Rodrigo Duterte's downfall marks dramatic end to Philippines power struggle

Former President Rodrigo Duterte, on the cusp of his 80th birthday, the iron-fisted figure who vowed to cleanse the nation through a bloody war on drugs and crime, finds himself in dire straits and under arrest. He once promised to eradicate crime, but now faces charges from the International Criminal Court.

As Duterte arrived in Manila from Hong Kong, Philippine police were waiting for him at the airport. He had previously been in Hong Kong to rally support for the upcoming midterm elections, seeking the backing of the large Filipino diaspora there. The highly anticipated arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) was, in effect, already in the hands of the Philippine government, which swiftly moved to execute it.

Looking frail and using a cane, Mr. Duterte was transferred to an air force base within the airport complex. A chartered plane was quickly prepared to transport him to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. How did this once powerful and popular figure, often dubbed the "Trump of Asia," come to such a pass?

His lawyers and family protested in vain that the arrest had no legal basis and complained that Mr. Duterte's health was being disregarded. They argued the arrest was unlawful and highlighted the former president's health concerns.

During his time in office, Duterte aligned himself with the Marcos family—the children of the ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who had long been striving for a political comeback. Duterte was unable to run in the 2022 presidential election, but his daughter Sara, the mayor of the southern city of Davao, was also popular and a strong contender to succeed him. However, Ferdinand Marcos's son, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who had spent his entire life in politics, was also a promising candidate and well-funded.

The two families struck a deal. They would work together to get Marcos Jr. elected as president and Sara as vice president, on the understanding that by the next election in 2028, it would be her turn, and she would have the support of the powerful Marcos machine. The outcome was successful. Both won their positions by huge margins. Duterte expected his alliance to shield him from any backlash against his controversial presidency after he left office.

The gravest threat to him is the International Criminal Court (ICC)'s investigation into his culpability for the thousands of extrajudicial killings that occurred during his ordered war on drugs—both after he became president in 2016, and during his time as mayor of the southern city of Davao beginning in 2011. Duterte withdrew from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in 2019, but its prosecutors argued that they still had the right to investigate alleged crimes against humanity committed before this date, and launched a formal investigation in 2021. However, President Marcos Jr. initially indicated that his government would not cooperate with the International Criminal Court.

This position only changed after the dramatic breakdown of the Duterte-Marcos alliance. Tensions in their relationship were evident from the early days of the administration, when Sara Duterte requested control of the powerful Department of National Defense, but was refused, and she was appointed Secretary of Education instead. President Marcos Jr. also distanced himself from his predecessor's erratic policies, mending relations with the United States, confronting China in disputed waters, and halting the chilling threats of retribution against drug dealers.

Ultimately, these are two ambitious, power-hungry families aiming to dominate Philippine politics, but there wasn't enough power for them to share. Last year, Sara Duterte announced that she had hired an assassin to kill President Marcos Jr. if anything were to happen to her, sending relations to a new low. Late last year, a petition to impeach Ms. Duterte was filed in the lower house of Congress, which is controlled by Marcos loyalists. The trial is expected to take place later this year in the Senate. If she is impeached, she would be barred from holding high political office under the constitution, stifling her long-held presidential ambitions and further weakening the Duterte family's political power.

President Marcos Jr. now appears to have skillfully moved to eliminate his main political rivals. But his strategy is not without risk. The Duterte family remains popular in much of the country and may be able to mobilize protests against the prosecution of the former president. Sara Duterte issued a statement accusing the government of surrendering her father to "foreign powers" and violating Philippine sovereignty.

An early test of the support enjoyed by both families will be the midterm elections in May. As the plane carrying his predecessor took off from Manila, President Marcos Jr., in comments to reporters, insisted that he was fulfilling the country's commitment to Interpol, which had issued the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant. But he was vague about executing the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant, as many Filipinos would question the International Criminal Court's authority in a country that has withdrawn from its jurisdiction.

Nor is this without risk for the International Criminal Court. Today, the court is a beleaguered institution, threatened by the Trump administration with the arrest of its senior officials if they traveled to the United States, and with few countries willing to extradite those it indicts. So sending former President Duterte to The Hague might seem like a welcome high-profile success. But China has issued a warning—China is, of course, not a signatory to the International Criminal Court and currently has strained relations with the Philippines—against politicizing the International Criminal Court's case. This subtly implied that the case, which should have been about accountability for serious international crimes, ended up playing a decisive role in a dispute between two rival political forces within the Philippines.