Indian Americans worried over US ties under new administration, survey shows

A new survey reveals that Indian Americans are increasingly optimistic about India's future but deeply concerned about US-India relations during a second Donald Trump presidency. The survey highlights the community's complex views on the prospects of the relationship between the two countries.

The 2024 Indian American Attitudes Survey, a joint effort by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov conducted last October, aimed to understand the political attitudes of Indian Americans. The survey comes at a time when both India and the United States held significant elections last year, and their partnership continues to deepen, albeit with occasional tensions. The U.S. federal government's prosecution of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and allegations of a Delhi-orchestrated assassination plot on American soil have added to these tensions.

With over five million Indian-origin residents in the United States, this survey raises several key questions: How do Indian Americans view President Joe Biden's handling of US-India relations? Do they see Donald Trump as a better alternative? How do they assess India's trajectory after the 2024 elections? The report is based on a nationally representative online survey of 1,206 Indian American adult residents, and here are some of its key findings.

The survey shows that Indian Americans rate the Biden administration's handling of US-India relations higher than Trump's first term. Furthermore, the poll suggests that a Kamala Harris administration would be seen as more beneficial to bilateral relations than a second Trump term. Partisan divisions play a key role: 66% of Indian American Republicans believe Trump is more favorable to US-India relations, while only 8% of Democrats agree. Conversely, half of Indian American Democrats support Biden, compared to only 15% of Republicans. Since most Indian Americans are Democrats, this gives Biden an overall advantage.

Despite this, the alleged plot to assassinate a separatist on American soil has not garnered widespread attention, with only half of the respondents being aware of it. In October of last year, the United States charged a former Indian intelligence official with plotting to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a lawyer residing in the United States who advocates for a separate Sikh state called "Khalistan," on charges of attempted murder and money laundering. This marks the first time the Indian government has been directly implicated in an alleged assassination plot targeting dissidents. India has stated that it is cooperating with the U.S. investigation. In January, an Indian investigative panel recommended legal action against an unidentified individual believed to be a former intelligence officer, following U.S. accusations that the individual orchestrated the assassination plot. Nevertheless, only a minority of respondents indicated that such actions by India were unjustified, expressing the same sentiment if the United States were to take similar action.

Indian Americans are divided along partisan lines, with Democrats expressing greater sympathy for Palestinians, while Republicans tend to support Israel. Four out of ten respondents believe Biden is too biased towards Israel in the current conflict. The survey also found that 47% of Indian Americans believe India is heading in the right direction, a 10-percentage-point increase from four years ago. The same proportion approves of Modi's performance as Prime Minister. Furthermore, four out of ten respondents believe that India's 2024 election (in which Modi's party did not win a majority) has made the country more democratic.

Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that the survey shows that many Indian Americans support Modi and believe India is on the right track, but half are unaware of the alleged assassination attempt on American soil, which may indicate a gap in information access, selective engagement, or a tendency to overlook certain behaviors in support of broader nationalist sentiments. He believes it has more to do with selective engagement. Data collected by Carnegie in 2020 showed that about 60% of Indian Americans regularly follow Indian government and public affairs, meaning that a significant portion only engage occasionally. People usually form broad impressions based on news, social media, and interactions with friends and family. Given the overwhelming amount of U.S. news recently, it is not surprising that the assassination plot has not gained traction with a large segment of this community.

Mr. Vaishnav also noted that Indian Americans generally hold more liberal views on American policy issues than on Indian ones. For example, Muslim Indian Americans are a minority in both India and the United States, and they consistently maintain more liberal attitudes, while Hindu Indian Americans express liberal views in the United States (where they are a minority) but more conservative stances in India (where they are a majority). In other words, one's majority or minority status plays a key role in shaping their political views.

Finally, Mr. Vaishnav argues that one should not generalize from a single event or even one segment of the Indian American population. More than fifty thousand Indian Americans gathered at the "Hello, Modi!" event, primarily to see Modi, not Trump. Trump joined later. Secondly, this is a diverse group with various political views. While Indian Americans overwhelmingly lean towards the Democratic Party, a significant portion—we estimate about 30% in 2024—still support the Republican Party under Trump. The survey shows that Indian Americans remain loyal to the Democratic Party, but this attachment has weakened. A survey last year found that about 47% identified as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. Regarding sources of information, 2020 data shows that online news is the primary source of information about India, followed by television, social media, and word of mouth. Among social media, YouTube, Facebook, and WhatsApp are the most common platforms. Direct interaction with India is relatively limited, with foreign-born Indian Americans generally more engaged than those born in the United States. Nevertheless, one should not ignore that cultural ties remain very strong, even for second- and third-generation Indian Americans.

In conclusion, this survey paints a complex picture of the Indian American community, whose views are shaped by a confluence of selective engagement, shifting political winds, and diverse individual experiences.