According to Middle East Eye, the United Arab Emirates is lobbying the Trump administration in an attempt to block a post-war Gaza reconstruction plan drafted by Egypt and already endorsed by the Arab League. Both U.S. and Egyptian officials have confirmed this information to Middle East Eye, indicating the seriousness of the situation.
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03-21, 2025This disagreement is becoming increasingly intense, and U.S. diplomats fear it could harm U.S. interests in the region. It reflects the competition among Arab nations over the future governance and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, as well as differing opinions on how much influence Hamas should retain, raising concerns about regional stability.
The UAE's pressure poses a dilemma for Cairo, as both the UAE and Egypt broadly support the same Palestinian power broker, namely exiled former Fatah official Mohammed Dahlan. This shared support adds a layer of complexity to the ongoing dispute and highlights the intricate web of alliances in the region.
One U.S. official told Middle East Eye: "It wasn't possible for the UAE to be the only country objecting to the plan when the Arab League had agreed to it, but they are undermining it through the Trump administration." The UAE is leveraging its special relationship with the White House, criticizing the plan as unworkable and accusing Cairo of giving Hamas too much influence, thereby complicating regional efforts to address the Gaza situation.
According to a U.S. official and an Egyptian official, the UAE's ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba, has been lobbying President Donald Trump's inner circle and U.S. lawmakers to pressure Egypt to accept the forced displacement of Palestinians. Otaiba had previously stated publicly that he did not see an "alternative" to Trump's call earlier this year for the forced removal of Palestinians from Gaza, demonstrating a clear divergence in views on the matter.
Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and the UAE has been trying to eliminate the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East. Egypt's military-led government has also cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood, but allows Hamas officials a certain degree of freedom of movement. Egyptian intelligence has a long-standing relationship with Hamas members, including the Qassam Brigades, and Egypt has used these relationships to mediate ceasefires in Gaza, showcasing a complex and at times contradictory approach to regional actors.
The UAE criticizes Egypt's Gaza plan for not clearly stating how Hamas will be disarmed and removed from the Gaza Strip. Egyptian officials say the plan clearly stipulates that the governance of Gaza will be the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority. The plan calls for the establishment of a security force in Gaza trained by Jordan and Egypt, and leaves open the possibility of UN peacekeeping forces being deployed in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Hamas has stated that it accepts the plan, but regional diplomats say Israel opposes internationalizing the conflict in this way, adding further complications to the already delicate situation.
The U.S. brokered a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza war in January, but that agreement has effectively collapsed, and the besieged enclave is on the brink of returning to war. Israel has already cut off electricity supplies to the enclave. Palestinian health officials say that over the weekend, Israel launched deadly attacks that killed at least 15 people, signaling a dangerous escalation of tensions.
The U.S. has proposed a plan that would require Hamas to release the remaining 27 living hostages in the Gaza Strip in exchange for an extended temporary truce. Hamas insists on a permanent end to the war, as stipulated in the January ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration has said it supports Israel returning to war in the Gaza Strip. Trump's former hostage affairs envoy, Adam Boehler, recently met directly with Hamas in Doha, Qatar, which shocked the U.S. diplomatic community, raising questions about the administration's approach to the conflict.
The White House said that Boehler met with Hamas to negotiate the release of a remaining American hostage, but the envoy stated publicly that he discussed with Hamas a five- to ten-year truce agreement that would require Hamas to renounce politics, and the U.S. and its Arab allies to ensure the demilitarization of Gaza. These remarks, as well as Boehler's statement to CNN that he did not rule out further meetings with Hamas, sparked strong opposition from the Israeli government and pro-Israel U.S. lawmakers. Last Friday, Boehler was withdrawn as the nominee for hostage affairs envoy, highlighting the controversy surrounding his actions.
According to Middle East Eye, this meeting also angered the UAE. Senior Trump advisors have been ambivalent about the Arab League's post-war Gaza plan. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, did not endorse the plan during a visit to the region in March, but called it a "basis for reconstruction efforts." This lukewarm reception further underscores the divisions and uncertainties surrounding the future of Gaza.
Some U.S. and Egyptian officials believe that the UAE's actions have already affected U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relations, with the U.S. warning Egypt that it will cut military aid in 2026. U.S. officials told Middle East Eye that Egypt has been told that the U.S. is re-evaluating its military aid, but has not been directly told that future cuts in aid are in exchange for Egypt accepting the forced displacement of Palestinians, suggesting a complex interplay of factors influencing the U.S.'s approach to Egypt.
The Trump administration has been cutting foreign aid globally. Egypt and Israel both received waivers from a 90-day freeze on U.S. foreign aid. In recent weeks, other Arab countries, such as Lebanon, have also received waivers. The Trump administration executed a plan from the former Biden administration in March to divert $95 million in aid originally intended for the Egyptian military to the Lebanese Armed Forces, indicating a shift in priorities and regional alliances.
Last month, a delegation of former senior Egyptian officials visited Washington to meet with policymakers and think tanks in an attempt to shore up Egypt's standing in the Trump administration. One knowledgeable Egyptian official told Middle East Eye that in their public discussions, they did not acknowledge the U.S. warnings. Egyptian officials told their U.S. counterparts that maintaining U.S. aid was in the interests of both Israel and Egypt, emphasizing the strategic importance of the relationship.
But suspicion is growing among the Egyptian elite. Military institutions are already angered by U.S. accusations that it has failed to manage the Rafah border crossing with Gaza. Senator Jim Risch, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, accused Egypt of "undermining" Israel's fight against Hamas in a previous interview with Middle East Eye, adding fuel to the fire of existing tensions.
Egypt receives $1.3 billion in military aid annually. The U.S. has already tied $300 million in aid to human rights issues. U.S. leverage over Egypt has weakened since the Israeli peace treaty. In 1978, U.S. aid accounted for 6% of Egypt's GDP. Today, that figure is less than 0.5%, and it is unclear whether the Trump administration views aid as an asset worth preserving, raising questions about the future of the U.S.-Egypt relationship.
U.S. officials have told the White House that reducing aid would prompt Egypt to turn to Russia or China for military equipment, but Trump is realigning the U.S. relationship with Russia. Egypt receives aid through foreign military financing, meaning that the U.S. buys military equipment for Egypt from U.S. defense contractors, while wealthy Gulf states primarily buy U.S. weapons with their sovereign wealth funds through foreign military sales, illustrating the different dynamics at play in U.S. arms sales to the region.
A complicating factor in the dispute is that both Egypt and the UAE see Dahlan as a power broker in post-war Gaza. When the Egyptian-drafted plan received the endorsement of the Arab League, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas pardoned the exiled former Fatah official. This was widely seen as an endorsement of Dahlan, who was Fatah's enforcer in Gaza before Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections. After falling out with Abbas in the occupied West Bank, Dahlan moved to the UAE, highlighting the complex and shifting alliances in Palestinian politics.
Middle East Eye has reported that the UAE is pushing for Dahlan to oversee a committee to administer Gaza and later replace the octogenarian Abbas as president. Sisi has close ties to Dahlan. The UAE is a key backer of Sisi's cash-strapped government. In 2024, it agreed to invest $35 billion along Egypt's Mediterranean coast. But the UAE and Egypt back opposing sides in Sudan's brutal civil war, showcasing the divergent interests and conflicting agendas that complicate regional dynamics.
Adding further complexity, the Financial Times has reported that the Trump administration is continuing to push Sudan and the unrecognized government of Somaliland to accept the forced displacement of Palestinians. Peter Pham, the Trump administration's expected nominee to head the State Department's Africa bureau, is an active supporter of the UAE and Somaliland independence. The UAE is a major power broker in Somaliland, where it trains security forces and controls a major port through its state-owned company DP World, highlighting the UAE's growing influence in the Horn of Africa.
The Trump administration's cold reception to the Egyptian Gaza plan has angered career officials at the U.S. State Department, who have watched as France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom have all endorsed the framework. U.S. diplomats say the White House ignored warnings from career officials not to pressure Egypt to accept the forced displacement of Palestinians, as Middle East Eye has previously reported, underscoring the disconnect between the administration's policies and the views of experienced diplomats.
Trump publicly walked back this demand after being dissuaded in a private conversation with Jordan's King Abdullah II in February at the White House, rather than being persuaded by U.S. officials. The following month, Trump told reporters, "Nobody is moving any Palestinians," indicating a shift in rhetoric, but leaving the underlying policy direction unclear.
