Netanyahu’s political calculus that sent tanks into Jenin

Early Monday morning, 56-year-old Ahmed Amouri watched with bitterness as three Israeli tanks rolled into his hometown of Jenin in the occupied West Bank. The last time he saw tanks there was more than two decades ago, when Israel tried to quell the Second Intifada in 2002.

This time, the sight seemed to elicit more humor than panic. He joined onlookers who took selfies in front of the armored vehicles or threw stones at the tanks as they entered Jenin. "There's no point in driving those tanks all the way here. The city is empty!" said the father of five.

"I, along with tens of thousands of others, have already been displaced, and they won't find anyone to fight in the refugee camp unless they are battling their own demons," he said. On January 26, he and his 14 family members were forced to leave the Jenin refugee camp, and he followed the tanks from the village of Wad Burqin, about a 10-minute walk from his home in the Jenin refugee camp.

The West Bank refugee camps are home to thousands of Palestinians whose ancestors were ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs in 1948 to make way for the establishment of the State of Israel. Over the years, armed resistance has sprung up there. In 2002, when Israeli tanks bulldozed the alleys of these refugee camps, fighters were ready with booby traps and ambushes.

But this week, when three tanks entered Jenin and stationed themselves in the Jabriyat neighborhood, they met no resistance. The tank deployment comes after more than a month of Israeli attacks on the occupied West Bank, dubbed "Operation Iron Wall," which began just as a ceasefire in Gaza took effect. Analysts suggest Israel's motives are political, not security-driven, and are seen as an effort to appease far-right Israeli politicians angered by the ceasefire.

Since late January, attacks in the West Bank have killed at least 61 people and displaced more than 40,000. "The war on Gaza and now the war on the West Bank are part of Israel's collective punishment strategy," said Wasel Abu Yousef, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization. "Destroying Palestinian cities and displacing residents is... a political tactic aimed at strengthening Israeli control over the occupied territories," he added, paving the way for the construction of more illegal Israeli settlements.

Analysts say the latest developments in Jenin are Israel testing its vision for the West Bank, especially after Defense Minister Israel Katz said those displaced from the refugee camp would not be allowed to return. Palestinian political analyst Ahmed Abu Hijleh believes the tank deployment is part of Israel's strategy to reshape the security and governance structure of the West Bank.

"What is happening in Jenin is... about redefining Israeli control and potentially integrating elements of the Palestinian Authority security forces into an Israeli-dominated framework," he said. He added that the attacks are also linked to Israel's push to dissolve the refugee camps and the concept of Palestinians as refugees, which became evident when it launched what appeared to be a campaign against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.

"Canceling UNRWA is an integral part of eliminating the Palestinian right of return. If the Jenin refugee camp is demolished, it will set a precedent for other refugee camps in the West Bank, turning them into ordinary urban communities and forcing Palestinians to integrate into an Israeli-controlled municipal system," he explained.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces growing domestic discontent over his handling of the Gaza war and the ceasefire agreement reached despite his far-right partners, the escalation in the West Bank is a political diversion. His far-right allies, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have long called for the annexation of the West Bank and the expulsion of Palestinians.

"Netanyahu is trying to survive politically by offering military escalation as a concession to his far-right coalition," said Suleiman Bisharat, director of the Yabous Strategic Studies Center. "Deploying tanks in Jenin is... a performance designed to send a message to his base that he is taking decisive action" and "deterring Palestinians into submission." "By deploying heavy military machinery, it aims to create a sense of the inevitability of its control over the West Bank."

Palestinian analyst Ahmed Rafik Awad, director of the Jerusalem Center for Political Studies, said that while Israel aims to portray its military operations as necessary security measures, the excessive use of force in the West Bank could reignite widespread Palestinian resistance. "The level of brutality we are seeing - mass arrests, house demolitions and continued attacks - could push Palestinians towards another intifada," Bisharat warned. "If Israel continues this level of violence, we may see a return to mass popular confrontations similar to the First and Second Intifadas."

Awad agreed, saying that in the face of the international community's "silent" response, and "without real consequences, Netanyahu and his far-right allies will continue to expand settlements, erase refugee camps, and consolidate the occupation under the guise of security." For Palestinians like Amouri, the presence of Israeli tanks in Jenin is a frustrating reminder that the occupation is deepening. "We have lived under their occupation all our lives. This is nothing new. In fact, it's all too familiar," he said.