Saudi Arabia may be expanding ballistic missile force, satellite images show

According to newly released satellite imagery, Saudi Arabia may be quietly modernizing and expanding its long-range missile capabilities. Fabian Hinz, a research fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), analyzed the images and released a report on Thursday.

Riyadh initially established its long-range surface-to-surface missile system in the 1980s in response to the Iran-Iraq War and the widespread proliferation of missile capabilities in the region. Since then, details about the development of its missile program have been scarce, as the Gulf kingdom rarely displays its long-range weapons publicly.

The IISS report found that an underground missile base appears to be under construction near the central Saudi Arabian town of Al Nabhaniyah. The report added that construction began in 2019 and was largely completed by early 2024. This base is the first facility of its kind built since the 1980s.

Hinz stated that the indicators of a missile base at the site include: administrative buildings in a similar style to other Saudi missile bases, similar geographical separation between the underground complex and above-ground residential and administrative areas, and tunnel entrances resembling existing bases. Contractor records also show that the project in Al Nabhaniyah falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense.

The report also added that new construction has been carried out at Saudi Arabia's existing missile force base in Wadi al-Dawasir. The latest addition is a large building, which may be used as an operational or support building within the complex. The IISS also noted signs of modernization and expansion at the headquarters of the Riyadh missile base, as well as new tunnels or underground sections at the bases in Al Kharj, Al Ruwaidah, and Sulayyil.

Saudi Arabia's long-range missile capabilities remain highly secretive. The kingdom conducted a large-scale military exercise in 2014, showcasing its Chinese-made Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles, marking the first public display of these missiles. In December 2021, CNN cited a U.S. intelligence assessment reporting that Saudi Arabia was actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with Chinese assistance. The Intercept reported in May 2022, citing U.S. intelligence sources, that Riyadh planned to import Chinese ballistic missiles under a project called "Crocodile."

As part of Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" plan, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil, the kingdom is trying to promote the development of its domestic defense manufacturing industry. "Saudi Arabia’s apparent non-use of ballistic missiles in its operations against Ansarallah (the Houthis) suggests that these systems may be used more as a strategic deterrent than an operational capability," Hinz wrote. "As such, their true role may only become apparent in a crisis."