Champions League table: Points, permutations, who has qualified & how the knockouts work

This season marks the first time the Champions League has adopted a league stage format, and with the final round of matches approaching, 25 out of the 36 participating teams are still awaiting their final fate. All 18 matches will be played simultaneously at 20:00 GMT on Wednesday evening, with the results of 16 of these games directly impacting teams' chances of advancing.

Manchester City faces a significant risk of elimination after their 2-4 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the previous round. Liverpool has already qualified, and Arsenal is almost certain to advance, while the match between Aston Villa and Celtic is filled with suspense. The "live standings" will be constantly updated, and each team's hopes of progressing will depend on the results of other matches.

This season is the first year of the new format, which replaces the previous four-team group stage with the top two from each group advancing. The new format aims to avoid inconsequential matches in the final round of the group stage. Former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher wrote on social media: "This is fantastic, instead of the boring scenes we have seen in the final round for years."

First, let's review the objectives of the 36 teams participating in the league stage. The top eight teams will directly qualify for the Round of 16 and become seeded teams. They will await the winners of the two-legged knockout play-offs between the clubs ranked ninth to twenty-fourth. The teams ranked ninth to sixteenth will be seeded and will play the second leg of their knockout ties at home against teams ranked seventeenth to twenty-fourth. Clubs ranked twenty-fifth or lower will be eliminated and will not participate in the Europa League. The knockout play-offs will take place in mid-February, with the Round of 16 matches scheduled for the first two weeks of March.

Currently, Liverpool and Barcelona have secured their places in the top eight. Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Celtic have at least secured a place in the top 24. Meanwhile, the qualification scenarios for PSV Eindhoven, Club Brugge, Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting CP, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, and Shakhtar Donetsk remain unclear. Bologna, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Bratislava, and Young Boys have been eliminated.

Manchester City's qualification situation is straightforward: if they beat Club Brugge at home, they will enter the knockout play-offs; if they fail to win, they will be eliminated. They cannot qualify directly for the Round of 16. Aston Villa is guaranteed at least a play-off spot. A home win against Celtic would give them a strong chance of finishing in the top eight, but they would need one of the five teams above them to slip up. Even if they win, Villa could be overtaken on goal difference by any of the four teams currently behind them. Celtic is only one point behind Villa, so they theoretically have a chance to finish in the top eight, but they need to win and require a lot to happen above them.

Arsenal travels away to Girona, and they are almost certain to reach the Round of 16, as they are three points ahead of the play-off zone and have a far superior goal difference to any of the teams on 13 points. Liverpool is one of only two teams, along with Barcelona, to have already secured a place in the Round of 16 and will be guaranteed to finish in the top two. Big teams like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are among those ranked between ninth and twenty-fourth, and they will be hoping things go their way to ultimately finish in the top eight.

A team's final position in the league determines who they will face in the knockout stages and when they will meet them. Taking Liverpool as an example, the Reds have now secured a top-two finish, which will give them a seeded spot in the Round of 16. This means the Reds will face a team ranked 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the Round of 16. It will not be known who that will be until after the play-offs, but the pre-determined draw means it will be the winner of the match between the teams ranked in those four positions. Liverpool will not face the team that finished second in the league stage, or first if they are overtaken in the final round, until the final.

By contrast, a team that finishes seventh or eighth may face a team ranked slightly lower than them in the league stage - ninth or tenth. More on the play-offs in a moment. The teams ranked ninth to sixteenth will be seeded in the knockout play-off draw. This means they will face a team ranked between seventeenth and twenty-fourth. Who the seeded teams face will be determined by the draw, but clubs only have two possible opponents. For example, the teams ranked 11th and 12th will be paired together and will play against either the team ranked 21st or 22nd. Another group will pair the teams ranked ninth and tenth to play against the team ranked 23rd or 24th. These two groups will be drawn into opposite halves of the overall draw, and as a reward for being ranked higher than their opponents in the league stage, the seeded teams will play the second leg of the play-offs at home.

Unlike previous years, teams eliminated from the Champions League – either in the league stage or by losing a play-off – will not drop into the Europa League. The draw for the play-offs will take place at 11:00 GMT on Friday. Opta has provided predictions on who will reach the play-offs and the Round of 16. It uses computer modeling software to analyze team form, opponents, and potential seeding to come up with probabilities. The table makes for interesting reading. For example, Celtic is given a 100% chance of reaching the play-offs – the Opta computer does not think they will beat Aston Villa by the required margin to move up the table. Real Madrid has a lower chance of reaching the play-offs than Celtic – because Opta thinks they still have a chance of finishing in the top eight.

One of the reasons UEFA changed the format was its desire for “every game to matter.” It said the format “will ensure that any result can dramatically change a team’s ranking until the final round of matches.” This has proven to be the case, with only two inconsequential matches (Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig and Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade) and 16 matches with significant outcomes. Several games are between two clubs fighting for the same goal, such as Manchester City vs Club Brugge, Stuttgart vs Paris Saint-Germain, Brest vs Real Madrid, and Inter Milan vs Monaco. This could create enjoyable chaos for fans, with some teams potentially impacted by the results of 10+ other games. For example, Aston Villa could be overtaken by six teams or overtake as many as 15 (although not all 15), including opponents Celtic.

UEFA also wanted to increase the number of matches between top teams in the initial stages of the competition. This year, there have been three final rematches between Real Madrid against Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool, Barcelona vs Bayern Munich, and Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. Failing to progress to the next round means suffering a financial hit. Each club in the league stage is awarded an entry fee of €18.62m (£15.6m), with a bonus of €2.1m (£1.8m) for every win and €700,000 (£587,000) for every draw. Each position in the table is also worth €275,000 (£231,000). Therefore, the team that finishes 36th will receive that amount, the team that finishes 35th will receive €550,000 (£461,000), and so on until the team that finishes first receives €9.9m (£8.3m). The teams that finish between first and eighth will also receive a bonus of €2m (£1.7m), and the teams that finish between ninth and sixteenth will receive €1m (£840,000).

The prize money for reaching each knockout stage is shown below. UEFA has also introduced a "value pillar" for the distribution of broadcasting revenue. This will similarly increase based on your final position in the league stage. This does not include matchday revenue and other factors. In other words, being eliminated early is quite costly. | Stage | Prize Money (per club) | | --- | --- | | Knockout Play-offs | £840,000 | | Round of 16 | £9.3m | | Quarter-finals | £10.6m | | Semi-finals | £12.7m | | Runner-up | £15.6m | | Winner | £21.1m |