Why does Donald Trump want to take over Gaza and could he do it?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently suggested that the United States could "take over" and "own" the Gaza Strip while resettling its residents. This suggestion has sparked widespread shock and condemnation, seen as a blatant violation of the rights of the Palestinian people.

Trump's remarks come as a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel takes effect, also raising questions about the future after the Gaza conflict. The United Nations estimates that about two-thirds of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed in the past 15 months of fighting, making the reconstruction task daunting.

Trump's vague proposal could herald the biggest shift in U.S. Middle East policy in decades, upending the broad international consensus on Palestinian statehood, which envisions a Palestinian state comprised of Gaza and the occupied West Bank coexisting with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the idea was "worthy of attention," but it has been flatly rejected by Arab countries and some U.S. allies.

Trump argues that decades of U.S. diplomatic efforts on the Israeli-Palestinian issue have failed to resolve the conflict. He pointed out from the perspective of a real estate developer that if Gaza is to be rebuilt, it makes no sense to have thousands upon thousands of civilians living among the ruins. The task of rebuilding Gaza will be immense, requiring the clearing of unexploded ordnance and piles of rubble, the repair of water and electricity lines, and the reconstruction of schools, hospitals, and shops.

Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said this could take years, during which time the Palestinians would need to go somewhere. However, Trump is encouraging them to leave permanently, rather than exploring ways to keep them close to home, such as in camps in the central and southern Gaza Strip. Trump believes that after they leave, an American-owned "Middle East Riviera" will rise from the ashes, providing thousands of jobs and investment opportunities, ultimately becoming "a place for the people of the world to live."

Even for a president who upended U.S. Middle East policy during his first term, including moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, this is a shocking proposal. No U.S. president has ever suggested that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would involve occupying a piece of Palestinian territory and expelling its population. Doing so by force would be a grave violation of international law.

Some Palestinians may choose to leave Gaza and rebuild their lives elsewhere. As many as 150,000 people have done so since October 2023. But others cannot or will not do so, either because they lack the financial means or because their attachment to Gaza is too strong. Many Gazans are descendants of those who fled or were driven from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948, an event Palestinians call the "Nakba" (catastrophe).

For Palestinians who dream of having their own state, losing part of Gaza would feel like an amputation. Gaza has been geographically separated from the West Bank since 1948. Previous rounds of negotiations, as well as Trump's 2020 "Vision for Peace," included plans for tunnels or railways connecting the two territories. Now Trump is essentially telling the Palestinians to give up on Gaza altogether. While he does not appear to be advocating for the forced expulsion of civilians, which would violate international law, Trump is clearly encouraging Palestinians to leave.

Palestinian officials have already accused Israel of preventing the delivery of tens of thousands of caravans that could help Gazans reside in less damaged areas while reconstruction takes place elsewhere. Trump has expressed outrage at Arab countries, mainly Egypt and Jordan, which he says should take in as many as 1.8 million Gazan refugees. Both countries have enough of their own problems without adding this burden.

Gaza was occupied by Egypt for 19 years before it was captured by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War. Under international law, it remains occupied by Israel, although Israel disputes this. Israel says the occupation ended in 2005 when it unilaterally dismantled Jewish settlements and withdrew its troops. About three-quarters of UN member states recognize Gaza as part of a sovereign Palestinian state, but the United States does not. Cut off from the outside world by fences and an Israeli naval blockade, Gaza has never truly felt like an independent place. Nothing and no one can enter or leave without Israeli permission, and the international airport, which opened to fanfare in 1998, was destroyed by Israel during the Second Palestinian Intifada in 2001.

After Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006 and drove its rivals out of the territory in fierce fighting the following year, Israel and Egypt imposed a blockade on Gaza for security reasons. Even before the most recent war, Palestinians already viewed Gaza as an open-air prison.

Needless to say, the United States has no legal claim to the territory, and it is unclear how Trump intends to implement American rule. Just as with his hardline claims to U.S. control over Greenland or the Panama Canal, it is unclear whether Trump really believes this, or whether these comments represent a bizarre opening gambit ahead of tough negotiations on the future of Gaza. Various plans for the governance of post-war Gaza have already been discussed by all parties.

Last December, the two major Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, agreed to form a joint committee to oversee its administration, but so far, this agreement has not materialized. At other times, discussions have focused on establishing an international peacekeeping force, possibly made up of troops from Arab countries. Reuters reported last month that the UAE, the US, and Israel discussed forming an interim government in Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) is ready to take over, which already controls parts of the West Bank. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has previously insisted publicly that the Palestinian Authority will not play any role in the operation of post-war Gaza.

To some extent, U.S. troops are already there. An American security company employs about 100 former U.S. special forces personnel who are stationed at a key checkpoint south of Gaza City and screen vehicles of Palestinians returning to the north for weapons. Egyptian security personnel have also been seen at the same checkpoint. These may be early signs of an expanded international presence (possibly led by the U.S.) in Gaza. But this is hardly an American takeover, which would require a massive military intervention in the Middle East, something Trump has long told voters he wants to avoid.

Negotiations on the second phase of a two-week ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas have barely begun, but it is hard to see how Trump's explosive remarks will help advance them. If Hamas believes that the end result of the whole process is a depopulated Gaza, not just without Hamas, but without all Palestinians, it may conclude that there is nothing to talk about and hold onto the remaining hostages seized on October 7, 2023.

Netanyahu's critics accuse him of looking for excuses to blow up the negotiations and resume the war. They will surely conclude that with these comments, Trump is a willing accomplice. On the other hand, the Israeli prime minister's right-wing supporters are pleased with the US takeover plan, which could reduce the risk of cabinet resignations and make Netanyahu's near-term political future look more secure. In that sense, Trump has given Netanyahu a powerful incentive to maintain the ceasefire.

When asked if he agreed that the U.S. should recognize Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank, Trump said he had not yet taken a position, but that he would make a statement in four weeks. This remark has alarmed Palestinians, for whom such a statement would inevitably be seen as another nail in the coffin of the two-state solution. Recognizing the legitimacy of Israeli settlements in the West Bank would be a far-reaching move. Most countries in the world consider them illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this.

In previous rounds of peace talks, negotiators acknowledged that Israel would retain most of the settlements as part of a final agreement, possibly in exchange for small parcels of Israeli territory. In 2020, Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, which secured the historic normalization of relations between Israel and two Arab countries, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. The UAE signed the agreement on the premise that Israel would not annex parts of the West Bank, an understanding that may now be in jeopardy.