Donald Trump wants Ukraine to trade rare earths for military aid as war with Russia goes badly

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he wants Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earth minerals as financial compensation for U.S. support in Ukraine's war against Russia. Trump told reporters at the White House that Ukraine is willing to do so, adding that he wants the EU to "equalize" its support to Washington, which he valued at "nearly $300 billion."

“We are telling Ukraine that they have very valuable rare earths,” Trump said, adding, “We are looking at an arrangement with Ukraine where they would use their rare earths and other resources to guarantee the assistance we are giving them.” It is currently unclear whether Trump uses the term "rare earths" to refer to all types of critical minerals or just rare earth elements themselves.

Rare earths are a group of 17 soft, heavy metals used to make high-performance magnets, lasers, and other applications critical to advanced technology. There are currently no known substitutes. The U.S. Geological Survey considers 50 minerals critical to the U.S. economy and defense, including several types of rare earths, nickel, and lithium. Ukraine has significant deposits of uranium, lithium, and titanium, but their reserves are not among the world's top five. The U.S. itself also has undeveloped reserves of these and other critical minerals.

The U.S. currently has only one operating rare earth mine and very limited processing capacity, although several companies are working to develop domestic projects. China is the world's largest producer of rare earths and many other critical minerals. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are retreating near Pokrovsk, a crucial supply hub. This location sits at the intersection of several highways leading to major cities in the Donetsk region, as well as an important railway station.

Ukraine is facing difficulties due to a severe shortage of infantry and supply lines that are under attack from Russian drones. Simultaneously, the Trump administration is pushing for negotiations to end the war. Although U.S. military aid has not stopped, the Trump administration recently froze foreign aid to Ukraine, a move that has alarmed Ukrainian officials who are concerned about the new U.S. president’s intentions.

Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk say that Russian forces have changed tactics in recent weeks, switching to attacking their flanks instead of head-on assaults, in an attempt to encircle the city. With Russia controlling the high ground, allowing them to use drones up to 30 kilometers deep into Ukrainian-held territory, Ukraine's supply lines are now within their range. Recent foggy weather has prevented Ukrainian soldiers from effectively using reconnaissance drones, allowing the Russians to consolidate their positions and gain more territory.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders say they do not have enough reserves to hold the line, and newly formed infantry units have failed to perform in combat operations. Many are placing hope in Mykhailo Drapatiy, a respected commander recently appointed by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as commander of ground forces, hoping he can turn the tide and launch counterattacks. “Victory in war depends on logistics. If there are no logistics, there are no infantry, because there is nothing to supply them with,” said “Afer,” the deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion. “(The Russians) have understood this, and they are doing it well.”

Multiple factors led to Kyiv effectively losing the settlement of Velyka Novosilka last week, the biggest advance since Russia occupied the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region this January. Ukrainian commanders say that isolated Ukrainian soldiers are still operating in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka, prompting criticism from some military experts who question why higher command has not ordered a full retreat. The village, a road junction 15 kilometers from the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region, has seen authorities there begin digging fortifications for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, in anticipation of further Russian advances.

Recent foggy weather has made Ukrainian drone reconnaissance “almost impossible,” a commander near Pokrovsk told the Associated Press. He said that long- and medium-range reconnaissance is not possible. He requested anonymity to speak freely about sensitive military matters. “Because of this, the enemy is gathering forces … taking up positions, digging in. They are doing very well in this regard,” he said.

Critical logistical routes along paved roads and highways are now under direct threat from Russian drones due to Moscow’s recent advances, further intensifying the pressure on Ukrainian forces. The Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad-Dnipro highway is “already under the control of Russian drones,” said a commander on Pokrovsk’s flank. He said that Russian forces are less than 4 kilometers away, impacting Ukrainian traffic. “Now, the capacity of this road is only 10% of what it used to be,” he said. Another paved highway, the Myrnograd-Kostiantynivka road, is also under Russian fire.

This also means that military vehicles must struggle through open fields in bad weather to deliver fuel, food, and ammunition, as well as evacuate the wounded. At a first aid station near Pokrovsk, a medic with the call sign “Malik” said that evacuating the wounded used to take hours, but now takes days. “(Enemy drones) see everything, it’s very difficult,” he said.

Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk say that the shortage of combat troops is “catastrophic,” and the challenges are compounded by newly formed infantry units that are undertrained and inexperienced, forcing battle-hardened brigades to step in to stabilize the front lines. “Afer” complained that the new recruits “constantly expand the front line because they abandon positions, they don’t hold positions, they don’t control positions, they don’t monitor positions. We do almost all the work for them.” “Because of this, the initial area of responsibility was 2 kilometers, and eventually, the area of responsibility for each battalion is 8-9 kilometers, which is too much, we don’t have enough resources,” Afer said.

He said his battalion is particularly hard hit by a lack of drones, having only half of what they need. “It’s not because their infantry qualities are lower, but because they are absolutely not prepared for modern warfare,” he said, referring to the new recruits. His battalion has almost no reserves, forcing infantry units to hold front-line positions for weeks. He said that for every one of his soldiers, the Russians have 20, emphasizing how outnumbered they are. At the first aid station, an injured soldier with the call sign “Fish” was recovering from a leg injury he sustained while trying to evacuate a fallen comrade. Nearby Russian mortar shells exploded as he was moving him from a shelter to a vehicle. “We are doing what we can, we are doing our best to fight back,” he said.