High stakes as China hosts Iran and Russia for nuclear talks

Nearly a decade has passed since world powers reached a historic agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. Now, it is a critical moment for both Iran and the international community.

Iran is currently closer than ever to having the capability to build a nuclear bomb. The agreement designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons is also set to expire later this year.

Dr. Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank in London stated: "This is a real crossroads moment. Without meaningful and successful diplomacy, we could see Iran weaponize, or we could see military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

The agreement, reached during President Barack Obama's administration after nearly two years of arduous negotiations, restricted Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, alleviating the country's economic woes. However, after Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reinstated U.S. sanctions, Iran gradually ceased complying with its commitments. It has accelerated uranium enrichment, which can be used to make reactor fuel but also potentially nuclear bombs, nearing weapons-grade levels.

Experts say Iran is now less than a week away from enriching enough material to build a nuclear weapon. Consequently, the United States and the agreement's other five signatories—Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia—are engaged in a flurry of urgent diplomacy. The UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to discuss Iran's nuclear program. China held talks with Iran and Russia in Beijing on Friday, seeking a "diplomatic" solution.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: "The situation is now at a critical moment again. We must buy time for peace, resolve disputes through political and diplomatic means, and oppose the use of force and illegal sanctions."

On Wednesday, a letter from U.S. President Trump was delivered in Tehran by a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates. The contents of the letter have not been made public. But President Trump issued a televised ultimatum to Iran last week, as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign, imposing new sanctions: reach a deal, or face other actions. He said: "I wrote them a letter and said, 'I hope you will negotiate, because if we have to take military action, it's going to be a terrible thing.'"

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to have rejected the idea of negotiations with a "bullying" America. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who had previously supported reviving the nuclear deal in exchange for an end to sanctions, has publicly expressed the same sentiment. But the country has been sending mixed messages. Dr. Vakil said: "There are factions domestically that favor negotiation, and there are factions that see weaponization as the best opportunity for Iran to manage its security."

Iran has very little trust in the Trump administration. Dr. Vakil added: "They've seen his capriciousness, his very bullying approach to (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy, his fanciful proposals for Gaza, they don't want to be in that situation." Iran hates the humiliation of having a gun pointed at its head. But it is currently vulnerable, with Israeli airstrikes last year weakening its military and believed to have destroyed much of the air defense protecting its nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to destroy those facilities.

Iranian authorities continue to insist that the country's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. But international concerns are growing. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which oversees the soon-to-expire nuclear agreement, says it has seen Iran strengthen its nuclear capabilities at different facilities across the country in recent years. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% (close to the 90% needed for weapons) is "growing very, very fast."

The IAEA said in its latest report: "Iran's significant increase in the production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium, being the only non-nuclear weapons state that produces this material, is a matter of grave concern." But because Iranian authorities have removed the IAEA's monitoring equipment, the nuclear watchdog has been unable to accurately verify what Iran is doing. Grossi said that urgent diplomatic engagement with Iran through all possible channels is now needed and "indispensable."

On October 18, the parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement will lose the ability to impose so-called "snapback" UN sanctions on Iran for violating the terms of the agreement. Therefore, Britain, France, and Germany are now brandishing the threat of snapback sanctions, hoping to exert pressure while they still can. Britain's Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, James Kariuki, said on Wednesday: "We have been clear that we will take all diplomatic steps to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and that includes using the snapback mechanism if necessary."

The stakes are high for both Iran and the world. Dr. Alexander Borfaras of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who focuses on preventing nuclear proliferation, said: "If Tehran decided to make a bomb, it could enrich enough uranium for multiple warheads in a matter of weeks." But he told the BBC that designing and assembling a deliverable weapon would take months to a year or longer. He said: "Iran is closer to nuclear weapons capability than ever before. But it is not clear whether it has already decided to develop nuclear weapons, or whether it is seeking a bargaining chip."