Turkey cautiously optimistic about Syria’s deal with the Kurds

According to Middle East Eye, Turkey is viewing a groundbreaking integration agreement between the new Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with cautious optimism. The agreement aims to integrate the civil and military institutions of northeastern Syria into the administration of the Syrian national government, including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields. This integration represents a significant step towards centralizing governance in the region.

Under the agreement signed by Syrian President Ahmed Chalha and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, all civil and military institutions located in northeastern Syria will be integrated into the Syrian government's administrative system. This encompasses vital facilities and resources such as border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields. The move is intended to bring greater stability and unified control to these critical areas.

Ankara has long viewed the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called last month for the organization he founded to disarm and disband. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated last year that the SDF should expel all PKK militants and join the central government to reach a peaceful resolution with Ankara. This reflects Turkey's consistent demand for the SDF to sever ties with the PKK.

Turkish pro-government media and public news outlets expressed elation over the agreement on Tuesday morning. TRT Haber stated that the SDF had succumbed to Turkish pressure, while Yeni Safak claimed that the group had accepted disarmament. Two Turkish sources familiar with government thinking said that overall, the agreement could satisfy Turkish demands because it does not imply the existence of any autonomous or federal Kurdish state in northeastern Syria. This positive reception highlights the perceived benefits for Turkish national security.

A Turkish source told Middle East Eye: "This shows that there will be a unified Syrian army, and the northeast will be part of a unified country." Omer Ozkizcik, a senior regional expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, stated: "By signing this agreement, Mazloum Abdi has effectively signaled the end of the Autonomous Administration project in Syria, thus alleviating one of Turkey's foremost national security concerns." The agreement's implications extend to the future of Kurdish autonomy in Syria.

While regional countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia were quick to welcome the move, Turkey has yet to issue an official comment on the matter. The second source said that this indicates Ankara's cautious approach. Turkish nationalist party leader Devlet Bahceli said over the weekend that the SDF should also disband itself in line with Öcalan's call. Bahceli had initiated a dialogue with Öcalan regarding the PKK's disbandment. This cautious stance reflects the need for further verification and commitment.

The second source stated that Ankara will closely monitor the agreement to ensure that the SDF expels PKK forces as publicly pledged by Abdi and to ensure that Kurdish forces join the Syrian Ministry of Defense as independent units rather than separate forces. Öcalan is viewed as an ideological leader within the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish armed group that controls the SDF. The monitoring aims to ensure the agreement's full implementation and prevent any resurgence of PKK influence.

According to regional diplomats and experts, one of the factors that prompted Abdi to sign the agreement, in addition to Öcalan's call, was mediation and pressure from the United States on the SDF. This could be seen as a sign that Washington may soon withdraw its forces from the country. Two US officials told Middle East Eye that Washington had been working for months to persuade the SDF to find areas of cooperation with the new Syrian government, which took office last December. The US role in facilitating the agreement underscores its strategic interests in the region.

A senior US official stated that Turkey had been involved and had arranged Öcalan's phone call in exchange for Washington encouraging the SDF to cooperate with the government and join the government. The official told Middle East Eye: "This would mean laying down arms, and they are not considering autonomy or anything like that for the Kurdish-controlled areas." This US involvement highlights the complex interplay of regional and international actors.

The official added that the Trump administration was interested in reaching commercial deals with the new Syrian government, including access to oil resources in the country's northeast. The official also said that US President Donald Trump was interested in maintaining good relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that this agreement could be seen as a move in that direction. Washington has been focused on protecting prisons holding Islamic State (IS) militants and their families, and the potential negative impact of SDF integration into the army on the ability to counter the armed group. This reveals the underlying economic and security considerations.

Ankara established a new platform with Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq last week to maintain and coordinate operations against IS, while Damascus is willing to take over the prisons, which is stipulated in the agreement. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been calling on Syrian Kurds to refuse cooperation with Turkey, which has particularly angered Ankara. This highlights the divergent interests and tensions among regional players.

Galia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, stated: "If the agreement holds, it will put Turkey in a better position to control the situation in Syria and make it more difficult for other players to shape these situations. In any case, Israeli operations in these areas (the north) are excessive, so in practice, there may not be much change." Lindenstrauss added that the situation in southern Syria is different, where there are clear Israeli attempts to shape the situation. The agreement's potential impact on regional power dynamics is significant.

Israeli warplanes bombed areas in southern Syria as Chalha and Abdi signed the agreement late on Monday. However, there are concerns that Abdi's move may just be another attempt to buy time while distracting other parties. Souheil Ghazi, a long-time expert on Syrian affairs, recalled that the SDF and Abdi had met with the Kurdish National Council (a rival group) multiple times, but to no avail. These concerns raise questions about the sincerity and long-term viability of the agreement.

He said: "The Kurdish National Council still cannot work in northeastern Syria, and their members are sometimes arrested. The language of the agreement is very broad, and each party will interpret it as they wish. Establishing a committee is not easy, and this step itself will take some time." The challenges in implementation and potential for misinterpretation highlight the complexities of the situation.