The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global economic growth will stabilize at 3.3% this year and next, before gradually slowing to just over 3% in the following five years, well below historical averages. This forecast reflects the ongoing challenges and downside risks facing the global economy.
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02-11, 2025IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to rebound to around 3.6% in 2025. According to the Emirates News Agency WAM, this recovery is expected to be driven by increased oil production and a reduction in regional conflicts.
Georgieva noted at the 9th Arab Fiscal Forum, a preliminary day event of the World Government Summit (WGS) 2025 in Dubai: "Policymakers have generally been successful in controlling inflation, but this is not the case in all countries, and inflation is rising again in some. This could lead to a divergence in interest rates across countries and increase borrowing costs for emerging markets and developing economies."
She warned that global public debt is expected to reach 100% of global GDP by 2030. She added: "Many countries in the region face similar pressures, with debt levels exceeding 70% of GDP. This puts them at risk of falling into a low-growth, high-debt trap."
Georgieva outlined several challenges currently facing governments, including creating jobs, strengthening social security systems, adapting to national security and reconstruction needs, enhancing resilience to natural disasters, and promoting economic diversification. These challenges require comprehensive and sustainable responses from governments.
She also stated: "Digital innovation, including artificial intelligence technologies, is expected to significantly increase the UAE's GDP by 2030. Increasing R&D spending will further improve productivity." Furthermore, she emphasized the positive role of technological advancements in economic growth.
Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, highlighted the different growth rates between emerging economies and middle-income countries, noting that some countries are experiencing significant slowdowns due to financial and geopolitical pressures. He emphasized that the IMF will continue to provide financial and technical support to developing countries, while strengthening structural reforms to encourage sustainable growth.
