Landmark SDF deal hailed as positive step for Syria and Kurds

While the credibility of the new government in western Syria faces challenges, an unexpected agreement has been reached between northeastern Syria and the Kurds, potentially marking a new chapter for the region, though significant challenges remain.

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the oil-rich northeastern region. On Monday, the group signed an agreement with the Syrian government aimed at integrating its civil and military institutions into the new national system.

News of the agreement sparked spontaneous celebrations across Syria. Many view the agreement as a pathway to greater equality for Syria's long-marginalized Kurds, as it includes recognition of the Kurds as an integral part of the nation, enjoying full citizenship and constitutional rights.

Mohammad A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, told Middle East Eye that the agreement is a significant and positive development for Syria, particularly for the Kurds. He noted that the agreement appears to address two key Kurdish concerns: granting citizenship to hundreds of thousands of stateless individuals since 1962 and ensuring the return of those displaced from areas like Afrin by Turkish-backed groups.

The eight-point agreement, signed by SDF commander Mazloum Abdi and interim President Ahmed Shala, also includes the provision that all Syrians have the right to participate in the construction of national institutions based on their capabilities, regardless of their religious or ethnic background.

Abdi stated on X (formerly Twitter) that the Kurdish-led alliance is working with Damascus to "ensure a transitional phase that reflects our people's aspirations for justice and stability." He believes the agreement is "a real opportunity to build a new Syria that embraces all its components and ensures good neighborliness," possibly referring to Turkey, which has consistently supported efforts to combat the SDF's control of northeastern Syria.

Meanwhile, Mustafa Sejari, a former commander of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), called the agreement a "historic achievement in preserving Syria's territorial integrity." According to the agreement, all SDF-controlled entities, including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields, will be incorporated into national institutions. After Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in late December, the Kurds controlled the Qamishli International Airport but failed to operate it.

The agreement also stipulates the return and protection of displaced Syrians, supports efforts to combat terrorism and threats to Syria's security, and opposes divisive and hateful rhetoric. The return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) is a critical issue for the Kurds, as Turkish-backed Syrian rebels displaced thousands of Kurds in Afrin and Serekaniye (Ras al-Ain) in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Finally, the agreement establishes an implementation committee to oversee the agreement's implementation by the end of the year. "The agreement marks a fundamental stage towards building a new Syria. It aims to establish a democratic and pluralistic state that respects the rights of all Syrian components," the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political arm of the SDF, said in a statement.

An SDF source told Middle East Eye that the agreement was "the result of months of negotiations mediated by the United States." Abdi of the SDF first met Shala in Damascus on December 30, 2024, after Assad's fall, in a meeting facilitated by the U.S. It took the parties more than two months to reach an agreement. General Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), also visited the SDF prior to the agreement's announcement.

Nadine Maenza, president of the International Religious Freedom Secretariat and former chair of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), told Middle East Eye: "I suspect the U.S. views this agreement as the only path to real peace in Syria. Furthermore, the leadership in the northeast has experience managing religious and ethnic diversity, which is a huge benefit to a new government."

The first sign of the impending agreement was a statement issued on February 18 by the SDF and the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration congratulating Shala on his appointment as president, marking the first expression of recognition. They also invited him to visit northeastern Syria.

Syrian political expert Mohammed Ibrahim told Middle East Eye: "Given that the SDF is a major player controlling vast territories rich in resources, this [agreement] marks significant progress in stabilizing the Syrian state." "However, translating this broad agreement into concrete, actionable steps that satisfy both parties will be a long and challenging journey, especially given the intricate influence of external forces on the Syrian situation."

Ibrahim stated that the international community now has a critical opportunity to support this process, providing the necessary tools and conditions to help Syrians make significant progress toward stability and shared prosperity. Some Western countries are diplomatically pushing for the inclusion of the SDF in the new Syrian state. Ibrahim said that France supports the agreement, while a diplomatic source indicated that the UK may also be involved.

Following a meeting with Shala in January, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized the need to "find a solution that protects the security interests of all, especially those of our Kurdish partners in the SDF." Another Western diplomat stated, "The devil is in the details, but it is difficult to see a sustainable solution for the northeast other than an agreement with Damascus."

"The U.S. [presence in northeastern Syria] is now more uncertain than at any time since late 2019. An agreement with Damascus is a logical hedge and almost certainly the only sustainable solution for the SDF." All diplomatic sources spoke to Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity. In February, NBC News reported that the U.S. Department of Defense was drafting plans for a complete withdrawal of troops from Syria after U.S. President Donald Trump and officials close to him expressed interest in removing all troops from the country.

The agreement was reached days after sectarian unrest spread across northwestern Syria, the biggest challenge Shala has faced since taking office. The violence began on Thursday when gunmen loyal to Assad attacked the coastal region, home to members of the Alawite community to which Assad and most of his loyalists belong. The conflict escalated into retaliatory attacks on civilians, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of displacements, with government forces attempting to quell what they called a rebellion. Civilians belonging to the Alawite community were particularly targeted.

While Shala vowed to hold those responsible for the violence accountable, the killing of civilians has dealt a significant blow to the new government's image and raised concerns about a resurgence of civil war. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that his country stands with the Christian, Druze, Alawite, and Kurdish communities and called on the Syrian interim authorities to hold the perpetrators of "these massacres against Syrian minority communities" accountable.

Religious freedom advocate Maenza added that while the agreement "will be welcomed by the U.S. and the international community, it may not change the calculus on sanctions, particularly given the recent days of mass violence by Syrian security forces against primarily Alawite civilians, but also Christians and others. It is critical that Shala deliver on his promises of punishment and accountability."

Notably, the agreement commits the SDF to supporting the Syrian state in combating remnants of the Assad regime and "all threats to its security and unity." The SDF has previously fought government-backed elements in Deir ez-Zor. Aldar Khalil, a senior official with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), told Ronahi TV that it is important "that we [engage in] dialogue [with Damascus] so that the conflicts that occurred in places like the coast and Aleppo do not recur."

He added: "To prevent sectarian and internal wars, the negotiation process should be developed." Salih Muslim, a member of the PYD's executive committee, also told Middle East Eye that the agreement initially "is to prevent the expansion of war, and it is for all of Syria. This is the first time that the Autonomous Administration has become a partner in the process of rebuilding Syria. Committees will be formed to implement the agreements reached, and great strides are being made in building a democratic Syria."

The agreement raises a key question about the fate of the 10,000 Islamic State (IS) militants held in prisons operated by the SDF in northeastern Syria, as well as the 40,000 IS family members in the al-Hol camp. Yussi Tanner, Director of Consular Affairs at the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, said: "In the prisons, there are possibly around 8,000 militants arbitrarily detained since 2019. In the camp, there are thousands of third-country nationals actively evading repatriation." Tanner previously served as Finland's special envoy for the repatriation of Finnish children from Syrian camps.

"Children are growing up. The status quo is clearly not working. If we want to defuse the fundamentally unsustainable detention system in northeastern Syria and prevent an [Islamic State] resurgence, new measures are needed." An SDF source told Middle East Eye that the agreement does not change much at this stage.

"It's just a memorandum. Committees will work to find solutions to each problem. For now, maybe some government troops can be deployed along the border, maybe at the border crossings as well. But this was also the case in the past, so there is nothing new," he said. Meanwhile, Sky News Arabia reported that the SDF and Damascus will jointly combat Islamic State cells in the Syrian desert.

Another issue is the ongoing fighting between the SDF and the Turkish-backed SNA, whose commanders have joined the new Syrian army. Implementation is scheduled for the end of the year, but the agreement does not outline how the SDF's military operations will be integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense. Although the SDF lost Tal Rifaat and Manbij to Turkish-backed groups in December, it has been able to successfully defend the strategic Tishrin Dam and the Kara Kozak Bridge on the Euphrates River for nearly three months.

The SDF did not fight Shala's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and even maintained control over the two Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh in Aleppo. However, it did lose control of areas north of Aleppo to Turkish-backed groups. The SDF source said that the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army forces in al-Tanf "should be deployed on the contact lines between us and the SNA, especially in Tishrin and Kara Kozak, only on the west side of the river."

Lokman Ahmi, co-chair of the Syrian Green Party and former spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration, told Middle East Eye that this understanding could serve as a basic principle for a new Syrian constitution, ensuring the rights of all Syrians, including the Kurds. He added: "We will have to see how this agreement will be implemented. The agreement states that separate committees will be formed to implement the understanding and how it will work in cooperation with Damascus, which is the capital."

"For now, this agreement is just a reference. I can see some interpretations of the agreement, but in my opinion, it is too early to tell. The specialized committees need to meet, discuss, and implement the details of the broadly agreed-upon agreement. Overall, this agreement is a positive step, and we hope that it will serve the rights of Syria's ethnic and religious minorities."

Meanwhile, Salih cautioned that many thorny details remain to be resolved. "The key question now is how the agreement will be implemented in practice - and, equally importantly, how much stability Syria will maintain in light of the recent unrest and massacres in the predominantly Alawite coastal region."