Premier League title race: What has Merseyside derby draw done to Liverpool and Arsenal chances?

Just as Liverpool seemed poised to take a commanding nine-point lead at the top of the table, Everton defender James Tarkowski stepped up. He scored a brilliant equalizing goal in the Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, forcing Liverpool to settle for a draw.

Everton fans celebrated the moment wildly, as did Arsenal fans, as the result gave them hope of catching Liverpool. Currently, all teams have completed 24 games, with Arsenal trailing by 7 points with 14 games remaining.

Despite the setback, Liverpool remains in a favorable position. Captain Virgil van Dijk stated in an interview with BBC Sport: "For us, the most important thing is to fully focus on ourselves, not pay attention to what other teams are doing or what the media is writing, just focus on ourselves." He added, "Every game will be tough until the end of the season, and eventually we will see if the result is good enough. But we have put ourselves in a good position and must continue to work hard."

In theory, Liverpool could still be overtaken with 42 points remaining to be won. However, historical data suggests that this is unlikely. In the Premier League era, the largest deficit overcome by a chasing team when they had also completed 24 games was 5 points, achieved by Manchester United in 2003 and Manchester City six years ago. The largest deficit overcome after the league leader had completed 24 games was 9 points, achieved by Manchester United in 1996 and Arsenal in 1998, but they had one and two games in hand, respectively.

The Opta supercomputer predicts that Liverpool has an 88.3% probability of winning the league title, while Arsenal's probability is only 11.6%. Third-placed Nottingham Forest is 10 points behind Liverpool, and historically no team has been able to recover such a large deficit at this stage and ultimately win the title. Their probability of winning the title is only 0.1%. Chelsea is fourth, and defending champion Manchester City is 16 points behind Liverpool; the Opta supercomputer believes that both teams have a 0% probability of winning the Premier League title this season.

Liverpool's schedule is very congested in the coming weeks, with a league game almost every three days until the end of the month. But in March, the situation will ease significantly, with Liverpool scheduled to play only one league game, a home match against bottom-of-the-table Southampton. However, this does not mean that March will be quiet, as Liverpool will also play Newcastle in the League Cup final on March 16. In addition, Liverpool will participate in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 on March 4 or 5, with their opponent being one of Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica, Monaco, or Brest. The second leg will be held at Anfield a week later.

Liverpool will host Crystal Palace at the end of the season, hoping to have already secured the title by then. Liverpool's schedule for their last 14 Premier League games is as follows: (omitted)

Arsenal is currently on a 14-game unbeaten run in the league (9 wins, 5 draws), their longest unbeaten run under Mikel Arteta. They have one fewer Premier League game than Liverpool in the next month, but one more than the Reds in March. Arsenal fans hope their team is still in the title race when they travel to Anfield on May 10, as a good result in that game would set the stage for the final stretch of their schedule, which includes a home game against Newcastle and then an away game against Southampton on the final day, by which time the Saints may already be relegated. Arsenal's schedule for their last 14 Premier League games is as follows: (omitted)

Half of Liverpool's games are against teams in the top half of the table, and in their next three games, they face potential challenges away to Aston Villa and Manchester City. They will also face rivals Arsenal towards the end of the season, but with home advantage. Meanwhile, Arsenal will face 6 teams in the top half of the table in their last 14 games.

On paper, Arsenal's schedule may be slightly easier, but the team suffered a blow this week as forward Kai Havertz may be out for the season. The 25-year-old suffered a muscle injury at the team's training camp in Dubai and is currently undergoing assessment. Havertz has made 34 appearances in all competitions this season, becoming the team's top scorer with 15 goals and 5 assists. Arsenal has already lost forwards Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to hamstring injuries, and forward Gabriel Jesus is out for the season with an ACL injury. Furthermore, they did not sign another forward in the winter transfer window.