The future of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un’s curious relationship

2025-01-28 04:25:00

Abstract: Trump may reach out to Kim Jong-un again after past summits failed to achieve denuclearization. Kim is now stronger and less dependent on US.

In 2019, when Donald Trump first stepped onto North Korean soil, cameras struggled to capture a steady image. Then-U.S. President Trump, the 45th, patted North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the arm, who then guided him across the demarcation line separating North and South Korea—two nations still technically at war. This historic moment marked a rare meeting between the two leaders.

Behind them, chaos ensued in the heavily guarded Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) as TV crews scrambled for a clear view through a wall of North Korean bodyguards who seemed surprised by the influx of American media. Amid the commotion, a journalist requested assistance, and the White House press secretary had to pull them from behind the security cordon to join the photo opportunity between Trump and Kim. The meeting was clearly arranged on the spur of the moment.

"I never expected to see you in this place," Kim Jong-un told Trump. The U.S. president organized this impromptu meeting via Twitter, where he suggested meeting Chairman Kim at the DMZ, “just to shake his hand and say hello!” This impromptu invitation led to the third and final incredible television moment between the showman president and the once-reclusive dictator.

Now, it seems, there may be more meetings. Trump told host Sean Hannity in a Fox News interview broadcast last Thursday that he would “reach out” to Kim again. “I got along with him very well,” Trump added. “He’s not a religious zealot. He happens to be a smart guy.” According to the BBC, there has been very little contact between the U.S. and North Korea in the past four years under the Biden administration. Washington sent messages, but Pyongyang did not respond.

The last time the two countries met was during Trump's previous term, but it failed to produce a long-awaited deal for North Korea to give up its prized nuclear weapons. Since then, Kim Jong-un has advanced his missile program and claimed to have successfully tested a hypersonic missile, despite facing strict international sanctions. This is a far cry from the times when Trump used to boast that the two had “fallen in love.” The question is, can that relationship be rekindled? Or might things be very different this time?

After all, Washington will now be dealing with a very different Kim Jong-un. Over the past four years, his alliances and fortunes have shifted, and his relationship with another world leader appears to have strengthened. So, does this mean that his dynamic with Trump has fundamentally changed? “It’s absolutely possible,” said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and director of the Stimson Korea Program. “You can see from Donald Trump’s decision to appoint a special envoy to handle sensitive issues, including North Korea, I think that speaks to where his head is at right now on this.”

Trump has already recalled some of the people who helped him arrange his summits with Kim, including former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, who was selected as the president’s special envoy to handle special assignments in “some of the hottest spots” around the world, including North Korea. But things have also changed in those years. “North Korea is going to spend the first year proving to Trump that Kim Jong-un is not the same as he was in 2017—he’s militarily stronger, he’s politically stronger, and if they get back to that point, it’s going to be a very different negotiation,” Ms. Town believes.

Kim Jong-un is also embracing a new friend—Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has helped North Korea secure food and fuel in exchange for weapons and soldiers for his war in Ukraine. Pyongyang is no longer as desperate for the U.S. to lift sanctions as it once was. Rachel Minyoung Lee, a senior analyst on North Korea for the U.S. government, told the BBC that Pyongyang had already “prepared the people” by informing them through official media of Donald Trump’s return.

But she believes, "The bar for entering negotiations is going to be higher now than it was before.” She added: “Two things would have to happen: either North Korea would desperately want to return to the negotiating table, for example, due to an economic collapse or a significant cooling in its relationship with Russia; or the U.S. would have to offer North Korea something drastically different from what it has done in the past.” Trump fueled speculation about restarting talks with Kim at a recent signing ceremony in the Oval Office, when he said: “I got along with him very well. He likes me. I like him. We get along.”

But Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the National Intelligence Officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, said the Trump administration should be realistic this time. “Arms control is a distraction. There’s no arms control to be had with North Korea. We’ve tried arms control,” he said. “Maybe North Korea will sit down and talk, maybe they’ll avoid long-range missile launches, they won’t do a seventh nuclear test, and the problem will be basically manageable. That’s the best-case scenario.”

“The worst-case scenario is that even if you talk, they will continue to launch, they will continue to test. So, Donald Trump has to consider: What is the value of engaging with North Korea?” Especially as they will both be carrying the deep scars of their last meetings. I watched the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, in the cold of 2018, and an unexpected guest sat below my balcony seat—Kim Jong-un’s sister. This was the first time a member of the Kim family had visited South Korea since the end of the Korean War, a visit that caused my Korean producer to gasp.

Sitting in the stands near her was U.S. Vice President Mike Pence. As I observed, they barely looked at each other. But it was still a remarkable step in diplomacy, unimaginable just months before. When Trump took office in January 2017, he had been warned about North Korea. The previous three presidents had failed to successfully force the country to give up its nuclear weapons after rounds of negotiations and sanctions. After Donald Trump took office, Kim Jong-un launched a missile almost every month.

The president expressed his fury on Twitter, threatening to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea. He called Kim Jong-un “Little Rocket Man,” and in response, Pyongyang gave Trump the nickname “dotard.” Then came the threats about pushing the nuclear button, first from Pyongyang, then from Washington. Trump tweeted that he also had a nuclear button, “but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

After a year of intense clashes and brinkmanship, some in Seoul began to wonder if they should prepare for war—then everything changed. South Korea’s liberal president, Moon Jae-in, had always wanted to break the deadlock with Pyongyang. His parents were born in refugee camps after fleeing the war in the North. He even visited his aunt there during a rare family exchange between the two countries. When Pyongyang opened a crack and asked—could North Korea participate in the Winter Olympics? Under Moon Jae-in, Seoul opened the doors wide.

Trump arrived in Singapore for his summit with Kim, promising to make history. The North Korean leader strolled through the bustling city center at night and took selfies as if he were out with friends. He had rarely left his country, but he was proving that he also knew how to put on a show. But even after numerous photo ops and handshakes with Trump, this now very personal form of diplomacy produced almost no concrete commitments from North Korea to disarm. They both signed a vague statement promising to work towards denuclearization and pledged to meet again.

The stakes were higher at the second Trump-Kim show in Vietnam. For an American president who boasted about his deal-making abilities, photo ops alone were not enough. We waited for hours on the humid streets of Hanoi, outside the doors of the French colonial-era Metropole Hotel, where we were initially told the two were having lunch. But it turned out that lunch was canceled. The BBC interviewed three people who were at the summit to find out what exactly went wrong. It seems that both leaders had overestimated their hands.

Trump offered to lift U.S. sanctions on North Korea if Kim Jong-un gave up all his nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear facilities. The president had reportedly been warned that North Korea had rejected this deal in the past, but he believed his personal relationship with the North Korean leader would help him succeed. But that was not the case. Kim Jong-un was betting that Trump would accept a more modest deal. He also believed that their personal relationship would give him the upper hand. He offered to dismantle his aging Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for ending all U.S. sanctions since 2016.

“Singapore gave Kim Jong-un some prestige and convinced him that the United States had finally woken up and was talking to me in my own way,” Mr. Seiler said. “He came to the table expecting, because he had been quietly guided by the South Koreans, who said, Donald Trump is politically desperate, he is no longer listening to John Bolton, he is willing to make a deal that puts a small part of your nuclear program on the table in exchange for sanctions relief.”

But the president had also been briefed. He was told that North Korea could still produce uranium at an enrichment center near Pyongyang. The U.S. said that it had been monitoring other sites that they believed North Korea had secretly kept for some time. “I think they were surprised that we knew about it,” Trump said later. The deal that Kim Jong-un offered was not insignificant, but it was not good enough for the U.S. president. “Kim Jong-un came to the table and he didn’t have a Plan B,” Mr. Seiler said. “So, when Donald Trump said we need to do more, Kim Jong-un remained completely inflexible.”

According to sources the BBC spoke to, Kim Jong-un tried to salvage the deal. He sent an aide to remind Washington what was on the table, that they would dismantle the entire Yongbyon plant. But Trump had already left for the airport. “The story of Hanoi needs to be sorted out,” Mr. Seiler said. “The common theme is that Donald Trump walked out of the room. It was an all-or-nothing deal, and when Kim Jong-un was not willing to put everything on the table, Donald Trump walked. That’s a very simple, rough assessment of what happened in Hanoi.”

As Trump flew back to Washington, the North Koreans took the unprecedented step of holding a press conference. Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters that the opportunity might never come again. It hasn’t so far—and Kim Jong-un may be considering whether to engage in talks again. “There really was an opportunity there,” Jenny Town said. “Kim Jong-un actually built expectations internally in North Korea that they were on the cusp of a breakthrough that would deliver benefits.”

“If we had been able to capture that moment, we could have gone down a very different path. Would you have achieved denuclearization easily? Absolutely not. But would we be in a very different place in terms of tensions on the Korean peninsula and how far North Korea has come in its nuclear development? Perhaps. We’ll never know, but there was a willingness at the time that doesn’t exist now.” Donald Trump's unorthodox diplomacy eased tensions for a while, but it did not stop the expansion of Pyongyang's weapons program.

His 20 steps into North Korean territory may have also legitimized a regime with one of the worst human rights records in the world. But after three meetings, there seemed to be some sort of connection between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un that gave some hope that one day there might be peace on the Korean peninsula. _Image source: Getty Images_ [_BBC In-depth_](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bbcindepth) _is the home of the best analysis on the website and app, providing fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and delve deeper into the biggest issues of the day. We also showcase thought-provoking content from BBC Sounds and iPlayer. You can send us your feedback on the In-depth section by clicking on the button below._

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