Renaud Mae never imagined he would become the "captain" of a hotel in the turquoise waters of the Baie de l'Anse Vata in New Caledonia. After leaving France, he and his wife worked in hotels in Asia and Australia, eventually settling in this French territory and raising two children. They enjoyed the peaceful life and beautiful scenery the region had to offer.
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04-01, 2025However, on May 13 of last year, when violent unrest erupted in the capital of Nouméa, Mr. Mae found himself responsible for the safety of the 200 people stranded at the Le Méridien Nouméa Resort & Spa. "Suddenly, everything fell apart," he said. "You're the captain, so you have to make decisions for your family, your staff, your guests, and the assets of the [hotel] owners." This unexpected crisis forced him to make difficult choices under immense pressure.
In the ensuing weeks of chaos, Mr. Mae helped guests safely return home. But as tourism dried up in New Caledonia, Mr. Mae lost his job, and the corporation that owned the hotel asked him to leave. He and his family were among the nearly 11,000 people who left the territory in 2024. The economic consequences of the unrest further exacerbated the situation for him and his family.
The months of violence, triggered by attempted electoral reforms, left 13 people dead and deepened New Caledonia's divisions over independence from France. It also left a trail of economic devastation: business closures, job losses, and a weakened economy. The New Caledonia Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) said the crisis has created an atmosphere of "insecurity and instability." The long-term effects of these issues remain a concern for the region.
The Nouméa International Airport, which is managed by the CCI, released migration data earlier this year showing a net outflow of 10,700 people from the territory in 2024. While it is unclear whether these departures are permanent, the figure is five times the average of recent years and could portend a significant population decline in the territory of 270,000 people. The exodus—much of it of French nationals—has created other problems. Shortages of doctors and nurses are straining health services, and the CCI says the outflow is dragging down economic development. The lack of skilled professionals is having a detrimental impact on essential services.
There are hopes that New Caledonia is turning a corner, as political parties and French government officials have restarted long-awaited negotiations about the territory's future. But while some French nationals are waiting to see if the talks bring lasting peace before deciding whether to return, others say their decision to leave is final. The uncertainty surrounding the political landscape continues to influence people's decisions.
When a job Mr. Mae was qualified for opened up in French Polynesia, he and his family had three weeks to pack up and leave for the location about 4,700 kilometers across the Pacific. "We were in a hurry. It was very difficult for the children and my wife," he said. The family is settling into a new home on the island of Moorea, where Mr. Mae manages a resort near Tahiti. He is grateful for the opportunity to relocate there and start anew.
But he remains concerned about the situation in New Caledonia. "It's still an amazing territory, but it's suffering," he said. "It really breaks my heart whenever I hear the news and the situation there." While he loves New Caledonia, Mr. Mae has no current plans to return—even for the right job. "I'm not emotionally ready to go back yet," he said. The emotional toll of the experience has made it difficult for him to consider returning at this time.
For those who remain, an arduous recovery effort awaits. According to the CCI, the departure of French nationals has led to a shortage of doctors and nurses in the territory. Data from the French Medical Association of New Caledonia shows that about 20% of the 1,000 doctors registered locally in February 2024 have left the territory since the unrest began. Nouméa hospitals have also been forced to close some departments and suspend some surgeries due to a lack of operating room nurses, said Pierre-Emmanuel Bourgeois, a consultant for the medical association.
Nurses completing contracts returned to "metropolitan" France after the riots, while some doctors moved their practices to safer parts of the capital. "Some communities are without doctors because of the riots," Dr. Bourgeois said. A health professional association, Collectif Santé en danger, has proposed that the government of New Caledonia attract doctors and nurses back to the territory through income tax relief, he said. Such incentives could help alleviate the shortage of medical professionals.
Nearly a year after the unrest began, unemployment remains high. One in five workers lost all or part of their income since the crisis began, and more than half of the 11,000-plus people who lost their jobs after March 2024 remained unemployed at the start of this year. Séverine Blaise, an economist at the University of New Caledonia, said the economic situation is "catastrophic." She said the local government should focus on strengthening social security for people struggling to get by and investing in sectors identified as promoting economic development, such as agriculture.
Above all, she said New Caledonia needs an agreement between pro-independence and anti-independence parties—one that, in her view, should allow for independence but maintain ties with France. "They really have to hurry now to negotiate and find a compromise," Dr. Blaise said. "That's really the best thing that can be done for the country right now." A political solution is crucial for stabilizing the region and fostering economic recovery.
The CCI said New Caledonia's population outflow has exacerbated economic problems and has had a "significant" impact on local businesses. This, combined with reduced economic activity, has led to a sharp drop in consumer spending and reduced tax revenues needed for local public services and infrastructure. New Caledonia's president, Louis Mapou, has said the territory will clarify the number of people who have permanently left in 2024, acknowledging that the issue of emigration is very important.
"If we want a New Caledonia that shines, a New Caledonia that is economically autonomous, where there are people who work, people who consume, people who pay taxes, at some point, we have to make choices about the country we want," he said. He said the government of New Caledonia is cutting public spending to "save" its public services and is working to revive the nickel industry. But he said a political agreement is needed to stabilize the territory. "New Caledonia has the capacity to overcome these divisions," he said. "Everyone must work in this direction, to rediscover what we aspire to most deeply, which is to live together. That is a collective responsibility."
After a year of violence and uncertainty, New Caledonia achieved a breakthrough when France's newly appointed Minister for Overseas Territories, Marie Guévenoux, visited Nouméa last month. Pro-independence and anti-independence parties restarted discussions about the territory's political future, resulting in a "comprehensive" document stating their positions. Some of their views are diametrically opposed, said Denis Fischer, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University's Centre for European Studies. Pro-independence groups are calling for a path toward full sovereignty, while anti-independence groups are pushing to remain with France.
But Ms. Fischer said the document lays the groundwork for future negotiations. "Let's not underestimate the fact of the meeting itself," she said. "Given the current turbulence in New Caledonia, this in itself is a major achievement." ABC has contacted France's ambassador to the Pacific, Véronique Roger-Lacan, for comment, but she did not respond. Ms. Guévenoux is expected to return to Nouméa soon for a new round of discussions. The continuation of these talks is essential for finding a long-term solution.
In French Polynesia, Mr. Mae hopes for peace for his former home. "I hope there is a quick solution. Don't have 25 years of negotiations because that doesn't help the people," he said. "It doesn't help the reputation of the territory, and it's going to be very hard for the people who stay." He hopes that a resolution can be reached swiftly to alleviate the suffering of those still living in New Caledonia.
