Syrian government still faces threat from Assad loyalists

In January 2025, a month after the fall of the Syrian Assad regime in a blitzkrieg offensive led by Islamist rebels, a group of young men gathered at the nearly empty Interior Ministry headquarters in Damascus, checking their phones. Some of them carried weapons, indicating the tense situation and the power vacuum that had emerged. This scene underscored the rapid shift in control and the uncertainty that gripped the nation.

With Bashar al-Assad's downfall, they had come from Idlib, a region in northwestern Syria that had been the country's only opposition-held province for years. These young men quickly took over positions once held by Assad's handpicked loyalists and, under the leadership of Ahmed Shala, found themselves in charge of managing a shattered nation ravaged by 13 years of civil war. Their arrival marked a significant turning point in the conflict.

One official, in his 30s, recently appointed as a prominent security officer, welcomed me into a room cleared of all traces of the old regime. The tall, slightly diffident official, while taking notes on an iPad, acknowledged the enormous security challenges facing the new rulers, including threats from Assad loyalists. Dismantling the decades-long institutions behind the Assad regime's machinery of oppression, such as the army and the ruling Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, meant that hundreds of thousands of people were being laid off.

“There are some people affiliated with Assad who are not involved in the reconciliation process,” said the official, who asked not to be named. He cited the new authorities' call for former security force members to hand over their weapons and cut ties with the old government. “Our eyes are on everyone, but we don't want to give the impression that we are hunting them. That's why there are no mass raids happening.” This approach aimed to balance security concerns with the need for stability.

Since then, violence has escalated, especially in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the Assad family, but the conflict has remained relatively contained. That was until last Thursday, when government-linked forces conducting an operation in the countryside of Latakia province, targeting a former Assad official, were ambushed by gunmen. At least 13 security force members were killed, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. A regional official called it a well-planned attack by "remnants of Assad's militias."

Initially confined to the Jableh area, the unrest spread more widely. Videos posted online showed intense gun battles in different districts. Authorities sent reinforcements, and further clashes on Friday led to more than 120 deaths, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. This marked the most violent day since Assad's downfall and the biggest challenge yet to the transitional government of interim President Shala and its efforts to consolidate power. The escalating violence underscored the fragility of the new regime.

Former Assad regime members are likely to form the most effective insurgent groups against Syria's new rulers and have the ability to coordinate attacks, according to research by the Institute for the Study of War. “They already have existing networks that they can leverage to quickly organize insurgent groups. These networks are military, intelligence, and political networks, as well as criminal groups that lost significant economic and political influence after Assad's downfall,” they said in a report. Their established infrastructure provides a strong foundation for resistance.

Syria's coastal region is also the heartland of Assad's Alawite minority sect (an offshoot of Shia Islam). Its members held key positions in Assad's government, but with the arrival of the Sunni Muslim-led rebels, they lost the power and privileges they once enjoyed. Although Shala has pledged to respect different religious sects, they now say they are being attacked and discriminated against. On Friday, activists said gunmen killed dozens of male residents in Alawite areas, which would further inflame tensions and potentially fuel support for rebel anti-government operations. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the gunmen were from government security forces, although this has not been confirmed.

The authorities are also facing resistance from Druze forces in the south, although an agreement was reached earlier this week. The Damascus government does not control all of Syria, and different factions – backed by different countries – exercise power over different areas. But for Shala, the challenge is not just about trying to maintain national security. He also faces the daunting task of unifying a deeply divided country.

His authorities are also struggling to lift the harsh sanctions imposed on Syria during the former regime, a key move to revive the economy of a nation where nine out of ten people live in poverty, as Western countries continue to doubt his intentions. Progress on lifting sanctions has been slow, further exacerbating Syria's economic woes and humanitarian crisis. The future of Syria hinges on the ability to overcome these economic and political hurdles.