Bowen: Long-overdue deal may stop the killing but won't end the conflict

A senior Palestinian official revealed to the BBC that Hamas will release three female soldiers on the first day of the ceasefire. Mediators in Doha are working to push the start of the ceasefire forward, aiming for Thursday evening rather than Sunday.

Until the ceasefire takes effect, the war triggered by Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, continues. In the lead-up to and following the ceasefire announcement, Israeli strikes in northern Gaza resulted in the deaths of at least 12 Palestinians. For the past 15 months, almost hourly video streams from northern Gaza have shown the bodies of the dead, wrapped in shrouds, being taken from ambulances and laid out side by side outside hospitals.

The ceasefire is a major diplomatic achievement, although it is long overdue. Various versions of the agreement have been on the table since US President Joe Biden announced it last May. Both Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the delays. In Khan Yunis in Gaza, journalists working for the BBC filmed Palestinians dancing and chanting after learning of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel does not allow international journalists free access to Gaza to report, so the BBC and other news organizations rely on brave Palestinian journalists to gather news for us. Without their efforts, the past 15 months of war reporting would not have been possible. Israel has killed more than 200 Palestinian journalists in Gaza. An elderly Palestinian woman named Umm Muhammad told one of our reporters that she felt joy and relief.

"The pain has eased a little, although it is still there. Hopefully, it will be overcome by joy. Let our prisoners gain their freedom, and let the wounded be treated. People are exhausted." Beyond survival, there is little for Palestinians in Gaza to celebrate. Israel has killed at least close to 50,000 people. More than 2 million people have been displaced from their homes by Israeli military operations.

Israel's response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, has left Gaza devastated. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israeli attacks have led to the deaths of nearly 50,000 people, including both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal The Lancet suggests this may be a significant underestimation.

In Tel Aviv, it is also a bittersweet moment for the families and supporters of the Israeli hostages, both living and dead. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 women, older men, and the sick and wounded will be released over the next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees and prisoners – but the future of the remaining hostages depends on further negotiations.

Negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, involving the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for imprisoned Palestinians and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, are expected to begin on the sixteenth day after the agreement takes effect. The first major challenge is to ensure the ceasefire can hold. Senior Western diplomats fear that the war could resume after the initial 42 days.

The war in Gaza has had a huge impact on the Middle East. It has not led to a full-blown regional war, as many feared – something the Biden administration claims credit for – but it has led to geostrategic turbulence. Hamas is still able to fight, but it is a shadow of its former self. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

After Hezbollah in Lebanon intervened in the war, it was eventually beaten back by the Israeli offensive. It was a contributing factor to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel have carried out direct attacks – weakening Iran. The network of allies and proxies that Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance" has been paralyzed. The Houthis in Yemen have stopped most of the shipping between Europe and Asia through the Red Sea. There are now reports that they have declared their own ceasefire. They have stated since the beginning of their attacks on shipping that only a ceasefire in Gaza would stop their actions.

With luck, political will, and hard diplomacy, the ceasefire will hold, despite inevitable violations. With luck, it will stop the killing and allow Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees and prisoners to return to their families. But after 15 months of war in Gaza, the conflict, which has lasted more than a century, remains as painful and intractable as ever.

The ceasefire does not end the conflict. The consequences of so much destruction and death will be felt for at least a generation.