Jordan ready for war with Israel if Palestinians are expelled into its territory

According to Middle East Eye, Jordan is prepared to declare war on Israel if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians into Jordanian territory. This warning comes after multiple statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who expressed his desire for Jordan and Egypt to absorb Palestinians as part of an operation to "clean up" the Gaza Strip. These suggestions have been met with strong resistance from both Jordan and Egypt.

Sources in Amman and Jerusalem told Middle East Eye that Jordan least desires war and is eager for a peaceful resolution. However, they insisted that Jordan would close its borders if refugees began to flood into the country. One source stated that if Israel attempted to reopen the border, it would constitute a "casus belli" (act justifying war). Jordan is aware that it cannot win a war with Israel, but believes it would have no other choice but to fight back, defending its sovereignty and stability.

Previously, Jordan deployed additional battalions to its western border after Amman made it clear that any attempt to force Palestinians across the border would be considered a serious violation of the country's 1994 peace treaty with Israel. In response, Israel created a new eastern division to guard its border with Jordan. A source told Middle East Eye that Trump's proposal is an "existential issue" for Jordan and the Hashemite Kingdom, noting that the country is the third most water-scarce nation in the world, exacerbating the potential refugee crisis.

Jordan's population of 12 million primarily resides in a narrow strip along the Israeli border, near the Jordan River. Sources say that Jordan simply cannot accommodate a large influx of refugees. While Israel possesses significant military resources and could quickly win a conventional war, it would have to control a vast territory bordering an open desert. The border between Israel and Jordan is 400 kilometers long, almost the length of the country, and 10 times the length of Israel's border with Gaza. The border area is mostly mountainous and rugged, with some areas virtually impossible to patrol.

This increases the likelihood of a protracted guerrilla war, like the ones that eventually drove the Americans out of Iraq and Afghanistan. It would almost certainly attract militants from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab countries. Jordan's eastern border is open desert. For years, Jordan has provided stability to Israel's eastern border, but that stability would vanish overnight if war broke out. Regardless, relations between the two countries have been cold. The Jordanian government has made no secret of its horror at the attacks on Gaza and its growing fear of settler violence and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.

Shortly after the start of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, Jordan's King Abdullah II declared: "No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt. That is a red line." However, last week Trump declared that he had spoken to King Abdullah by phone and told him, "I want you to take more [refugees]" as part of a plan to "clean up" the Gaza Strip of 1.5 million people. At a meeting with European officials in Brussels on Wednesday, King Abdullah reiterated "Jordan's steadfast view of Palestinians remaining on their land and attaining their legitimate rights based on the two-state solution." Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi also stated on Monday that "any discussion of alternative homelands [for Palestinians]...is unacceptable."

The situation is further complicated by Trump's cuts in aid to Jordan. There are concerns that the U.S. president may condition the resumption of aid on Jordan accepting Palestinian refugees. The presence of U.S. military bases in Jordan is another complicating factor. An influx of refugees would upset the country's delicate ethnic balance. More than 2 million Jordanians are registered as Palestinian refugees. Other estimates are higher, possibly representing a majority of the population.

The rapid influx of refugees into Jordan during the 1948 Nakba and again in 1967 led to the "Black September" events of 1970, when the Hashemite Kingdom suppressed Palestinian factions it believed were trying to seize power. Sources say Jordan fears that an influx of refugees could lead to another civil war. The Jordanian population is already angry about the conflict in Gaza, and refugees from Gaza and the West Bank would constitute another destabilizing factor. On Saturday, senior diplomats from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar met in Cairo to reject the forced displacement of Palestinians in any form.

In a joint statement, the countries said: "We affirm our rejection of attempts to undermine the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, whether through settlement activities, or through the displacement or annexation of land, or through emptying the land owners...in any form, under any circumstances or for any reason." Trump's proposal to displace Palestinians to Jordan dates back at least to the so-called "Allon Plan," named after Israeli politician Yigal Allon. Following the 1967 war, Allon called for the annexation of large parts of the West Bank.

The Hashemite Kingdom is also the custodian of Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem. Sources say that any move to demolish the Dome of the Rock or the Al-Aqsa Mosque to build a Third Jewish Temple – a goal cherished by many far-right groups in Israel – would also constitute a "casus belli." Worryingly, even Trump's new Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, has flippantly called for the construction of a Third Jewish Temple on the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.