Cook Islands China deal riles allies as West’s grip loosens

The Cook Islands may be small in size, but the ambitions of its leaders are not to be underestimated. Prime Minister Mark Brown's signing of a series of agreements with China without consulting the public or New Zealand (a close ally of the Cook Islands) has sparked growing discontent and concern. This move has raised questions about the Cook Islands' strategic alignment in the Pacific region.

These agreements mark the first of their kind between the Cook Islands and a non-traditional ally. The agreements cover infrastructure, shipbuilding, tourism, agriculture, technology, education, and, potentially crucially, deep-sea mineral exploration. Brown has stated that his decisions will be based on the "long-term interests" of the Cook Islands, a remote nation rich in resources but vulnerable to climate change. The focus on deep-sea mineral exploration highlights the potential economic benefits and environmental concerns.

Not everyone agrees with his assessment. These sweeping new agreements with Beijing have led to protests in Rarotonga (the Cook Islands' largest island) and a no-confidence vote against Brown in parliament, which he survived earlier this week. The agreements have also raised concerns in Australia, another strong ally of the Cook Islands. These protests reflect a growing unease about the implications of closer ties with China.

New Zealand has stated that it was "blindsided" by the agreements with China, but Brown argues that his country is independent and does not need to consult Wellington on matters he deems irrelevant to New Zealand. Nevertheless, he has tried to reassure both Australia and New Zealand that the agreements with China will not supplant their relationships. This apparent snub comes at a time when the West's hold on the Pacific region appears to be loosening. The need for reassurance underscores the delicate balance of power in the region.

China's rise in the Pacific is nothing new. Whether it's a security deal with the Solomon Islands or providing medical services in Tonga, China's influence in the region is growing. The United States and its allies have been trying to counter this trend. However, with the Trump administration upending relationships with allies like Ukraine and becoming increasingly unpredictable, a new dynamic is at play. This unpredictable dynamic creates opportunities for China to expand its influence.

Since the 1960s, the Cook Islands has had a so-called "free association" relationship with its former colonizer, New Zealand, meaning Wellington provides assistance on matters such as defense and foreign affairs, and Cook Islanders hold New Zealand citizenship. The two countries have a very close relationship. Roughly 15,000 Cook Islanders live in the Pacific island nation, but as many as 100,000 live in New Zealand and Australia. Culturally, the majority Cook Islands Māori are closely related to, but distinct from, New Zealand Māori. The strong cultural and historical ties between the Cook Islands and New Zealand are deeply valued.

The agreements with China are not the only sign that Brown wants to move away from New Zealand, raising concerns. He recently dropped a proposal to introduce Cook Islands passports. "It [the relationship with New Zealand] ties us together politically, and it ties us to our brothers and sisters in Aotearoa [the Māori name for New Zealand] – they left our shores, they sailed to Aotearoa. We need to remember that," said Cook Islands resident Jackie Tuara at a recent demonstration against Brown's China deals. The introduction of Cook Islands passports could symbolize a shift towards greater independence.

In a nation not accustomed to large-scale protests, hundreds gathered outside parliament in Rarotonga holding signs that read "Stay with New Zealand." Others waved their New Zealand passports. "Let's stand with countries that have the same democratic principles as us, aren't we a democracy?" Ms. Tuara said. "We don't want to see our land and our ocean sold to the highest bidder. These resources are ours – for our children, for their future." The protests highlight the deep-seated concerns about the potential consequences of closer ties with China.

Yet for all those who object to Brown's recent moves away from New Zealand, there are also many Cook Islanders who support him. China expert Phillip Ivanov clearly agrees with the prime minister, saying that "Pacific island nations have their own agency, their own motivations and their own capacity." He argues that recent developments in the Cook Islands "are all part of that small great game that Australia, China and New Zealand are playing in the Pacific. It's like a game of whack-a-mole." This perspective emphasizes the agency of Pacific island nations in navigating geopolitical complexities.

Testing the Waters

While the U.S. has long been the dominant force in the region when it comes to security and military matters, China has been trying to strengthen its ties with these small but strategically important Pacific island nations through aid, infrastructure and security agreements. In response, countries like the U.S. and the U.K. have stepped up their diplomatic presence in the region. Australia has also made it clear that it will be doubling down on its support. But it's unclear to what extent U.S. President Donald Trump will continue his predecessors' commitment to countering China in the region – and Beijing is taking advantage of that. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitment creates opportunities for China to expand its influence.

Last week, flights to and from New Zealand and Australia were rerouted after China conducted military exercises involving live fire. Australia and New Zealand have been tracking three Chinese warships sailing off Australia's east coast, in what experts say is an escalation and an unexpected show of force. "It's a very effective way to test the diplomatic responses in the Australia-China and New Zealand-China bilateral relationships, and how far the U.S. is prepared to go to bat for [its allies]," said Euan Graham, a defense analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The military exercises serve as a reminder of China's growing military capabilities.

"It also shows that in a numbers game, China will always be ahead of countries with smaller navies, and Australia's navy is at a historic low." China's ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, told national broadcaster ABC that Beijing's actions were appropriate and he would not apologize for them. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been keen to stress that no international laws were broken and that the exercises were conducted in international waters. Indeed, many have pointed out that Australia and its allies routinely sail warships in the South China Sea. The differing perspectives highlight the complexities of navigating international relations.

"I think this is China wanting to exploit the mess that Trump has currently created," said Mihai Sora, the Pacific Islands program director at the Lowy Institute in Australia. "China is using this moment to [say], look, Australia, you're actually on your own. Where's the U.S. in all of this?" The perceived absence of the U.S. strengthens China's position in the region.

A Balancing Act

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has candidly admitted that "we are in a state of permanent competition in the region, that's the reality." In speaking publicly about the warships last week, the Australian government sought to reassure the public about China's intentions while also wanting to tell Australians that everything was under control. This is no coincidence, as Australia is set to hold federal elections in the coming months. "[Opposition leader Peter] Dutton comes from a national security and home affairs background, so the government doesn't want to give him any space to criticize Labor," Phillip Ivanov said. "Being soft on China would be disastrous for them, given what's happening in the U.S. and with our own elections." The upcoming elections add another layer of complexity to Australia's relationship with China.

But it also underscores the predicament facing this part of the world. "Canberra will contest every move that Beijing tries to make...that reflects that there are divergent strategic interests between Canberra and Beijing," said James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. But, he added, they also have "massive common ground" – China is Australia and New Zealand's largest trading partner. "So you have to be able to ride both of those horses at the same time." Balancing strategic interests with economic realities is a key challenge.

It's not an easy relationship – it never has been. The bigger wild card is the U.S., a traditional ally. While many in the Trump administration continue to portray China as a grave threat, America's allies are unsure what to expect of Washington's relationship with Beijing. Now, with Trump threatening steel and aluminum tariffs and pulling back on foreign aid, Australia feels more isolated than ever. The recent activity of Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea underscores this sense of isolation. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy adds to the complexity of the situation.

"I wouldn't see them as military acts, but more political acts using military hardware," Mr. Ivanov said. "I think the political act is to say, look, we can do this anytime we want. There's nothing you can do about it, and the U.S. is doing nothing because they're busy destroying the global system." The political acts serve as a reminder of China's growing influence and the shifting geopolitical landscape.