The CIA believes COVID most likely originated from a lab but has low confidence in its own finding

The latest assessment report from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) indicates that they now believe the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated in a laboratory. The report points the finger at China, but also acknowledges the intelligence agency's "lack of confidence" in its own conclusion.

This finding is not based on any new intelligence; the report was completed at the request of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. The report was declassified and released on Saturday after John Ratcliffe, an agency head appointed by President Donald Trump, was sworn in as director.

This nuanced conclusion suggests that the CIA believes the totality of evidence indicates a laboratory origin is more likely than a natural one. However, the agency's assessment has a low level of confidence in this conclusion, suggesting insufficient, uncertain, or conflicting evidence. Previous reports on the origins of the coronavirus have been divided on the question of whether the virus may have leaked from a Chinese laboratory due to an error or if it arose naturally.

This new assessment is unlikely to quell the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say that the issue may never be resolved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities. The CIA wrote in a statement about its new assessment: "The CIA continues to assess that both scenarios of research-related and natural origins of the COVID-19 pandemic are plausible." The conclusion is not based on new evidence, but on an updated analysis of the virus's spread, scientific characteristics, and the work and conditions at Chinese virus labs.

Lawmakers have been pressing U.S. intelligence agencies for more information about the virus's origins, as the virus has led to lockdowns, economic turmoil, and millions of deaths. This is an issue with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the pandemic's legacy. Republican Senator Tom Cotton, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on Saturday that he was "glad the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation," and praised Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessment. "Now, it's imperative that China be made to pay for unleashing this plague on the world," Cotton said in a statement.

The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Chinese authorities have in the past dismissed speculation about the origins of the coronavirus as unhelpful and politically motivated. While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that, like many coronaviruses, it spread in bats, then infected another species, possibly raccoon dogs, civets, or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans who handled or butchered these animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

However, some official investigations have raised questions about whether the virus leaked from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago, a report by the Department of Energy concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely origin, although that report also expressed low confidence in the finding. In the same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus "most likely" spread after escaping from a laboratory. Ratcliffe, who served as Director of National Intelligence during Trump's first term, has also expressed support for the lab leak scenario. Ratcliffe said in 2023, "The lab leak is the only theory that is supported by science, intelligence, and common sense." The CIA said it will continue to assess any new information that may change its assessment.