said the island nations "are not fools." He added: "Certainly anything that isolates Kiribati from New Zealand or Australia, makes them more likely to look elsewhere." But the impression that the island nations "are simply beguiled by Beijing's blandishments is a slightly crude description."
