Secret UK 'mini cabinet' tries to plan for unpredictable Trump

The British government is secretly assembling a "mini-cabinet" to prepare for the unpredictability that Donald Trump's return to power might bring. "Everyone is nervous because they simply don't know what he's going to do," said one source, reflecting widespread concerns among governments, business executives, and military leaders about Trump's second term. The prospect of Trump being sworn in for a second time as the most powerful figure in the Western world, and the leader of Britain's largest trading partner, has undoubtedly heightened this uncertainty.

Trump's return presents not only significant risks but also opportunities. Compared to his previous administration, Trump and his team appear to be better prepared this time, potentially adopting a more assertive policy agenda. However, his penchant for keeping the world guessing remains, and this uncertainty has alarmed the British government. Faced with this unknown, the British government is striving to find ways to respond.

To address this challenge, a "mini-cabinet" comprising Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has held a series of secret meetings to devise plans for potential scenarios. An insider revealed that they are not preparing for too many specific scenarios, as trying to guess Trump's next move would be "driving people crazy." However, it is also reported that the government has prepared some documents to be presented for wider cabinet discussions.

It is understood that the government's focus is on "finding opportunities" rather than panicking about some of the outlandish things Trump might say. The Prime Minister has appointed Labour veteran Lord Mandelson as his representative in Washington. Lord Mandelson recently published an article in Fox News, a favorite news outlet of Trump's, praising Trump, a stark contrast to his past sharp criticisms, and other Labour figures have also changed their views of Trump. Nevertheless, the British government is determined to avoid repeating the chaos of Trump's previous administration. "We will remain calm and flexible," a senior official stated.

The British government defines its relationship with the US as that of a "major ally," with the primary objective of maintaining each other's security. This uncertainty is unsettling for the British government and allied capitals in the context of the current turbulent global situation. Intelligence and security ties remained close during Trump's first term, although there were some surprises for the British side. One source recalled, "the most shocking thing was after the Salisbury attack," when President Trump seemed unwilling to take it as seriously as the UK wanted. Nevertheless, Trump's tough rhetoric did lead to more European countries increasing their defense spending. Furthermore, the signing of the Abraham Accords marked some progress in the Middle East peace process. However, there is concern within the government about a so-called "nightmare scenario": if the US reduces its support for Ukraine, it could embolden Russia and potentially lead to a division and weakening of NATO.

While the government is concerned about Trump's unpredictability, they also see opportunities. A senior official stated, "There are opportunities emerging in Ukraine and the Middle East. We need to work together to influence US actions on these foreign policy priorities." Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed similar views, arguing that the primary task for allies is to find ways to manage uncertainty to minimize risks for everyone. Sources point out that Iran's power has diminished, there has been progress on a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel, and there is a desire on both sides to end the conflict in Ukraine. Trump's bold claim of ending the war in a day has softened to a three to six-month target, and "there is no sign of a rush to walk away now." Both Kyiv and the British government believe that negotiations are imminent, and the UK hopes to help shape US policy approaches rather than panic about a US retreat. Stoltenberg also urged Trump to continue providing weapons to Ukraine to strengthen its position in future negotiations with Putin.

While the government is far from accepting Trump's demand to increase defense spending to 5%, senior figures in Whitehall privately acknowledge that his call for Europe to invest more in its own defense is not entirely illogical, which helps those advocating for increased defense spending. Meanwhile, there is unease in the economic sector. Some hedge fund traders may profit from the volatility Trump might cause, but other areas of the economy are concerned. A source in the financial world said they are always "on tenterhooks waiting for the next quirky idea or for him to say something mad that will affect their business." Trump has also advocated for tariffs on imports to help domestic trade, but the IMF has warned that imposing additional tariffs on other countries could hit them hard and affect profitability elsewhere in the world.

The cabinet recognizes that if Trump acts as he has implied, it would be a massive shift. One minister stated, "This is a significant historical moment, with the US committing to a fundamentally different way of doing business than it has since the Second World War." China and the EU, two major trading blocs, are likely to respond, which could lead to "huge implications for a global trade war." Another senior official warned that the UK may struggle to play a role in a conflict of this scale, stating "there will be a tussle between the three and they won’t be too focused on Britain or our interests." A financial insider believes the UK may fall out of favor as Trump seeks deregulation and tax cuts with the help of Elon Musk, as Trump's ambition is to build an economy that is "radically different to ours" which could create tensions. However, another financial insider noted that the stock market is "one of the metrics he cares about most," and that is driven by big tech companies, many of which rely on selling products to China. "The love for the tech titans means he won't want to upset that too much," they said.

Whether it's economic issues, Ukraine, or anything else, the relationship between the President and the Prime Minister will be crucial. Starmer and Trump are starkly different personalities, one a lawyer-like leader known as "Mr. Rules," and the other a convicted felon who has consistently acted as if the rules do not apply to him. A Downing Street source said to ignore all the noise, pointing out that the two met in the autumn and have had three phone calls. "What really matters is the direct dialogue, and whatever Trump’s personal style, it's clear that the substance is there," they added, noting that the Prime Minister’s calm temperament helps. However, others who have dealt with Trump have warned that things could be difficult. "When it's good, it's very good, when it's bad, you might be terrified," one source said.

A former official who attended meetings between Trump and Boris Johnson said, "they were like two silverback gorillas wrestling," which made the staff in the next room laugh. Johnson would "sycophantically flatter him" to get his way. This official also attended phone calls between Trump and Theresa May. These calls were completely different, "with a clear misogyny, he would talk over her," talking about the Queen or inviting her to play golf instead of discussing the thorny issues May wanted to raise. They believe that how to handle Trump will be Starmer's biggest challenge: "We sent a vicar’s daughter, then a pirate who knew how to handle him, and now a human rights lawyer," they said, adding "that won’t work in a world that’s increasingly looking like 1930s strongmen."

Whatever happens behind the scenes, defending Trump's decisions as America's closest ally could be deeply uncomfortable for the Prime Minister. A former Downing Street official stated, "If Trump says Ukraine has to be partitioned, Boris would say that's appalling, and everyone else in Labour would say it's appalling, but if Starmer can't sell it in Europe, Trump will take offense, and he will punish him." Starmer’s allies are more optimistic, arguing that "political positions don't have to align for a relationship to succeed." They must hope it will. It is no secret that Labour had hoped for a Democrat to be elected, with some staff even going to knock on doors for Kamala Harris. The government's problem is how to influence Trump to get what Britain wants and how to remain calm when the inevitable drama unfolds. "It may cost something, but it's in our interest for him to succeed, rather than for him to become petulant," one foreign policy insider told me.

The incoming president is perhaps a symbol and product of this age of change and uncertainty. As one minister put it, "Everything is moving in a Trump direction." We cannot be certain what a second Donald Trump will do. But after his incredible comeback and months of tension on both sides of the Atlantic, we won't have to wait too long to find out.