Azerbaijan and Armenia agree on draft peace agreement

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov announced on Thursday that Azerbaijan and Armenia have reached an agreement on the draft text of a peace treaty. Bayramov stated that Armenia has accepted Azerbaijan's proposals regarding the last remaining disputed points in the agreement, but he did not specify what these disputed points were. This marks significant progress in the ongoing peace negotiations.

According to the Azerbaijani website Haqqin, Bayramov stated during the Global Baku Forum: "In the next stage, Baku's expectations are clear – Armenia must amend its constitution, which still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan." The Armenian Foreign Ministry also confirmed in a statement that Yerevan has reached a draft agreement with Baku and is ready to begin consultations on the timing and location of the signing of the agreement. This constitutional amendment is a key demand from Azerbaijan.

Three officials familiar with the agreement confirmed that the parties have approved the text of the agreement. However, they noted that some key issues remain unresolved, beyond the scope of the agreement itself. A regional official told Middle East Eye that Armenia and Azerbaijan have not fully resolved the dispute over the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA), which is responsible for tracking ceasefire violations along the front lines. These unresolved issues could potentially hinder the full implementation of the peace treaty.

A Western official told Middle East Eye that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is open to not extending the EUMA's mandate, which expires in February 2027. The regional official added that, in principle, Baku does not want the presence of any foreign observers, including Russian troops. The regional official also highlighted two other key unresolved issues – the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and the amendment of the Armenian Constitution. These are all critical factors influencing the long-term stability of the region.

Baku wants the formal dissolution of the Minsk Group, which operates under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Azerbaijani officials have previously accused the OSCE of being biased against them. Azerbaijan also insists that Armenia amend the preamble to its constitution, which contains wording that could be interpreted as making territorial claims against Azerbaijani sovereignty. Western officials noted that questions remain as to whether Baku will accept Yerevan signing the peace agreement first, followed by constitutional amendments. This sequential approach is a crucial point of negotiation.

Furthermore, officials confirmed that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to withdraw legal lawsuits filed against each other in international judicial organizations. "This seems more like a breakthrough in the right direction than a final agreement," the regional official said. It remains unclear whether the two countries have reached an agreement on the establishment of the so-called Zangezur corridor, a proposed transport route that would connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. If built, this corridor could become an important regional trade route. The Zangezur corridor remains a contentious issue.

The Second Karabakh War, which broke out in the fall of 2020, ended in a decisive victory for Azerbaijan. The conflict ended on November 10, 2020, with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement, under which Azerbaijan regained control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and large swathes of surrounding territory that had been controlled by Armenia since the early 1990s. Since then, tensions between the two sides have remained high. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military operation that led to the complete reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani control, the territory being recognized by the United Nations as part of Azerbaijan. Afterwards, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled the region fearing persecution.

Since then, efforts to reach a lasting peace agreement have continued, with the involvement of Western and Russian mediators. However, issues such as border demarcation, the status of Armenian enclaves, and transport routes such as the Zangezur corridor have complicated the process. The Western official added that some actions by Azerbaijani forces near the front lines continue to cause concern among observers. These unresolved issues and ongoing tensions highlight the fragility of the peace process.