Algorithm study 90% accurate predicting bowel cancer

A new study indicates that a novel method for detecting bowel cancer has an accuracy rate exceeding 90% in predicting which high-risk individuals will develop the disease. Approximately 500,000 people in the UK suffer from inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Currently, these patients undergo regular screenings for precancerous lesions in the bowel, and if such lesions are found, it means they have about a 30% chance of developing bowel cancer within 10 years.

However, research in the UK has found that when DNA changes in these precancerous cells are analyzed through an algorithm, the accuracy of predicting who will develop bowel cancer within the next five years exceeds 90%. Researchers used tissue samples from IBD patients, but hope their method can be used to develop a simple blood test to identify those IBD patients at the highest risk. Craig Foster's wife, Fariba, died of bowel cancer last year.

"Research like this will save lives," said Craig Foster from Waterlooville, Hampshire, whose wife Fariba died of bowel cancer in February 2024. "It gives me comfort knowing there are scientists working hard to ensure no one has to go through what Fariba went through." Fariba had ulcerative colitis since the age of 18, at which time three-quarters of her bowel was removed. "Fariba died only six months after being diagnosed with cancer. Despite the short time, it was the worst period. Cancer doesn't discriminate; it affects everyone in some way, regardless of who you are or where you come from."

Professor Trevor Graham from the Institute of Cancer Research in London stated that the new test should help identify high-risk individuals, reassuring many others. "Most people with ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease will not develop bowel cancer. However, for those who have these conditions and show precancerous signs in their colon, they face a difficult decision. They either undergo regular monitoring, hoping it doesn't turn into cancer, or have their bowel removed to guarantee they won't develop cancer in the future. Neither option is particularly pleasant. Our test and algorithm provide IBD patients and their doctors with the best possible information so they can make the right decisions about how to manage their cancer risk."

Marianne Radcliffe of the charity Crohn's & Colitis UK said that this is indeed good news for people living with these conditions. "People tell us that one of the most difficult things about having Crohn's or colitis is the uncertainty – both in their day-to-day lives and in the long term. As with inflammatory bowel disease, we know that the earlier cancer is detected, the better. Any method that can achieve earlier detection through faster, less invasive diagnostic tests, and remove some of that uncertainty, is incredibly exciting." Cancer Research UK funded this research, and Dr. Iain Foulkes of the organization stated that advances in technology are reshaping our understanding of diseases like cancer. "Genomic sequencing is now much cheaper and more accessible than ever before, and it is transforming how we look at cancer. Having a complete reading of a tumor’s DNA means we can understand more fully how someone's cancer started and how it might change in the future. With this research, we can focus resources on treating those IBD patients who are truly at high risk, saving valuable time and money for healthcare services. We can also give peace of mind to those at lower risk and remove the fear of developing bowel cancer in the future."