Doubts new Trump tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada will end illegal fentanyl flow to US

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a new round of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, citing one of the main reasons as stopping the flow of illegal fentanyl into the United States. Trump stated that the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and most of Canada are also intended to force these two countries to take more measures to curb illegal immigration into the U.S. The tariffs on the U.S.'s largest trading partners, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, are set to take effect on Tuesday U.S. time.

So, where exactly does the illegal fentanyl flowing into the U.S. come from? Can tariffs stop this drug from taking American lives? What is fentanyl? How severe is the U.S. epidemic? Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid, approved for pain relief and anesthesia in medical settings. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, it is about 100 times more potent than morphine and about 50 times more potent than heroin in terms of pain relief. However, fentanyl has also become a popular illicit drug and is one of the biggest causes of drug overdose deaths in the U.S. "This is a major crisis in this country," said Rodney Coates, a sociologist at the University of Miami.

The latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that in the 12 months ending in August 2024, there were 89,740 fatal overdose deaths due to fentanyl and all other street drugs. This figure is down 21.7% compared to the previous 12 months, and far lower than the "250,000 to 300,000 people" that Trump falsely claimed in January. Despite this decrease, Professor Coates said the scale of the fentanyl crisis remains "appalling."

According to security analyst Vanda Felbab-Brown, most of the finished fentanyl imported into the U.S. comes from two Mexican drug cartels that use "precursor chemicals" from China to make the drug. Dr. Felbab-Brown, who directs a synthetic opioid project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that precursor chemicals are the more basic chemicals used to make fentanyl. "Very little finished fentanyl is shipped from China to the U.S.," she said. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration did not respond to a request for an interview on this matter, but information on the agency's website confirms Dr. Felbab-Brown's explanation. The agency's website explains that precursor chemicals are typically shipped from China to Mexico, where they are used to make powder and pills in clandestine labs. The deadly drug is then smuggled into the U.S. via land, sea, air, and underground routes, and distributed by local criminals.

In the White House statement on the reasons for Trump's new tariffs, Canada's role in the fentanyl trade entering the U.S. was not clearly explained. The statement only noted "an increasing presence of Mexican drug cartels operating fentanyl and nitazene synthesis labs in Canada." Nitazene is a deadly synthetic opioid that can be even more potent than fentanyl, and hundreds of times more potent than heroin. But Dr. Felbab-Brown said that fentanyl is not imported into the U.S. from Canada. "In fact, Canada has a huge and devastating fentanyl market. But it is completely separate from the U.S. fentanyl market," she said. Recent data released by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shows that only about 1% of fentanyl in the U.S. comes from Canada.

Experts say this is the first time the U.S. has imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drug and immigration issues, but U.S. tariffs on China began in 2018 during Trump's first presidential term. China introduced stricter fentanyl regulations in 2019, officially classifying fentanyl-related substances as a controlled class of drugs. As relations between Beijing and Washington deteriorated in the following years, cooperation on drugs also deteriorated. But in 2023, the Biden administration achieved a breakthrough with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the two countries restarted cooperation to combat fentanyl. John Coyne, director of the national security program at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said that while China has cracked down on some precursors, its agreement with the U.S. is not deep enough. "Ultimately, what needs to happen is the Chinese Communist Party needs to regulate and do compliance monitoring of their chemical and pharmaceutical industries and be good international citizens," he said. "If they wanted to, they could stop the flow of precursors and synthetic opioids into North America."

Experts say that even if Mexico and China successfully crack down on their roles in the trade, tariffs are unlikely to curb the flow of illegal fentanyl into the U.S. and solve the drug crisis. Dr. Coyne said that organized crime groups that ship fentanyl and other drugs to the U.S. frequently change their methods. "We all know that the Mexican drug cartels are particularly challenging," he said, adding that they are well-connected and violent. Dr. Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution said that drug manufacturers may reroute their finished product through other countries. She said that if Mexican fentanyl makers have difficulty getting precursors from China, new suppliers in other regions, such as India, will emerge. Professor Coates of the University of Miami agreed with this, and questioned Trump's move to suppress illegal immigration into the U.S. He said these people play an important role in the U.S. economy, often working in low-paying jobs in the service industry, such as hotels. "If you stop the flow of immigration and send them all home, what does that do to our prices for agriculture, construction, landscaping, and a whole range of service jobs?" he said.

Canada has responded by imposing tariffs on $170 billion (CAD 277 billion) worth of U.S. goods. Mexico is still studying how to respond, while China is preparing to take the U.S. to the World Trade Organization to have the tariffs removed. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated Beijing's position that "there are no winners in trade and tariff wars." "China calls on the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices, maintain the hard-won positive momentum of drug control cooperation, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. relations," the spokesperson said. The new tariff orders against China, Mexico, and Canada all include a provision to suspend the tax exemption for low-value goods under $800. This exemption is widely considered a loophole that allows fentanyl and its precursor chemicals to be shipped into the U.S. Such small shipments often avoid inspection at ports of entry, allowing the transportation of drugs and their components to enter undetected.