Analysis: Jordan faces ‘geopolitical blackmail’ after Trump Gaza demand

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has once again made remarks about transferring Palestinians in the Gaza Strip to Jordan and Egypt, a move that has intensified tensions with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Experts warn that this could make Jordan's King Abdullah II "vulnerable to geopolitical blackmail." This situation underscores the delicate balance Jordan must maintain in its foreign policy.

On January 25, Trump suggested that Jordan and Egypt receive approximately two million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, raising concerns about a U.S. attempt to ethnically cleanse Gaza. Both Jordanian and Egyptian leaders have rejected the proposal. However, Trump reiterated his idea on Thursday during a photo opportunity in the Oval Office, hinting at the influence he wields. "They'll do it. They'll do it… We do a lot for them, and they're going to do things for us," Trump told reporters, suggesting a quid pro quo.

Shawn Yoom, an associate professor of political science at Temple University, stated, "This… really constitutes a major confrontation." Yoom added, "King Abdullah II has said repeatedly that the 'alternative homeland' scenario and further Palestinian displacement is a red line… but Jordan is also directly reliant on U.S. aid and security assistance—the kingdom is vulnerable to geopolitical blackmail." Yoom has long studied issues in the Middle East and North Africa, providing a valuable perspective on the region's complexities.

Analysts generally believe that Trump may exploit Jordan's dependence on U.S. aid to coerce it into accepting Palestinians. The United States currently provides Jordan with $1.45 billion in bilateral foreign aid annually, making it one of the largest recipients of foreign aid, after Israel and Egypt. On January 20, Trump signed an executive order instructing all federal government agencies to suspend almost all foreign development assistance for 90 days, during which time the allocation of existing projects would also be suspended for review. A week later, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio approved a waiver allowing "life-saving humanitarian assistance" to continue during the 90-day review period, highlighting the urgency of some aid programs.

Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, stated that the suspension of aid would "affect all types of foreign assistance to the country, including budget support, sector budget support, development projects and humanitarian assistance, as well as military assistance." Yoom believes that freezing aid could be seen as "a power play by the new administration." Trump is implying that "any post-Gaza regional order must comply with U.S. rules… with old allies like Jordan having little say in it," signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics.

Analysts believe that if Trump leverages aid, Jordan may be forced to reconsider its alliances and seek funding from Gulf Arab states, Russia, China, or the European Union to fill the financial gap. Jeffrey Hughes, a professor at the University of Kinshasa, stated that this could also "force them… to implement extremely unpopular austerity measures, which will inevitably lead to protests." He also added, "This will directly hit the security apparatus, and it will be even worse because so much of the aid now goes through the military and police departments," potentially destabilizing the country.

This move could also exacerbate domestic tensions within Jordan. For over a year, citizens have been angered by Israel's war in Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of nearly 62,000 Palestinians, highlighting Jordan's dependence on the United States and Israel. A large segment of Jordan's population, including many Palestinians with Jordanian citizenship and over two million Palestinian refugees, are frustrated by the government's unwillingness to sever ties. In 2023, large-scale protests erupted over Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank, continuing for much of 2024. The Jordanian government responded with a crackdown, arresting hundreds of protesters and political opponents.

Jordan's importance to U.S. regional interests should mean that the country will have its foreign aid restored more quickly than other places. Yoom said, "What could help Jordan is the old-school, bipartisan consensus crowd in Washington that sees the Hashemites as crucial to U.S. foreign policy in the region, remembers Jordan's help with various U.S. wars and interventions for decades, and doesn't think it's worth undermining this 'oasis of moderation' in the long run." Toukan stated, "Trump needs to walk back this completely unrealistic proposal. If this becomes official U.S. policy, it will not only destabilize Jordan, but the entire region, including Egypt," emphasizing the potential for widespread repercussions.