Donald Trump's Gaza plan has the potential to spark disaster on a huge scale

The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has been called Israel's "9/11," and the analogy holds weight. Just as the collapse of the Twin Towers in New York made us realize that the world had fundamentally changed, we were initially unsure of the specific direction of that change. This uncertainty fueled anxieties about the future.

In retrospect, we know that "9/11" led the United States to launch a series of protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, triggering a seemingly endless cycle of violence that cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Similarly, as the horrific images of the Hamas attack on Israel spread across the globe, it became clear that the Middle East would never be the same. The region braced for a new era of conflict and uncertainty.

The immediate impacts of the attack are obvious: Israel's siege of the Gaza Strip, with Israeli bombing having already caused tens of thousands of deaths, and the conflict spreading to Lebanon and northern Israel. Now, we are witnessing yet another huge shift in the long-term consequences of that day. The geopolitical landscape is rapidly transforming.

Donald Trump has strongly criticized the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – which he called "endless wars" – and the loss of life and property they caused for the United States. However, he is now promising that the US will once again intervene in the Middle East, in a way that is illegal under international law and could trigger a disaster of similar magnitude. This apparent contradiction raises concerns about the consistency of his foreign policy approach.

Donald Trump's proposal is shocking. He not only wants to permanently relocate the more than 2 million Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip, but he also wants the United States to take over the area – using the military if necessary – raze it to the ground, and then redevelop it into a "Middle East Riviera." The scale and audacity of this plan are truly remarkable.

"As far as Gaza is concerned, we're going to do what we have to do," he said. "We're going to take over that land, and we're going to develop it, and we're going to create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it's going to be something that the whole Middle East is proud of." When asked who would live there after the redevelopment, Trump said, "...people all over the world." When pressed on whether that included Palestinians, he replied, "Palestinians will be living there too. A lot of people will be living there."

In a press conference, he abandoned decades of bipartisan policy – including consensus with key allies such as the EU and Australia – in support of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. But Donald Trump makes all kinds of statements, so how seriously should the world take this? The international community is left to grapple with the implications of such a drastic shift in policy.

In this case, the world seems to need to take it very seriously. This was not an off-the-cuff, spur-of-the-moment remark by Trump at a rally or in an interview. He first floated the idea last week. Today, he doubled down, adding details while standing next to the Israeli Prime Minister after a meeting in the Oval Office. The timing and context suggest a deliberate and calculated move.

For observers, the biggest test will be the reaction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – will he deflect Trump's comments, or will he endorse them? He chose to endorse them. "I think that's worthy of looking at. We're discussing it. He's exploring it with his team, with his staff. I think it's worthy of pursuing and actually seeing if it can be advanced because it might change history, really move it on a different course," Netanyahu said. This alignment of views is a significant development.

Israeli endorsement of this plan is not surprising, but even so, it still seems like a delusional plan. First, it is unimaginable that approximately 2 million Gazans would simply acquiesce to being moved to refugee camps in Egypt or Jordan. Trump claims that the "only reason" Palestinians want to return to Gaza is that "they have no choice" – but that is far from the truth. The reality is much more complex and deeply rooted in history.

Every year, Palestinians commemorate the "Nakba," or "catastrophe," the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war who were never allowed to return to their homes. Many families still keep the large iron keys to their houses and have consistently demanded the right of return. The families in Gaza never left. Their history goes back generations – to when their land on the Mediterranean was more habitable than it is now. This historical connection to the land is a powerful force.

Donald Trump talked about this today: "I think you could turn it into an international, incredible place. I think the potential of Gaza is unbelievable." But even in recent years under the Israeli and Egyptian blockade, when Gaza has been described as the world's largest open-air prison, Gazans have still been proud of their home. Many know that if they leave Gaza, they will never return. The sense of identity and belonging is strong, despite the difficult circumstances.

There is also the question of how this could be done. Would 2 million people be forced to leave at gunpoint? While Trump claims that "everybody I speak to likes the idea of the US having that land," it is unimaginable that the international community would accept this. In September, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly passed a Palestinian resolution (124 in favor, 14 against, with Australia one of 43 members to abstain) demanding that Israel end its "illegal presence" in Gaza and the occupied West Bank within a year.

In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States had military help from allies, including Australia, but it is hard to imagine them lining up to support this. Donald Trump's plan is to move Gazans to new "beautiful areas with houses and safety" in Jordan and Egypt. Both countries have already flatly rejected the idea. Saudi Arabia has condemned it as well. And remember, it's illegal under international law. The lack of international support is a major obstacle.

Yet Trump remains undeterred. "I have a feeling that despite them saying no, that the King of Jordan and the General from Egypt will open up and give us the land that we need," he said. When George W. Bush sent US troops into Iraq, the White House was convinced that the Iraqi people would celebrate the fall of Saddam Hussein and welcome the Americans and their plan to turn the country into a democracy and a model for the region. This historical parallel serves as a cautionary tale.

What resulted was a bloody mess. Even two decades later, the country is still struggling to achieve stability. Trump's ambitions for Gaza are far less lofty; less a nation-building exercise than a real estate project. But his plan seems even less likely to succeed. The gap between his vision and the realities on the ground is vast and potentially insurmountable.