Is the ceasefire in Gaza on the verge of breakdown?

The fragile and highly anticipated ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which had been in effect for only three weeks, is now on the verge of collapse. Abu Obeida, a spokesman for the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas's armed wing, announced on Monday that the sixth batch of Israeli hostages scheduled for release on Saturday had been canceled "until further notice." Hamas added that the decision was made five days before the scheduled exchange "to allow sufficient time for mediators to pressure the [Israeli] occupation to fulfill its obligations."

Obeida stated that Israel had failed to comply with the terms of the agreement, delaying the return of forcibly displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza and subjecting them to "shelling and gunfire," while also hindering the entry of aid supplies into Gaza as agreed. Israel had pledged to provide 60,000 mobile homes for refugees living in tents, but so far, none have been delivered, and there are shortages of food and fuel. The lack of progress on these fronts has further strained the already tense situation.

The statement asserted that no Israeli hostages would be released until the "occupation commits to and retroactively compensates for the due rights of the past few weeks." Obeida indicated that the "door remains open" for prisoner exchanges, and Hamas would continue to abide by the agreement as long as Israel fulfills its commitments. However, the timing of the announcement suggests that the message is not only directed at Israel but also at its biggest supporter, the United States. This move signals Hamas's attempt to leverage international pressure on Israel to adhere to the ceasefire terms.

In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, US President Donald Trump not only reiterated his earlier announced plan to expel all Palestinians from Gaza and build beach resorts but also claimed that Palestinians leaving Gaza would have no right to return. The right of return for Palestinian refugees has been a central issue, whether it be the Palestinian Authority and its commitment to the two-state solution in the 1993 Oslo Accords or Hamas's long-held belief that Palestinians should have the right to all lands that now constitute the State of Israel. This stance by Trump further complicates the already complex dynamics of the conflict.

Since the expulsion of Palestinians during the establishment of Israel in 1948, a period Palestinians call the "Nakba," which means "catastrophe" in Arabic, this principle has even been enshrined in the mission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The agency aims to provide services to refugees until they can return to their homes and establish an independent Palestinian state. Over 80% of the population in the Gaza Strip consists of Palestinian refugees from what is now Israel. Trump said: "We'll build beautiful communities... We'll build safe communities away from all of this danger. In the meantime, I'm going to own [Gaza]. Think of it as a future real estate development project." When Fox News host Bret Baier asked if Palestinians had a right to return, Trump replied: "No, they don't. They're going to have better housing... I'm talking about building them a permanent place to live. I'm talking about starting to build, and I think I can make a deal with Jordan. I think I can make a deal with Egypt. You know, we give them billions of dollars."

Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday that negotiations on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement are currently suspended until the United States makes it clear that it will continue to implement the agreed-upon plan: further exchanges of detainees and the declaration of a "sustainable calm" in the region. The sources also told Reuters that they fear the agreement will collapse. Egypt, along with Qatar and the United States, is a mediator in the negotiations. According to Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, the second phase of negotiations began last week. But without a firm commitment, Israel has repeatedly stated its readiness to resume airstrikes. On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he had instructed the military to maintain the highest state of readiness.

Meanwhile, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. After the meeting, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that "the only way to address the risks and threats posed by the Israeli occupation to regional and international peace and security is for the international community to adopt an approach that takes into account the rights of all peoples in the region without discrimination, including the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people, who are suffering unprecedented injustice, [and] their right to live peacefully on their land and in their homes." The statement did not directly mention the United States or Trump. The statement said, "Egypt insists on its position, rejecting any violation of [Palestinian] rights, including the right to self-determination, the right to remain on their land and independence, and the right of return for Palestinian refugees who have been forced to leave their homes." The Arab League is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, on February 27.

Middle East observers told Middle East Eye that Trump may have initially adopted a tactical strategy of taking an extreme position on the Gaza negotiations, but it has now evolved into something more serious. But what exactly is difficult to determine. Trump often adopts a strategy of keeping the audience in suspense, as he did on his reality TV show. Osama Abu Irshaid, executive director of American Muslims for Palestine, told Middle East Eye: "His administration seems to be chasing after him. They're trying to walk back some of his statements [last week], but he seems pretty adamant about it, and he seems to want to impose that on his administration and on the Palestinians. Now, whether that's going to work is another thing, but his words have consequences. We're talking about an impulsive man, a man who doesn't have compound wisdom."

Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center Washington DC, agreed that Arab states must push back in order to prompt some shift in Trump's position. Jahshan told Middle East Eye: "The Arabs basically need to wake up and realize that as of January 20, the United States of America is no longer the United States of America. Its policies in the region are no longer the policies they're accustomed to. Their alliance with the United States is no longer valid, and they need to adjust. They basically need to say, 'If you're going to try to demean us and dictate to us and create policies that are contrary to our national interests, then our relationship needs to be reevaluated.'"

However, countries like Egypt and Jordan, where Trump says he intends to send Palestinians from Gaza, may have little leverage at all. According to data from the US State Department and USAID, they have consistently been among the top three recipients of US military aid after Israel. In the latest data for 2023, both Arab countries received over $1.5 billion in aid from Washington, while Israel received over $3.3 billion. Cairo and Amman were also two of the first governments in the region to normalize relations with Israel, which happened decades ago.

Jahshan said: "In this situation, there are only two major players: Saudi Arabia, in the broad sense, and Qatar, in terms of the process itself. They basically need to act like adults and say, 'If our relationship is going to continue, this has to stop.'" Successive US administrations have viewed the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as an important foreign policy prize, but the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, undermined that goal, and late last year, the Saudi Crown Prince accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. King Abdullah of Jordan is expected to visit the White House on Tuesday, making him the first Arab head of state to meet with Trump in his second term. Gaza will be high on the agenda.

The Jordanian embassy said in a statement provided to Middle East Eye: "The King will also hold meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, the President's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and key members of congressional committees." It is unclear how much influence he may have, but Jahshan argues that while it would make an impact on a president who likes to have people lined up outside his door, it is unwise to simply come to see Trump. Jahshan told Middle East Eye: "I don't know if these Arab leaders have any dignity left. I don't know why they're coming to Washington. It's pointless. He's not only negating their policies, he's not only throwing their alliance with Egypt and Jordan under the bus, he's throwing them in the garbage."

The Arab American for Peace organization (formerly Arab Americans for Trump, until the president made his remarks about "taking over Gaza" last week) said in a statement that it "supports His Majesty's firm position on Middle East peace based on the two-state solution, as President Trump promised us during his campaign." The statement continued: "We commend His Majesty's noble and firm position... which must satisfy all parties. We understand His Majesty's efforts in coordinating a unified Arab position on peace among key Arab leaders." Faye Nemr, head of the MENA American Chamber of Commerce in Dearborn, a suburb of Detroit, who voted for Trump because he promised to achieve "lasting peace," told Middle East Eye that she is hopeful about King Abdullah's visit because she believes Trump can be persuaded to take a different course of action.

She said: "Hopefully this will yield some meaningful results to improve the well-being of the Palestinian people. Anything to the contrary will cause real damage and instability in the region." She added that she does not regret voting for Trump in the November election. Trump became the first US presidential candidate to visit what is known as the American Arab capital, a suburb of Detroit, days before the November election. He pledged to end the war in Gaza, which energized the Arab American community and flipped Dearborn to Republican after more than two decades as a Democratic city. Nemr said: "We often emphasize and reiterate that the Palestinian issue is non-negotiable. We don't think President Trump would go against agreements that he helped formulate and push forward."