China leads growth in nuclear weapons as campaigners warn disarmament efforts 'eroding'

The latest research shows that the number of deployable nuclear weapons worldwide continues to grow steadily, with China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan increasing their nuclear arsenals. Simultaneously, the United Nations warns that disarmament efforts are being "eroded," highlighting the urgency of addressing nuclear proliferation.

A report released in conjunction with the UN non-proliferation talks this week indicates that there are currently more than 9,605 nuclear weapons "available for use" globally, up from 9,585 last year. According to the latest Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) Monitor report, 40% of these radioactive weapons are deployed and "ready for immediate use on submarines and land-based missiles, and at bomber bases," raising concerns about the potential for rapid escalation.

The report notes that the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide has slowly decreased, as countries such as Russia and the United States are retiring aging warheads. However, the number of weapons "available for use" is steadily increasing. Statistics compiled by Norwegian People's Aid and the Federation of American Scientists show that China currently has 600 "available for use" warheads, while India and Pakistan have 180 and 170 respectively, and North Korea possesses 50, indicating a growing regional nuclear arms race.

Despite a decline in the US "total warhead inventory," the military superpower still possesses 3,700 "available for use" weapons, while its Cold War rival Russia has 4,299 nuclear warheads still in use. Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists warns: "Unless there is a breakthrough in arms control and disarmament, that upward trend is expected to continue as countries modernize their arsenals and, in some cases, expand them," emphasizing the need for renewed diplomatic efforts.

While anti-nuclear campaigners are discouraged by the upward trend in active nuclear arsenals, they are also encouraged by the increasing number of countries joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). "At a time when peace is essential and the world is reeling from tensions and a growing nuclear threat, the TPNW is a beacon of light on the horizon," said Raymond Johansen, Secretary General of Norwegian People's Aid. He added: "The treaty’s continued growth in membership strengthens the global norm against nuclear weapons and increases the stigmatization of these weapons and their use as a national means," highlighting the treaty's growing influence.

At the opening of the Third Meeting of States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in New York this week, a senior UN representative warned that "key disarmament instruments are being eroded." Izumi Nakamitsu, High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, said she remained concerned that the current global turmoil could exacerbate public fears and increase trust in the "false narrative" that nuclear weapons are the "ultimate provider of safety," underscoring the dangerous consequences of such beliefs.

During the week-long talks, an Australian official will observe the deliberations, as the Australian government has not yet signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's expression of willingness to do so before the 2022 election. A spokesperson for the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation: "The Australian Government shares the desire of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons for a world without nuclear weapons," indicating a degree of alignment with the treaty's goals.

The DFAT spokesperson emphasized that Australia continues to support the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and believes that "the best way to advance nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament is to ensure the NPT is implemented and advanced." "We will continue to strengthen the global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime through practical and constructive efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, reduce the risk of their use, and pave the way for their elimination," the spokesperson stated, reaffirming Australia's commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons through alternative means.