Why India is reaching out to the Taliban now

India's recent diplomatic engagement with the Afghan Taliban government marks a significant shift in its perception of the geopolitical realities in the region. This comes over three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow following the fall of Kabul to the Taliban.

India's two decades of investment in Afghanistan's democratic development, including military training, scholarships, and landmark projects such as the construction of a new parliament building, were rapidly dismantled. This collapse also paved the way for regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, to expand their influence, undermining India’s strategic foothold and raising new security concerns.

However, things changed last week. Senior Indian diplomat Vikram Misri met with Taliban acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai, the highest-level contact since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it an “important regional and economic power.” The talks reportedly focused on expanding trade and utilizing Iran’s Chabahar Port, which India has been developing to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

“Delhi is now giving the Taliban leadership the de facto international legitimacy it has been seeking since its return to power,” said Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, a U.S. think tank. He argues that "the fact that this treatment is coming from India, a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban, makes it all the more significant and a diplomatic victory for the Taliban.”

Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, countries have adopted different approaches towards the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with concerns about human rights and security. China, for example, has gone far: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and has even stationed an ambassador in the country.

While no country has formally recognized the Taliban government, as many as 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal relationship with the Taliban. Because of this, experts like Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, take a more cautious view of India's diplomatic engagement.

He says that for the past three years, India has maintained contact with the Taliban through a diplomat. India closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We don’t want that kind of disruption again, so we want to engage. This is just an upgrade in the relationship,” he said.

India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told parliament in 2023 that India has “historical and civilizational links” with Afghanistan. India has invested over $3 billion in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, and clinics. It has trained Afghan officials, awarded thousands of scholarships to students, and built a new parliament building.

This reflects an enduring geopolitical reality. “There is a natural affinity between Delhi and Kabul, irrespective of the nature of the regime in Kabul — whether it is a monarchy, communist or Islamist,” noted The Indian Express. Kugelman echoed the same sentiment: “India has a significant legacy in Afghanistan as a development and humanitarian aid donor, which translates into goodwill among the Afghan public, which Delhi does not want to lose.”

Interestingly, the warming ties with Delhi seem to be happening amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan claims that the hardline Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates from safe havens in Afghanistan. In July last year, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would continue to launch attacks into Afghanistan as part of operations aimed at combating terrorism. Just days before the Indian-Taliban talks, Pakistani airstrikes reportedly killed dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government condemned the attacks as a violation of its sovereignty.

This marks a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021. At that time, a senior Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet with the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India. “While Pakistan is not the only factor driving India’s intensified engagement with the Taliban, the fact that Delhi is getting closer to a force that was long a key asset for Pakistan, and which has now betrayed its former patron, does represent a major win in its long-running competition with Pakistan,” said Kugelman.

There are other reasons driving this diplomatic engagement. India aims to improve connectivity and access to Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan’s refusal to grant transit rights. Experts say Afghanistan is key to achieving this goal. One strategy is to work with Iran to develop the Chabahar Port to improve access to Central Asia through Afghanistan. “By engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, Delhi can more easily focus on the Afghanistan portion of this plan, which the Taliban leadership fully supports because these plans will help strengthen Afghanistan’s own trade and connectivity links,” said Kugelman.

Clearly, India’s recent diplomatic engagement helps advance its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: preventing terrorist threats against India, deepening connectivity with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid, and countering a struggling Pakistan.

So, what are the downsides? “The risk of intensifying relations with the Taliban lies primarily with the Taliban itself,” said Kugelman. “We’re talking about a violent and brutal actor that has close ties to international terrorist groups, including those in Pakistan, and it has reformed very little from what it was in the 1990s.”

“India may be hoping that if it keeps the Taliban close, the Taliban will be less likely to undermine India or its interests. That may be true. But ultimately, can you really trust an actor like the Taliban? That will be a nagging question that will linger in India’s mind as it continues to cautiously pursue this complex relationship.”

Prasad argues that there are no downsides to India's current engagement with Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban's treatment of women. “The Taliban are fully in control. Letting the Taliban stew in their own juices is not going to help the Afghan people. Some engagement with the international community may compel the government to improve its behavior.”

“Remember, the Taliban are hungry for recognition. They know that that will only happen after internal reforms,” Prasad said, such as allowing women back into public life and restoring their rights to education, work, and political participation.