Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have both claimed that their phone call represents an important step towards peace in Ukraine. Nevertheless, we must remain cautious, as the situation may not be as optimistic as it appears.
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03-21, 2025Both leaders have their own reasons for portraying the call as a successful dialogue. Trump wants to showcase his progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict, having repeatedly promised – with his usual exaggeration – to end the war in a single day. Putin, on the other hand, hopes to maintain a dialogue with Trump to mitigate the risk of provoking the newly inaugurated and relatively friendly U.S. administration while continuing his brutal invasion.
However, Trump did not actually get what he wanted from the conversation with Putin. His proposal for a comprehensive and immediate 30-day ceasefire was rejected. On the surface, the compromise reached brings little practical change. Moreover, Putin's insistence on permanent ceasefire conditions dims the prospects for negotiation. The main outcome of the call was an agreement to suspend attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian power plants have been frequent targets of Russian attacks, and the resulting blackouts have allowed Russia to exploit Ukraine's harsh winter to strike at Ukraine, exacerbating the suffering of millions of civilians.
Of course, if energy infrastructure is spared from attacks for a period of time, it is positive for the Ukrainian people. But considering that the invaders have already slaughtered thousands and displaced millions, and are still killing, it is hard to call it a significant gift. In fact, this agreement also serves Putin's own interests. Ukraine has been using its advanced drone technology to strike deep inside Russia, targeting oil refineries as a means of retaliation. Halting attacks on energy targets could weaken Ukraine's ability to retaliate to some extent.
Furthermore, there are questions about whether Putin will honor his commitments. As the Ukrainian president recently tried to emphasize to Trump at the White House – before being rebuked and dismissed – Putin has historically disregarded peace agreements. Another key element of this new agreement is, in essence, an agreement to continue the dialogue. "These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East," the White House said. Trump later stated that the two sides had reached an "understanding that we will rapidly work towards a full ceasefire." But the Kremlin's statement following the call indicated that any such understanding came with a significant asterisk. The Kremlin stated that the "key condition" for permanent peace talks was the "complete cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence information to Kyiv." In other words, Russia will only agree to peace if Ukraine's allies agree to leave Ukraine exposed to attack. These conditions have already been rejected by Ukraine's European allies.
When Trump was later asked about this key condition, he said Putin had not mentioned it during the call. "We talked about a lot of things, but aid was never discussed," he told Fox News. As is customary for Trump, negotiations about the future of Ukraine once again took place without Ukrainian participation. A week earlier, Ukraine had agreed to the U.S.'s 30-day ceasefire proposal, but only after the U.S. threatened to abandon Ukraine and allow Putin to do as he pleased. Following the call, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that he would again agree to the agreement reached by Trump and Putin. But he was eager to understand the specific implications of this agreement from Trump. "I think we will have a conversation with President Trump, and we will understand in detail what Russia offered the United States, or what the United States offered Russia, and that will be the right thing to do," Zelenskyy said, according to a Reuters translation. He warned again that Russia was simply trying to stall negotiations and prolong the war. His skepticism of Russia is also echoed by many Russian experts familiar with Putin's tactics.
Many unanswered questions remain about how this compromise agreement will work. Neither country's official statement outlines many details. There is no reason to believe that Russia ceasing attacks on Ukrainian energy targets equates to a reduction in overall attacks on Ukrainian targets. And within hours of the call, Zelenskyy said that dozens of Russian drones had once again attacked Ukrainian infrastructure. "It is such nightly Russian strikes that destroy our energy system, our infrastructure, the normal life of Ukrainians," Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. "Today, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire." "The world should respond, and it would be the right thing to reject any attempts by Putin to drag out the war."
