Unpredictable AFL season 2025 set to be most open in years

The New Year on the calendar may be two months past, but for loyal Australian Football League (AFL) fans, the first game of the season marks the true beginning. The 2025 AFL season is filled with uncertainty, making it difficult to predict. The opening match between Brisbane and Geelong has been postponed, and the originally scheduled third game has also been delayed, with specific dates yet to be determined. This adds an element of suspense and anticipation for the season ahead.

These changes at the start of the season foreshadow an even more intense competition on the field this year. Never before has it been so difficult to distinguish between strong teams and good teams, good teams and average teams, and average teams and weaker teams. In the past five years, five different clubs have won the premiership, and 15 out of the league's 18 teams have reached the finals, highlighting the league's parity.

Last season's competition was particularly fierce. The eventual premiers, Brisbane, were outside the top eight at the end of Round 15. The Giants, Bulldogs, Eagles, and Blues also entered the finals race in Rounds 16, 17, 21, and 22, respectively. Fremantle and Essendon ultimately missed out on finals qualification but were both in the top four after Round 17. Even the reigning premiers, Collingwood, faltered, eventually finishing ninth, demonstrating the unpredictable nature of the competition.

In the 2025 AFL season, the strength of each team is even closer, making it more difficult to stand out. No team looks flawless, and almost every team is eager to make an impact in the September games. Teams will not only study their own tactics during the off-season but also those teams that prevented them from winning the premiership, aiming to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improvement.

Last season's premiers are usually the focus of study. Opposing teams will spend a lot of time during the off-season figuring out how to stop Brisbane, who won 14 of their 16 games at the end of the season. Brisbane's ability to tear apart opponents' defenses with diverse offensive tactics and control possession from the backline makes them hard to beat. For other teams, the challenge posed by Brisbane is different from that of most premiership teams in recent years, requiring a new approach to strategy.

In the late 2010s, Richmond achieved success with the concept of "controlled chaos" and a solid defense, and many teams tried to adopt similar principles or study how to limit them. Collingwood and the GWS Giants, led by former Richmond assistant coaches, quickly rose in the rankings, while other teams, including the 2022 premiers Geelong, also noticeably changed the speed and manner in which they moved the ball. Brisbane is slightly different from this model. While they still often play fast breaks, they more often adopt a kicking-first, possession-focused approach. The Brisbane Lions are the first premiership team since the 2018 West Coast Eagles to have more kicks than handballs, and by a margin exceeding the league average.

Last year, their uncontested mark differential was as high as +22 per game, far exceeding other teams. In contrast, most other premiership teams since the 2018 West Coast Eagles have been relatively balanced in this regard. This difference represents a divergence emerging in the league. While every senior coach is unique, many will draw on other experiences from their coaching careers. With numerous former Richmond followers now leading teams across the league, there may be a clash of ideologies next season.

In the past four seasons, one team has jumped from the bottom four on the ladder to the top eight, with the most recent example being Hawthorn's shocking rise last year. If the scope is widened to the bottom six, then this trend can be traced back to 2015. In fact, three premiership teams have risen from the bottom six to win the premiership in the space of three seasons: Richmond in 2017, Melbourne in 2021, and Collingwood in 2023. With a certain amount of strength and luck, success is not far away.

The current AFL fixture is a complex system that takes into account team and venue availability, public holidays, mandatory breaks, and each team's performance last season. The current fixture divides teams into three different groups – teams ranked in the top six, seven to twelve, and thirteen to eighteen last season. Teams in the top six, such as Sydney, will play two games against another two or three teams in the top six, making their schedule more difficult. Therefore, they will have fewer repeat matches against lower-ranked teams.

This has led to the aforementioned trend of teams rapidly rising from the bottom six to the top eight each year. Usually, this is accompanied by a year of injuries or bad luck, followed by a relatively easy schedule. All six bottom teams in the 2024 season will play two games against three other bottom six teams this year, giving them a real opportunity to capitalize by quickly improving their ranking. This is especially beneficial for Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Adelaide, who can leverage this opportunity to climb the ladder.

But as the GWS Giants learned last year, predicting the difficulty of the schedule is difficult. Most of their repeat opponents improved, turning their originally average schedule into one of the toughest in the AFL. This difference was enough to ruin a season – although the GWS Giants were strong enough to overcome the difficulties. The most important factor determining a team's performance is not who you will play, but which players you will have available, highlighting the importance of player health and availability.

Most AFL teams have relatively stable lineups each year, but the addition of new players and the retirement of old players can significantly impact a team's fortunes. Some teams have been hit hard by player departures. Richmond lost more talent last year than any other club, and some believe that this former premiership team may struggle to win a game. Collingwood brought in Dan Houston and Harry Perryman, doubling down on the team's current strength, and appear to have made the biggest gains in the 2025 off-season.

Collingwood appears to be the oldest team entering the 2025 season, suggesting that they are focused on winning in the present. Reigning premiers Brisbane lost only one notable player, but Joe Daniher's departure is very important. Whether they can find a replacement to make up for his impact on the forward line is one of the most important questions of the upcoming season, potentially impacting their offensive firepower.

The last factor to consider is trying to figure out how strong each team really was last year. Australian Rules Football is a wonderful sport, but it is also full of crucial moments and mistakes. Trying to account for luck – especially in closely contested matches – is often a good indicator of a team's underlying strength. Adelaide was one of the most disappointing teams in 2024, and they are expected to make the biggest gains this year simply by adjusting their performance in closely contested matches.

The Crows played in nine games decided by less than two goals, but only won two and drew one. This was a key factor in their finishing 15th with a percentage just under 100%. This could be the epitome of a team poised to return to the potential they showed in 2023. Fremantle were also unlucky last year and may have missed out on the finals due to some bad luck, as were the Bulldogs, who should have expected a top-four finish given the strength they showed.

Of course, there were also several teams that won more games than their underlying performance suggested. The main teams among these were Essendon and the GWS Giants, the latter of whom benefited from extremely fortunate goal-kicking luck on both offense and defense. Considering most of the above factors, this year's competition will be very intense. Expect the gap between 16th-ranked Richmond and 15th-ranked Essendon to be greater than the gap between third-ranked Brisbane and Essendon. This prediction does not take into account talent gained or lost in the off-season, nor does it account for players missing through injury.

A dozen All-Australian team members from the past two seasons are entering this season with some form of injury cloud. The health of players such as Marcus Bontempelli, Errol Gulden, and Zak Butters could determine the success or failure of a season. Last year was an unusually competitive season – almost unbelievably so. This year has already started in a way that no one predicted two weeks ago, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the AFL and the challenges teams face.