Will Lebanon finally elect a president?

The Lebanese parliament is convening to elect a president of the republic, following a vacancy of over two years since the term of the previous president ended. Lebanese political parties and key figures have been in negotiations with foreign officials, as discussions intensify over who will hold this crucial post.

In Lebanon, the parliament is responsible for electing the president, with candidates campaigning among political blocs and members of parliament rather than among the Lebanese electorate. Out of 128 members of parliament, a candidate needs a majority of at least 86 votes to be elected. Since the end of the civil war in 1990, the Lebanese president has typically been a candidate acceptable to all sides and not affiliated with any political movement. Former President Michel Aoun was an exception, having led the Free Patriotic Movement before his presidency.

According to Lebanon's system of political representation, the president must be a Maronite Christian. The current leading candidate is General Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who seems likely to secure the threshold of over 86 votes. His name has been under discussion for over a year and has garnered international support. Joseph Aoun would not be the first army chief to become president, as previous presidents Émile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman, and Michel Aoun had also held the position.

Joseph Aoun is relatively uncontroversial and has gained broad support, including from Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, the National Moderation Bloc, Sleiman Frangieh's Marada Movement, the Kataeb Party, and some of the reformist MPs elected in 2022. The right-wing Christian Lebanese Forces party has not explicitly stated its position but has indicated it might support Aoun, who is also believed to be the preferred candidate of the United States. Previously, Sleiman Frangieh was another main contender but withdrew his candidacy the day before the vote, shifting his support to Joseph Aoun.

Besides Joseph Aoun, several other candidates are in the running, including former finance minister and International Monetary Fund employee Jihad Azour, and the interim head of Lebanon's General Security Directorate, Elias Baysari. Additionally, there is businessman and MP Neemat Frem, and Gebran Bassil of the Free Patriotic Movement. Former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud has also occasionally been mentioned as a possible consensus candidate. Once Lebanon elects a president, he will appoint a prime minister, who will then form a government to replace the caretaker government. International lenders have stated that Lebanon needs broader systemic reforms to address corruption and a lack of transparency.

Many Lebanese political parties seek foreign funding or support to consolidate their influence domestically. Foreign powers such as the United States, France, Iran, and the Arab Gulf states may also encourage the election of a leader they approve of by promising foreign aid.