TikTok creators left in limbo awaiting decision on potential platform ban

Will the U.S. ban TikTok this month? This question is causing anxiety among content creators and small business owners as the final decision could upend their livelihoods. The fate of the popular app rests with the Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments on January 10 regarding a law that would require TikTok to sever ties with its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a U.S. ban.

At the heart of the case is whether the law violates the First Amendment. TikTok and its creator allies argue that it does, while the U.S. government argues that it does not, citing the platform as a national security risk. For creators, this TikTok doomsday scenario is not new, as former President Donald Trump attempted to ban the platform via executive order during his first term.

Although Trump’s recent statements indicate he now wants TikTok to remain, the prospect of a ban has never been more imminent, with the Supreme Court being the final arbiter. If the government prevails as it did in lower courts, TikTok has stated it will shut down its U.S. platform on January 19, forcing creators to redefine their futures.

“A lot of my other creative friends are freaking out. But I’m staying calm,” said Jillian Johnson, who benefits from TikTok’s live-streaming feature and its rewards program, which helps creators generate higher revenue potential by posting high-quality, original content. The 22-year-old filmmaker and recent college graduate uses her TikTok earnings to fund her project equipment, such as camera lenses and editing software for her short films “Gambit” and “Awaken! My Neighbor.” Johnson stated the idea of TikTok disappearing is “unfathomable.”

Many creators have already expressed their frustration on TikTok, grappling with the possibility that the platform they have invested so much in could soon vanish. Online communities are at risk of disruption, and the economic impact could be particularly devastating for those who rely primarily on TikTok and have quit full-time jobs to build careers and income around their content. According to Johnson, the uncertainty has led some to question whether to continue creating content, and she says she knows some creators who are considering giving up.

However, Nickla Bartoli, vice president of sales at The Influencer Marketing Factory, said the creators she has spoken with are not too worried, as news of a potential TikTok ban has surfaced and subsided repeatedly over the years. “I believe a large portion of people think it’s not going to happen,” Bartoli said, whose agency works to pair influencers with brands.

It is unclear how quickly the Supreme Court will make a decision. But if at least five of the nine justices believe the law is unconstitutional, the court could act quickly to prevent the law from going into effect. On Trump’s side, he has asked the justices to pause the ban so he can weigh in on the matter after taking office. In a brief written by a solicitor general he picked, Trump called the TikTok ban's impact on the First Amendment “far-reaching and disturbing,” and said he wanted a “negotiated resolution” to the issue, a goal the Biden administration unsuccessfully pursued.

While they wait for the dust to settle in Washington, some creators are exploring other ways to promote themselves or their businesses, encouraging users to follow them on other social media platforms or putting more time into creating non-TikTok content. Johnson said she is already strategizing her next steps and exploring other opportunities. While she has not found a place quite like TikTok, she has begun spending more time on other platforms, such as Instagram and YouTube, which are expected to benefit financially if TikTok disappears.

According to a Goldman Sachs report, the so-called creator economy, partly fueled by TikTok, could be worth $480 billion (A$774 billion) by 2027. With opportunities to monetize content across various platforms, many creators have already diversified their social media presence. However, many TikTok creators feel that the platform and its algorithm have provided them with exposure they have not gained on other platforms. Some say it has also fostered and provided opportunities for creators of color and other marginalized groups.

Despite concerns about TikTok's fate, industry analysts note that creators typically avoid making any major changes, such as abandoning the platform, until something actually happens. “I’m both anxious and trying to remain hopeful in a weird way,” said Brandon Hirst, who credits TikTok with rescuing his business from obscurity and fueling its rapid growth. A year after joining TikTok, Hirst, a 30-year-old plant seller, said his sales have doubled, surpassing the traction he struggled to gain on Instagram. He built his customer base through TikTok’s live-streaming feature, which has helped him sell more than 77,000 plants.

The business has grown so well that he says he now employs five people, including his husband and mother. “For me, it’s the only way I do business,” Hirst said. Billion Dollar Boy, an influencer marketing agency based in New York, has advised creators to download all of their TikTok content into a personal portfolio, especially for those who primarily post on the platform, said Edward East, the agency's founder and group CEO. This can help them quickly build an audience elsewhere. Additionally, it can serve as a resume for brands that may want to partner with them for product advertising, East said.

But until the January 19 deadline arrives, East said that creators should continue to post regularly on TikTok, which has 170 million monthly users in the U.S. and remains very effective in reaching audiences. If the Supreme Court does not delay the ban, as Trump has asked them to do, app stores and internet service providers will be required to stop providing TikTok service by January 19. This means anyone who does not have TikTok on their phone will not be able to download it. TikTok users will continue to have access, but the bans—which will prevent them from updating the app—will eventually render the app “unusable,” the Justice Department has said.

TikTok stated in court filings that it estimates a month-long shutdown would cause the platform to lose about one-third of its daily users in the U.S. The company argues that even a temporary shutdown would cause it irreparable harm, a legal hurdle that judges use to determine whether to pause a challenged law. In less than three weeks, Americans will know if the Supreme Court agrees.