Long range goals: Is shooting from outside the box a dying art in football?

“I did a simple calculation,” said James Yorke, director of football at StatsBomb. He pointed out that a shot from about 25 yards from goal has an expected goal value of about 0.03, meaning it takes roughly 33 shots to score one goal. At 20 yards, this number doubles, but is still only 0.06.

Even at 12 yards from goal, such as the penalty spot, where the opportunity seems significant, the chance of scoring is only about one in six. It's only when a player is inside the six-yard box that the probability of scoring approaches 50%. Yorke emphasized that people's intuition often overestimates the likelihood of scoring, and in reality, the probability of any shot going in is lower than we imagine.

Yorke explained that while the probability of scoring doesn't increase exponentially, it does rise significantly as the shooting position gets closer. The expected goals model he described is one of the most fundamental components of football analysis. However, less than a decade ago, using cold, hard numbers to assess shooting opportunities, rather than relying on intuition and optimism, was still a revolutionary practice.

Yorke mentioned that the expected goals model started to become popular and widely understood around 2012 to 2015. He believes that as a coach, it would be inconceivable not to incorporate the information provided by these models into the guidance given to players. So, has data changed tactics? Have coaches seen from the data that while long-range shots are impressive, trying to repeat them over a whole season reduces the chances of winning?

There is a precedent in basketball. In basketball, a successful long-range shot is worth three points instead of two, and analysis has actually led teams to attempt more long-range shots. However, experts in the field of football data do not believe their industry is the cause of this trend. Sarah Rudd stated at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March that data is forcing people to be more purposeful in how they analyze things, for example, people now ask: "What are the consequences if I shoot from outside the box?"

Rudd pointed out that even before mathematical models emerged, good teams tended to focus on taking high-quality shots from closer distances. One of her early projects at Arsenal was to assess whether the team was trying to "walk the ball into the net," as critics suggested. She found that this was indeed the case, but other good Premier League teams were doing the same. The data simply confirmed the wisdom of what good teams were already doing.

Ian Graham, former data analyst at Liverpool, believes that changes in tactical approaches have influenced the data, rather than the data influencing tactics. He stated that the reduction in shooting distance is a result of a shift in playing style. Compared to the era of long balls and shots from outside the box a decade ago, teams now play in a style closer to that of Guardiola and Klopp. He believes it's just a coincidence that it looks like it's related to data analysis.

High pressing by opponents means that when opportunities arise in today's game, attacking players are either closer to goal or have a clear attacking route. They no longer rely on clearances from defenders and hurried shots, as deep defensive lines keep them out of range. However, in December 2006, Taylor's thought process at Fratton Park was not so complex, he simply noticed that the ball bounced in an ideal position.

Taylor, who is now a coach, believes that players today think more. He stated that if you put players from December 2006 and players from today in the same room, they would be two completely different groups of people. Players have always faced internal pressure from coaches, teammates, and fans, but now the external pressure is greater. After a game, players might receive tens of thousands of messages from social media, which can influence their decisions.

Adam Smith, a data editor at Sky Sports, discovered a statistical quirk in November, which might confirm Taylor's theory that what players see on screen affects their performance on the pitch. A Netflix documentary series about David Beckham's career, with the first episode focusing on his famous long-range goal against Wimbledon in 1996, was released at the same time that the number of long-range shots from 30 yards or more quadrupled in the Premier League. A few weeks later, attempts at long-range shots seemed to return to previous levels.

In December 2006, social media was almost non-existent. Podcast analysis and YouTube video analysis didn't exist either. There were fewer televised matches, and highlights were hard to find. Social influence spread in a more personal way. In today's Premier League, competing systems and processes are striving for results, and players are cogs in a machine. However, the early 21st century was an era of individual heroism. Greatness came more from single acts of individuals. Those long-range shots from 25 yards out shaped the leaders of teams.

The list of Premier League players with the most goals from outside the box reflects the greatest stars and rivals of that era: Frank Lampard of Chelsea, Steven Gerrard of Liverpool, David Beckham of Manchester United, and Thierry Henry of Arsenal. When the ball fell to them 25 yards out, would they instinctively try to outdo other stars, unaffected by external criticism? Although these names are most closely associated with spectacular long-range shots, they were not the best, or rather, the most efficient, long-range shooters.

Since Stats Perform began collecting data in the 2003-04 season, the Premier League player with the most success in converting shots from outside the box into goals is Matheus Pereira, a Brazilian who played for West Brom for two seasons between 2019 and 2021 before moving to Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, Manchester City, known for their highly structured and refined attacks, also have a place among the most efficient long-range shooters, with Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, and Sergio Agüero all in the top five.

The entire list leans towards recent times, suggesting that current players are more selective when shooting from long range, taking fewer shots but with a higher success rate. Of course, behind every great long-range goal, there is a silent partner. The large number of long-range goals at this summer's European Championship drew attention to football, with some arguing that Adidas's ball – which contains sugarcane and wood pulp – was more favorable to forwards than goalkeepers. At the 2010 World Cup, the number of long-range goals was higher than average, while goalkeepers claimed that the trajectory of Adidas's Jabulani ball was unpredictable.

The 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons – the two seasons with the highest proportion of long-range goals in Premier League history – both used Nike's Total 90 Aerow II. This was the first time Nike stopped mentioning that the ball was "faster" in their promotional material, arguing that quality had to be "intrinsic." Perhaps they should have done so.