'Key lessons' for conservation as India's tiger population doubles in a decade

A new study indicates that despite having the highest population density globally and only 18% of the world's tiger habitat, India now boasts the largest tiger population. In just over a decade, India's tiger numbers have doubled, reaching over 3,600, accounting for 75% of the world's total tiger population.

These tigers currently inhabit an area of 138,200 square kilometers (53,360 square miles), roughly half the size of the UK, while coexisting with approximately 60 million people. The study, published in the journal Science, attributes this success to protecting big cats from poaching and habitat loss, ensuring ample prey, reducing human-wildlife conflict, and improving the lives of local communities.

The study's lead author, Yadwendra Dev Vikramsinh Jhala, told the BBC, "We think that population density is not conducive to the conservation of large carnivores like tigers. But what matters more is people's attitudes, not density." He cited Malaysia as an example, where despite a thriving economy and lower population density than India, its tiger population has not successfully recovered.

The research by Mr. Jhala, Ninad Avinash Mungi, Rajesh Gopal, and Qamar Qureshi analyzed the distribution of tigers in India from 2006 to 2018. Since 2006, India has surveyed tiger habitats in 20 states every four years, monitoring big cats, co-predators, prey, and habitat quality. During this period, its tiger habitat grew by 30%, approximately 2,929 square kilometers per year.

Researchers found that while India's tigers thrive in protected, prey-rich areas, they have also adapted to landscapes shared with nearly 60 million people, primarily living in agricultural communities and settlements outside tiger reserves and national parks. The extent of tiger-human coexistence varies across India, influenced by economic, social, and cultural factors.

The study found that states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, and Karnataka have high densities of tigers sharing space with human populations. Conversely, in areas with a history of poaching, such as Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and northeast India, tigers are either absent or have been extirpated. These regions also include some of India's poorest areas.

In other words, researchers noted that tiger-human coexistence often occurs in economically prosperous areas that benefit from tiger-related tourism and government compensation for conflict losses. However, Mr. Jhala says that development can be a "double-edged sword." Researchers indicate that economic prosperity through sustainable ecosystem use aids tiger recovery. Yet, it often leads to land-use changes that harm tiger habitats.

Researchers stated, "Thus, tiger recovery is constrained by both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum, i.e., intensive urbanization and poverty." "Therefore, inclusive and sustainable rural prosperity, rather than economies driven by intensive land-use change, may benefit tiger recovery, which is consistent with modern Indian environmentalism and sustainability."

The researchers found that armed conflict also significantly increases the risk of tiger extinction. Globally, political instability has led to sharp declines in wildlife populations as militants use wildlife for funding, turning lawless areas into poaching hotspots. In India, Manas National Park lost its rhinos during conflict, similar to the decline in Nepal's rhino population during civil unrest.

Researchers found that tiger extinctions occurred in areas affected by India's Maoist conflict, particularly in tiger reserves in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. They said that reserves where conflict has been controlled—Nagarjunasagar-Srisailam, Amrabad, and Similipal—have shown signs of recovery. Additionally, several habitats in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and eastern Maharashtra face armed insurgency, leading to lower tiger distribution and higher extinction risks.

Researchers said, "With improved political stability, these areas could see a recovery of tigers." The habitats in India without tigers—approximately 157,000 square kilometers—are primarily in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Jharkhand. Researchers said that reintroducing tigers and enhancing habitat connectivity in protected areas within these regions could restore approximately 10,000 square kilometers.

Researchers stated that recovering large carnivores in crowded, impoverished areas is a challenge. One approach is "land sparing," separating people from predators. Another approach is "land sharing," supporting coexistence between humans and wildlife. Critics argue that "land sharing" can lead to conflict, while "land sparing" may be impractical. The study suggests that in India, both approaches—"land sparing" and "land sharing"—are necessary for tiger recovery, as each plays a "role" in conserving big cats.

India is also grappling with increased human-wildlife conflict, resulting in deaths from tiger attacks. How does this reconcile with the growing tiger population? Mr. Jhala said, "We have 35 people dying from tiger attacks per year, 150 from leopard attacks, and the same number from wild boar attacks. In addition, 50,000 people die from snake bites. And then there are about 150,000 people who die from car accidents every year."

"It's not about the number of deaths. Two hundred years ago, humans dying from predators was part of normal mortality. Today, they are abnormal, which is why they make headlines. In fact, within tiger reserves, you are more likely to die in a car accident than from a tiger attack."