Gaza ceasefire deal hits critical moment as first phase ends

The first six-week phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement concluded on Saturday, with the future direction fraught with uncertainty. Over the 42 days since January 19th, there have been moments of hope, grief, and anger, but what was scheduled to happen during this period has been completed, including the release of Israeli hostages and the freeing of Palestinian prisoners. This initial progress provides a foundation for future negotiations, though significant hurdles remain.

However, negotiations on the second phase, which includes the release of all remaining living hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, have barely begun. Talks started in Cairo on Friday, but the Israeli delegation returned that evening. Reports indicate that negotiations will continue "remotely," with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planning late-night consultations with the delegation, senior ministers, and intelligence chiefs. The continuation of dialogue is crucial, but the path forward remains unclear.

Holding such a meeting late on the Sabbath is highly unusual. No statement was issued after the consultations, and reports say they will continue on Saturday night. Israel seems to want to extend the current phase by six weeks to secure the release of more hostages and more Palestinian prisoners, but without withdrawing its troops. This extension would allow for continued progress on hostage releases, but the issue of troop withdrawal remains a key point of contention.

The Israeli government insists that Hamas, which was responsible for the October 7, 2023 massacre and the abduction of 251 hostages, must lay down its arms and relinquish any form of power in the Gaza Strip. Israel also stated that it is not ready to leave the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian-Gaza border, a process that was supposed to begin on Saturday. An unnamed Israeli official stated in a statement sent to reporters on Friday: "We will not allow Hamas murderers to patrol our border again in pickup trucks and with guns, nor will we allow them to rearm through smuggling." These security concerns are paramount for Israel's continued participation in any agreement.

Last summer, Netanyahu's insistence on keeping Israeli troops stationed along the Philadelphi Corridor led to the failure of efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire. On Friday night, Hamas said it would not agree to extend the first phase if the U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediators could not guarantee that the second phase would eventually occur. Hamas appears determined to maintain influence in Gaza, even if it might be willing to cede day-to-day governance to other Palestinian actors, including the Palestinian Authority based in the West Bank. The differing objectives of both sides continue to pose a challenge to reaching a long-term resolution.

Egypt has been developing a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza as an alternative to proposals from the era of Donald Trump to take over the territory and evacuate its entire civilian population. But Western diplomats are not optimistic that the plan, which was scheduled to be unveiled at an Arab League summit in Cairo next Tuesday, has sound security and governance arrangements that would satisfy Israeli needs. The complexities of rebuilding Gaza while addressing security concerns require careful consideration and international cooperation.

This is a critical moment. After the emotional rollercoaster of the past few weeks, Israelis have come to expect the gradual release of hostages. It is believed that 24 are still alive and awaiting release, while another 39 are presumed dead. Israelis desperately want them all freed, not subjected to those sickening and enraging propaganda displays that have sickened and enraged the entire nation. If the whole process now stops, public anger towards Hamas and their own government will increase. Further street protests are being planned, including one at Tel Aviv's "Hostages Square" on Saturday night. "We demand the return of all the remaining 59 hostages before day 50 of the agreement," read the invitation issued by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum headquarters. "Now is our only chance – we won't get another one." The pressure on both sides to find a resolution is immense.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also joined the calls, urging the parties to "spare no effort to avoid a breakdown of this agreement." On Saturday night, Hamas released a video, once again shocking Israelis with the sight of hostages paraded before the cameras. The video, the latest in a series of cruel, heart-wrenching releases over the past 16 months, shows five Israeli hostages, two of whose faces are blurred. Two of the hostages, Iair Horn and Sagui Dekel Chen, were released two weeks ago. The use of propaganda videos underscores the deep-seated tensions and the challenges in achieving a lasting peace.

In the video, Iair can be seen hugging and saying goodbye to his brother Eitan, suggesting that the scene was filmed shortly before Iair and Sagui were released. The emotions are raw, and the scene is deeply distressing, with both brothers in tears and Eitan pleading with Benjamin Netanyahu to stick to the ceasefire agreement and release all the remaining hostages. Clearly, the video is intended to once again exploit the vulnerable emotions of the Israeli public and put pressure on the Israeli Prime Minister. The emotional toll of the conflict is evident in these personal stories and adds urgency to the need for a resolution.

Netanyahu's office issued a statement accusing Hamas of producing "another cruel propaganda video in which our abductees are forced to participate in psychological warfare." The statement said that Israel would not be intimidated by Hamas's propaganda. "We will continue to act relentlessly for the return of all the abductees, until the achievement of all the goals of the war." Despite the propaganda efforts, Israel remains committed to its objectives in the conflict.

It is widely believed that the war will start again sooner or later. For the hostages, and for the two million Palestinians in Gaza who are trying to rebuild their lives in the current fragile peace, this is a bleak prospect. In a place where families are still digging bodies from the rubble with their bare hands, the thought of a renewed outbreak of a conflict that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives is chilling. The central Gaza Strip, which has so far been spared the worst of the fighting, could suffer severe devastation from any return to war, making it even harder to sustain life in this ravaged land. The future remains uncertain, and the potential for further suffering is a constant threat.