What we know about the Gaza agreement

The United States and mediator Qatar have stated that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement that could pause the war in Gaza and facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. This would be the most dramatic breakthrough in the 15 months since Hamas's attack on Israel triggered the war in October 2023.

Details of the agreement, reportedly approved by both sides, have not yet been released. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that several terms remain unresolved, and he hopes to finalize them by Wednesday night. A complete agreement would halt the war in Gaza and allow for the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Hamas captured 251 hostages during its October 2023 attack on Israel, and 94 are still being held, though Israel believes only 60 of them are still alive.

In exchange, Israel is expected to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for many years. The ceasefire agreement is expected to proceed in three phases, with the first phase lasting six weeks once the agreement is announced. U.S. President Biden stated this would achieve a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire."

During the first phase, Hamas will release "some hostages," including women, the elderly, and the sick, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Qatar's Al Thani stated at an earlier press conference that the first phase would involve the release of 33 hostages. Israeli government spokesman David Mencer previously indicated that most (but not all) of the 33 hostages expected to be exchanged are still alive, including children. Initially, three hostages will be released immediately, with the remaining exchanges taking place over the six weeks. During this period, Israeli forces will withdraw from "all" densely populated areas of Gaza, and Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes in all parts of Gaza. Hundreds of trucks will enter Gaza daily, and humanitarian aid will be significantly increased.

The second phase will achieve a "permanent end to the war," according to Biden. The remaining living hostages, including men, will be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. Of the approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel has agreed to release, about 190 have been sentenced to 15 years or more. An Israeli official previously told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released to the occupied West Bank. Israeli forces will also completely withdraw from Gaza. The third phase will involve the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years, and the return of any remaining hostage remains.

Reaching this agreement has involved months of difficult indirect negotiations, particularly because of the complete distrust between Israel and Hamas. Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before releasing hostages, which was unacceptable to Israel. The ceasefire is effectively a pause in the war while the terms are implemented. However, it is unclear whether this means the war will end completely. One of Israel's main war aims is to destroy Hamas's military and governing capabilities. Although Israel has severely damaged Hamas, Hamas still has some capacity to operate and reorganize. It is also unclear which hostages are still alive or have died, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those missing.

For its part, Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners that Israel has said it will not release, believed to include those involved in the October 7th attacks. It is also unclear whether Israel will agree to withdraw from buffer zones on specific dates, or whether its presence in the area will be indefinite. Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile. Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have paused previous wars, but have been undermined by minor clashes and ultimately broken down. The timetable and complexity of this ceasefire mean that even a minor incident could escalate into a major threat.

On October 7, 2023, hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching border fences and attacking communities, police stations, and military bases. Approximately 1,200 people were killed, and more than 250 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel. Israel responded with a massive military response, first with airstrikes and then with a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets throughout Gaza from land, sea, and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets. Israel's offensive has devastated Gaza, leading to severe food shortages and making it difficult for aid to reach those who need it most. According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, Israel's attacks have resulted in over 46,700 deaths, mostly civilians.