How did we reach the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal in Gaza?

The United States and mediator Qatar have announced that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. The agreement still awaits formal approval from the Israeli cabinet and government, and if approved, the first phase, a six-week ceasefire, would take effect on January 19th.

The agreement comes after 15 months of fighting between Israel and the Palestinian armed group and political movement Hamas. The current conflict began on October 7, 2023, when hundreds of Hamas militants attacked Israel's southern border, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages back to Gaza.

Israel then launched a military operation, beginning with airstrikes on Gaza, followed by a full-scale ground invasion on October 27th. Since then, Israel has attacked targets in Gaza from land, sea, and air, while Hamas has fired rockets into Israel. According to data from the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, Israeli attacks have caused over 46,700 deaths, the majority of whom were civilians.

Here is a recap of key events in the negotiations. On October 7, 2023, hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching border fences and attacking nearby communities, police stations, and military bases. Approximately 1,200 people were killed and 251 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel. The Israeli military immediately responded with airstrikes and shelling of Gaza.

On October 27, 2023, Israel launched a ground invasion of Gaza. Israel's massive military operation devastated Gaza, displacing the majority of its 2.3 million residents and leading to over 46,000 deaths. On November 21, with mediation from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, Hamas released 105 hostages in exchange for approximately 240 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, resulting in a one-week ceasefire. Israel and Hamas blamed each other for causing the truce to collapse. On December 28, shuttle diplomacy began regarding a new ceasefire and hostage release agreement.

On May 31, 2024, US President Joe Biden outlined a three-phase ceasefire proposal put forward by Israel in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages. This proposal formed the basis for the agreement reached eight months later. On June 10, the UN Security Council passed a resolution supporting the ceasefire plan. On July 31, negotiations were paused after Israel assassinated Hamas political leader and chief negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran. Discussions resumed two weeks later, initially without Hamas's participation.

On October 17, 2024, Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in southern Gaza. Netanyahu called this the “beginning of the end” of the war. On November 9, after months without a breakthrough, Qatar suspended its efforts as a negotiating mediator. It stated that Israel and Hamas needed to change their positions. Both sides blamed the other for the deadlock. On November 20, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, stating that it "abandoned the vital link between a ceasefire and the release of hostages."

On November 27, 2024, Israel reached a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, ending a 13-month conflict with Hamas ally armed group Hezbollah, which had been triggered by the Gaza war. This renewed hopes for an agreement in Gaza, and Biden stated that he would work with regional powers again. On December 2, US President-elect Donald Trump stated that if the hostages held in Gaza were not released by the time he returned to the White House on January 20, 2025, there would be a "heavy price to pay."

On December 17, 2024, a senior Palestinian official stated that indirect talks were at a “decisive and final stage,” while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that an agreement was closer than ever. On January 13, 2025, in the final week of Biden's term, Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone about the negotiations, after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that an agreement was “very close” and hoped to “get it done” before Trump took office. On January 15, the Prime Minister of Qatar stated that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, which would take effect on January 19. Biden stated that this would “stop the fighting in Gaza, provide much-needed humanitarian relief to Palestinian civilians, and reunite hostages with their families.”