Made in China 2025 'hugely successful' despite US efforts to thwart plan

Ten years ago, China announced an ambitious plan called “Made in China 2025,” aimed at transforming the country from a “low-cost manufacturing base” into a “high-tech powerhouse.”

President Xi Jinping's policy sought to make China a world leader in a range of industries, from advanced computing to aerospace, and included massive investments in related technologies like artificial intelligence and green energy. A decade later, despite attempts by the U.S. government to thwart it, analysts told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) the plan has been "very successful."

Dr. Zeng Lin, chief economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, stated that "Made in China 2025" is the cornerstone of China's industrial policy and its ambition to move up the value chain. "More importantly, it has solidified China's position as a global manufacturing powerhouse," Dr. Zeng said.

Lindsey Gorman, a former Biden White House advisor on emerging technologies, echoed this sentiment, calling "Made in China 2025" an "incredible" success. "Any analysis of the People’s Republic of China's competitiveness in these ten sectors must acknowledge that China is either a global leader or a close follower in almost all of them," said Ms. Gorman, who is now the Managing Director for Technology Programs at the German Marshall Fund in Washington.

She highlighted two successful examples, including how Huawei has become a global leader in 5G and advancements in clean energy. "In emerging energy storage and the automotive sector — areas identified by ‘Made in China 2025’ — China's success has also exceeded the wildest expectations of the plan, with the development of electric vehicles posing a disruptive threat to the traditional automotive industry," she told the ABC. China’s BYD surpassed Tesla in 2024 to become the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer. However, Ms. Gorman added that China has not had the same success in some industries, such as commercial aviation. "In other industries, such as biotechnology, the PRC has had some successes and is poised for further growth in an era of big data and the application of genes to medicine," she added.

In 2018, “Made in China 2025” caught the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term in the White House. Analysis provided to the ABC by Harvard Business School shows that some of the first tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China explicitly mentioned “Made in China 2025.” "The United States will impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion of imports from China with industrially important technologies, including those related to the 'Made in China 2025' program," Trump said in a memorandum signed in March 2018.

According to U.S. media reports, in May of the same year, Trump's trade delegation to Beijing explicitly demanded that China stop subsidizing high-tech industries related to "Made in China 2025," such as robotics and clean energy vehicles. Following strong U.S. opposition, from June 2018, mentions of "Made in China 2025" in Chinese state media and official documents "dropped dramatically," but China’s industrial ambitions continued, the Harvard analysis stated.

Trump later told U.S. media that "China got rid of their China 2025 because I found it very insulting." Recently in China, state media has been praising the success of initiatives related to “Made in China 2025” without directly mentioning the plan. Articles and social media posts have highlighted numerous high-tech advancements, including in artificial intelligence and sixth-generation fighter jets. Dr. Shi Heling from Monash University said state media has an “obligation to sing its praises” because 2025 is the final year of the plan. She said it is difficult to know from state media whether the detailed technological advancements in the story are real or a “dog and pony show.”

The ABC contacted multiple China analysts for this report, but none responded to requests for interviews. Dr. Shi also stated that the Biden administration has been effective in blocking China’s manufacturing of advanced computer chips. She said Huawei is a prime example. "From a technological perspective, Huawei's phone technology is still two to three generations behind [Apple]."

Trump had pledged to impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from China on his first day in office, but in his inauguration speech as the 47th U.S. president, he made no specific mention of tariffs. Instead, Trump said the U.S. would collect "huge" revenues from foreign trade tariffs. A Trump administration official added that Trump would also issue a broad trade memo that did not immediately impose tariffs, but instead directed federal agencies to assess U.S. trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng attended Trump's inauguration, which was seen as a gesture of goodwill as China was only represented by its ambassador at the previous two U.S. presidential inaugurations. Before the inauguration, Xi and Trump spoke on the phone on Friday. Trump called the conversation "very good," while Xi said that they both wanted a positive start to U.S.-China relations. The relationship between the two leaders started well during Trump’s first presidency but deteriorated with the start of the trade war.

Professor William Kirby of Harvard Business School said the dynamic now is shaped by a “mutual suspicion,” with each side believing the other “is undermining its national security.” He said “the U.S. unilaterally imposed tariffs and started a trade war with China, which was not good for either side,” and it is unclear how China will respond to the new U.S. tariffs. "I expect some form of retaliation of a greater magnitude," Professor Kirby added. Dr. Zeng Lin of the Mercator Institute for China Studies said that Trump will be facing a "very different" and "well-prepared" China. "I think there is a risk of underestimating how prepared China is for more conflict and its willingness to retaliate," he said. "They will not only retaliate with tariffs, but also with actions to cause and maximize pain."

Experts say there is no clear or publicly available replacement for “Made in China 2025,” but Beijing is expected to release its 15th Five-Year Plan this year, covering 2026 to 2030. **ABC/Reuters**