Where does Trump’s renewed ‘maximum pressure’ leave any Iran-US deal?

U.S. President Trump has swiftly relaunched pressure tactics against Iran, emphasizing that he does not want Iran to possess nuclear weapons. This move marks another adjustment in the Trump administration's policy towards Iran, drawing widespread attention from the international community.

Iranian authorities have stated that they do not intend to yield, reiterating that Iran's official policy of not seeking to develop nuclear weapons remains unchanged, while also leaving room for dialogue. This statement from Iran has somewhat eased tensions, but also hints at fundamental differences in the positions of both sides.

Let's review how the complex situation has evolved nearly seven years after Trump initially launched the "maximum pressure" policy. Tehran has consistently maintained that this policy is a failure and has not achieved its intended effects.

Speaking at the White House, Trump stated that he was reluctant to launch a new round of pressure tactics against Iran, but promised to increase sanctions on Iranian oil to "zero." At the same time, he emphasized that his sole priority is to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump also claimed that if Iran attempts to retaliate for his order to assassinate Iranian senior general Qassem Soleimani in 2020, he has left instructions to "destroy" Iran.

Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum aimed at restoring the maximum pressure policy on Iran. The memorandum lacks detailed information on specific measures for "maximum pressure," but Trump hinted that these measures would be severe and stated that he felt "conflicted" and "unhappy" about signing the memorandum, hoping he "won't have to use it to a large extent." In May 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement reached between Iran and world powers, which limited Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions and the suspension of others.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he wants Iran to be a great and successful nation, but only on the condition that it does not possess nuclear weapons. He also stated, "Reports of the United States, in conjunction with Israel, blowing Iran to smithereens is greatly exaggerated." He simultaneously touted a "Nuclear Peace Deal," claiming that it would lead to celebrations throughout the Middle East.

The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is a landmark agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) after years of negotiations, which placed strict limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of UN sanctions. The agreement stipulated that Iran's uranium enrichment be capped at 3.67%, significantly limited its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, restricted the deployment of centrifuges to only the first-generation IR-1 model, and converted the critical Fordow enrichment facility into a research center. The agreement also introduced heavy water and plutonium restrictions, prohibited the construction of new enrichment facilities, and envisioned one of the most stringent nuclear verification regimes in the world.

To the cheers of Israel and its Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement without proposing an alternative and imposed the most severe U.S. sanctions on Iran ever.

The comprehensive sanctions implemented during Trump's first term covered the entire Iranian economy and were not relaxed even during the severe COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. The administration of former President Biden also added sanctions, but Republican rivals constantly accused it of lax enforcement because it engaged in indirect negotiations aimed at restoring the Iran nuclear deal—which remains dormant but has not officially died. A key sunset clause of the agreement is set to expire this October, which would deprive the U.S. and the EU of the ability to quickly restore UN sanctions by triggering the Iran nuclear deal's "snapback" mechanism.

The Iranian economy, which had begun to stabilize after the nuclear agreement provided some relief, has been pushed into years of turmoil by sanctions. The purchasing power of tens of millions of ordinary Iranians has been increasingly eroded by rampant inflation, with the Iranian currency, the rial, falling to a historic low of approximately 840,000 to the U.S. dollar on the open market this week. Before the sanctions, the exchange rate was below 40,000 rials to $1.

Iran continues to face an energy crisis, leading to occasional shutdowns of critical services across the country and severely exacerbating air pollution, especially in the capital. But the Trump team appears determined to cut billions of dollars from Iran's treasury by strictly enforcing Washington's sanctions regime and implementing new designations.

Potential plans may include targeting the so-called Iranian-managed "ghost fleet," vessels that often turn off transponders, fly flags of other countries, and register in third countries in order to secretly transport crude oil. It may even mean the U.S. seizing more ships, a move Iran has called "piracy" and retaliated against by confiscating vessels.

Washington may also be considering increasing pressure on China, as China has been the largest buyer of Iranian oil for years. But with Trump hinting that he is ready to reignite a trade war with Beijing, his plan to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to "zero" looks far-fetched.

Iran is one of the world's largest holders of oil reserves and a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which represents the world's largest oil-producing nations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, while meeting with the OPEC Secretary-General in Tehran on Wednesday, urged OPEC member states to unite to counter potential sanctions imposed by the United States.

The centrist president, who won the election in July after the death of his hardline predecessor Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, also stated that his government will strive to deepen relations with neighboring countries and other partners to cope with sanctions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that if Trump only wants an Iran without nuclear bombs, then this is "achievable and not a difficult thing." Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, stated that Trump's insistence on opposing nuclear bombs is "stating the obvious."

"We have stated that we are not pursuing and will not pursue nuclear weapons, and we still maintain cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," he said. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani did not specifically comment on the possibility of direct dialogue with the United States or the possibility of Pezeshkian meeting with Trump, only stating that Tehran's foreign policy is based on "the three principles of dignity, wisdom, and expediency."

After retaliating for years of Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities and Western-backed resolutions of condemnation issued by the IAEA Board of Governors, Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, just a step away from the 90%+ needed to make a bomb. According to the global nuclear watchdog and Western intelligence agencies, it also possesses enough fissile material to make multiple bombs, but has not taken any practical steps to build a nuclear weapon.

Last month, Iranian diplomats participated in consultations with European powers aimed at reaching an understanding on the nuclear issue, and both sides agreed that more talks would be held soon. Following the downfall of former President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the blows against the Tehran-led "axis of resistance," Iranian armed forces have been holding large-scale military exercises, which are expected to continue in the coming weeks.

The exercises mainly focus on air defense, but also include demonstrations of offensive capabilities, such as underground missile bases including a range of projectiles capable of reaching Israel, a new drone carrier, and fast boats capable of carrying anti-ship missiles.