Ukraine ceasefire deal explained: here's what we know about the proposal Russia will consider next

Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal that would pause hostilities with Russia. This news is significant, but much work remains to be done before the war ends. The war has been ongoing for more than three years, and while both sides claim to want peace, Kyiv and Moscow have previously had major disagreements on the terms they would be willing to agree to.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is working to broker the deal, stating this week that "the ball is in Russia's court." Currently, known information about the negotiations includes a key meeting between the Ukrainian delegation and a U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that his team attended the summit with three main demands: to stop all aerial attacks, to ensure the safety of maritime transport, and to release all prisoners of war and detained civilians.

While it is unclear whether these demands were incorporated into the final proposal agreed to by Ukraine, they do provide clues as to the starting point for negotiations. Previously, several officials in Kyiv had ruled out signing any ceasefire agreement that included ceding Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces. However, Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that the meeting in Saudi Arabia included "conversations about territorial concessions." Ukraine currently also occupies Russian territory in the Kursk region, which is seen as a potential bargaining chip in negotiations.

The U.S. and Ukraine released a joint statement following the meeting in Saudi Arabia, stating that the proposal is for a 30-day ceasefire but could lead to "a lasting peace" and "could be extended by mutual agreement of both parties." Analysts believe that a ceasefire agreement is unlikely to be signed anytime soon unless both sides are prepared to compromise. Ukraine's desire for security guarantees (to deter future Russian attacks) and territorial concessions are two obvious obstacles.

Ukraine wants to ensure that any peace agreement with Russia includes measures to strengthen its defenses against future attacks. These measures could take many forms, with the most extreme option being Ukraine joining NATO. This would force the alliance's other 32 member states to join the fight if Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered another invasion. Russia has made it clear that it would view this move as a red line. Another potential security guarantee is the stationing of foreign troops and other military assets in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has also ruled out this option, stating that his country cannot accept it. These security guarantees are a key obstacle to any peace agreement. Zelenskyy is unlikely to agree to anything that is unpopular among Ukrainians.

Another key issue is territorial concessions. Despite Rubio's comments on Wednesday, Ukrainian officials have consistently maintained that they will not agree to cede territory to Russia. Moscow's forces currently occupy about 20% of Ukrainian territory. Russia has paid a heavy human and financial cost to achieve this goal. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of soldiers have died in the process. Agreeing to hand over land as part of a ceasefire agreement would run counter to Russia's apparent motivation to redraw the map at all costs, including human and financial ones.

Rubio stated that the U.S. and Russia will "engage" on Wednesday, but it is unclear when or if Moscow will provide feedback. U.S. President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that a delegation is traveling to Moscow to continue discussions. Flinders University analyst Dr. Jessica Gnauck stated that Putin is unlikely to accept the proposal as quickly as Zelenskyy. "Putin might be hesitant to sign onto this proposal because President Putin doesn't want it to look to his domestic Russian population that he can basically be bossed around by President Trump," she said.

Dr. Gnauck believes that any agreement on a proposed ceasefire is "still weeks away" and that Putin may delay until he can sell any agreement to the Russian people. Putin's forces have been advancing in recent weeks, particularly in the Kursk region, which could also influence negotiations. Ukraine's control of Russian territory (although much smaller than the large swathes of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces) is widely regarded as an important bargaining chip in peace talks. A ceasefire would halt Russia's momentum in the region. Professor Stefan Wolff, an international security professor at the University of Birmingham, stated that while Russia would consider the proposal, the country's president has an incentive to continue fighting.

"At the same time, they will continue to push very hard, whether it is in the Kursk region where they are trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their salient inside the Russian Federation or whether it is to push further on the Ukrainian mainland trying to capture all four regions that Putin claims are his motivation in Ukraine," he said. As part of Tuesday's meeting, the U.S. has agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This aid and intelligence sharing was paused last month after a heated meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump. Receiving military aid and intelligence from the U.S. would make it easier for Ukraine to defend against attacks and launch its own offensives against Russian targets, neither of which is conducive to a ceasefire.