India heatwave: Early winter retreat spells trouble for factories and farms

Nitin Goel, the owner of a garment company in Ludhiana, a textile city in northwestern India, is facing challenges brought about by a warm winter. With summer arriving early this year, his family's 50-year-old garment business, which mainly produces jackets, sweaters, and sweatshirts, is facing dismal sales and has had to adjust its business strategy.

Goel told the BBC: "As winters shorten year by year, we have had to start producing T-shirts instead of sweaters. Our sales have halved in the past five years, and this season they are down another 10%. The only exception was during the Covid pandemic, when temperatures dropped significantly." Across India, as the cool weather rapidly recedes, anxiety is spreading among farms and factories, and planting patterns and business plans are being upended.

Data from the India Meteorological Department shows that last month was the hottest February in India in 125 years. The weekly average minimum temperatures in many parts of the country were also 1-3 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Meteorological agencies warn that most parts of India are likely to experience sustained above-normal maximum temperatures and heat waves between March and May.

For small business owners like Goel, this erratic weather means more than just a drop in sales. He has had to change his entire business model, which he has practiced and perfected for decades. Goel's company supplies clothing to multi-brand stores across India. He says that instead of payment upon delivery, they are now using a "sale or return" model, where unsold goods are returned to the company, shifting the risk entirely to the manufacturer. This year, he has also had to offer customers larger discounts and incentives.

Goel said: "Even though the orders have been confirmed, large retailers are not picking them up." He also added that some small businesses in his town have had to close down as a result. In the town of Devgad on India's west coast, the heatwave has wreaked havoc on India's popular Alphonso mango orchards. Vidyadhar Joshi, a farmer with 1,500 trees, said: "This year's yield may only be about 30% of normal."

The sweet, juicy, and fragrant Alphonso mango is a prized export product of the region, but Joshi said that yields have declined in the Raigad, Sindhudurg, and Ratnagiri districts, where the variety is mainly grown. Joshi added, "We are likely to make a loss this year," as he has had to spend more money than usual on irrigation and fertilization to save the crop. According to him, many other farmers in the region have even sent laborers from Nepal home because there is not enough work to do.

The scorching weather also threatens winter staples such as wheat, chickpeas, and rapeseed. Although the Indian Minister of Agriculture has dismissed concerns about poor yields and predicted that India will have a bumper wheat harvest this year, independent experts are not optimistic. Abhishek Jain of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (Ceew) think tank said that the 2022 heatwave caused a 15-25% drop in yields and that "a similar trend could occur this year."

As the world's second-largest wheat producer, India would have to rely on expensive imports if such disruptions occur. Its long-standing export ban, announced in 2022, may last even longer. Economists are also concerned about the impact of rising temperatures on agricultural water supplies. Ceew data shows that water levels in reservoirs in northern India have already fallen to 28% of capacity, down from 37% last year. This could affect the production of fruits and vegetables, as well as the dairy industry, which has already seen a 15% drop in milk production in some parts of India.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, said: "These factors have the potential to push up inflation and reverse the 4% target that the central bank has been talking about." India's food prices have recently begun to fall after months at high levels, leading to interest rate cuts after a long pause. The GDP of Asia's third-largest economy, after hitting a seven-quarter low last year, has also been supported by a recent acceleration in rural consumption. Any setback to this agriculture-led recovery could affect overall growth at a time when urban households have been cutting back on spending and private investment has yet to recover.

Think tanks such as Ceew say that a series of emergency measures need to be considered to mitigate the impact of recurring heatwaves, including better weather forecasting infrastructure, agricultural insurance, and the use of climate models to improve planting calendars to reduce risk and increase yields. As a major agricultural nation, India is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Ceew estimates that three out of every four districts in India are "extreme event hotspots," and 40% of districts exhibit what is known as a "swap trend" – meaning that regions traditionally prone to flooding are experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, and vice versa.

It is estimated that India is expected to lose about 5.8% of daily working hours due to heat stress by 2030. The advocacy group Climate Transparency estimates that potential income losses in India's service, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction sectors due to reduced labor caused by extreme heat reached $159 billion in 2021, or 5.4% of its GDP. Without urgent action, India faces a future where heatwaves threaten both lives and economic stability.