Gaza ceasefire once again in doubt as first phase nears end

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip was originally nearing its end, but now faces renewed uncertainty. Previously, after the release of the final six Israeli hostages due to be released in this phase, Israel was supposed to release over 600 Palestinian prisoners, which would have been the largest single release to date. The success of the ceasefire is crucial for de-escalating the conflict.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced an indefinite postponement of the release, demanding that Hamas cease its alleged "despicable use of hostages for propaganda." Hamas, in turn, has accused Israel of deliberately sabotaging the ceasefire agreement. This marks the latest significant obstacle on the path toward ultimately achieving a permanent cessation of hostilities and beginning the reconstruction of Gaza. The international community is closely monitoring the situation.

Israel had complained about the chaotic nature of the initial hostage transfer process, claiming that the hostages' personal safety was threatened. Subsequently, Israel stated that Hamas violated the terms of the agreement by failing to release a female civilian hostage, Arbel Yehud. In response, Israel postponed the opening of the passage for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to return to northern Gaza for 48 hours. The issue was resolved only after Arbel Yehud was additionally released before the next scheduled transfer on Saturday. This highlights the fragility of the agreement.

Hamas then accused Israel of failing to fulfill its promise to allow heavy machinery, tents, and caravans to enter Gaza. Afterward, Hamas stated that it would not proceed with the next hostage transfer as planned. This prompted threats from Netanyahu and U.S. President Trump that a full-scale war in Gaza would resume if the hostages were not released according to the agreement. With time running short, Hamas agreed to release the hostages, averting immediate escalation.

Just in the past few days, the remains purportedly of Shiri Bibas, which Hamas handed over on Thursday, were confirmed not to be her. This sparked fresh outrage and shock in Israel, as the image of Shiri trying to protect her two young children when they were abducted on October 7, 2023, was seen as the most potent symbol of the day's horrors. Netanyahu condemned Hamas for a "cruel and evil violation" of the agreement. Ultimately, Hamas provided another set of remains within a day, which were confirmed to be those of Shiri Bibas, and the ceasefire was maintained at the last moment. The emotional toll on the families is immense.

All of these events indicate that the ceasefire process remains extremely fragile. These incidents may also have contributed to the fact that the second phase of negotiations, originally scheduled to begin earlier this month, has not yet commenced. Time is running out, with the first phase of the ceasefire agreement set to expire in a week. Hamas has proposed a one-time release of the remaining hostages slated for the second phase, but only on the condition that Israel withdraws all its troops from Gaza and permanently ends the war. This proposal adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

Israel, on the other hand, demands that Hamas completely disarm, a demand that Hamas has so far rejected. The elaborately staged ceremonies for each hostage transfer, strongly condemned by Netanyahu, are designed to show that Hamas remains a force to be reckoned with in Gaza. In Israel, right-wing figures are calling on the government to resume the war against Hamas, while the families of the hostages—supported by a majority of the Israeli public—say that ensuring the release of the remaining hostages is the top priority above all else. Public opinion is deeply divided on the best course of action.

Trump's Gaza plan has introduced new uncertainty into the situation. The third phase of the ceasefire agreement aims to put Gaza on the path to reconstruction and recovery. Arab nations are rushing to propose concrete alternatives, namely that Palestinians will continue to reside in Gaza while reconstruction takes place, rather than being displaced from the enclave as envisioned by Trump's plan. International cooperation is essential for successful rebuilding efforts.

The future governance of Gaza remains a key sticking point, with Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and Arab nations seemingly proposing conflicting scenarios to date. These issues will require difficult negotiations, negotiations that will take place under the constant threat of a return to war, with some on both sides still advocating for a resumption of hostilities. But for now, mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States may need to exert every effort to complete even the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. The stakes are incredibly high for all involved.