Gaza: Confusion and mistrust hang over efforts to save ceasefire

Since the Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect on January 19, the agreement has seemed shaky, but now appears closer than ever to complete collapse. A senior Egyptian source revealed to the BBC that regional mediators, including Egypt and Qatar, are "intensifying diplomatic efforts to try to save the ceasefire agreement." These efforts are crucial in preventing further escalation and maintaining stability in the region.

A Hamas official told the BBC that a high-level Hamas delegation had arrived in Cairo for talks "to contain the current crisis." He reiterated his organization's "full commitment" to the terms of the agreement. However, tensions remain high, and all parties are seeking solutions to avoid the agreement's breakdown, requiring a delicate balance of diplomacy and compromise.

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated: "If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire is over, and [Israeli forces] will resume intense fighting." However, there is conflicting information about whether he was referring to all 76 hostages still held in Gaza, aligning with a high-stakes ultimatum presented by US President Donald Trump. The ambiguity surrounding the demand adds to the uncertainty and pressure on Hamas.

Trump's move was a response to Hamas's threat on Monday to scupper the agreement. Hamas complained that Israel was violating the ceasefire agreement, particularly regarding aid, and warned it would delay Saturday's hostage release. Furthermore, President Trump's new radical plan for the US to take over Gaza – excluding its two million Palestinian inhabitants – has altered the context of the ceasefire deal his administration helped broker. The proposed takeover has introduced a new layer of complexity to the already fragile situation.

On Wednesday, the White House reiterated Trump's plan, while acknowledging a day earlier that "the King would rather have the Palestinians stay where they are," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. "But the President thinks that if these Palestinians can be moved to a safer area, that would be better, more spectacular." The contrasting viewpoints highlight the internal debate and lack of consensus on the future of Gaza.

Following a four-hour Israeli security cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Israeli journalists confessed to being baffled by contradictory and confusing briefings. After a video message from the Israeli Prime Minister demanding the release of "our" hostages, the first report – quoting an unnamed senior Israeli official – said this referred to the three male hostages scheduled for release. The lack of clarity from official sources contributes to the overall sense of uncertainty and distrust.

News then emerged that Israel expected the last nine living hostages to be freed during the first phase of the ceasefire – a six-week period that should see a total of 33 captives handed over. Key ministers then began to offer opinions. Miri Regev – a close ally of Netanyahu – stated on X that the decision was "very clear" and echoed Trump's demand. "By Saturday, everyone will be released!" she said. Her assertive statement reflects the hardline stance within the Israeli government.

Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – who has threatened to quit Netanyahu's coalition if fighting does not resume at the end of the six-week truce – went further. He suggested on social media that Hamas be told to release all the hostages or face the opening of "the gates of hell," with no fuel, water, or humanitarian aid entering Gaza. Smotrich's extreme rhetoric underscores the deep divisions within the Israeli government regarding the approach to the conflict.

He said there should be only "fire and brimstone" from Israeli warplanes and tanks, the complete occupation of the territory, and the expulsion of its population. "We have all international support on this," he stated. His comments suggest how Trump's vision for post-war Gaza has emboldened the far right in Israel. The alignment of views between the Israeli far-right and the Trump administration is a significant factor in the current situation.

This is said to have alarmed Israeli security chiefs, who negotiated the current ceasefire deal, believing that its collapse would endanger the lives of the hostages. Israeli media reports that they are working to find a way for the next three hostages held by Hamas to be brought back as planned this weekend. Hostage families and their supporters are dismayed by the latest developments, as are war-weary Gazans. The well-being of the hostages and the civilian population in Gaza remains a paramount concern.

The fact that the head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, led a delegation to Cairo to follow up on implementation suggests that the armed group is also trying to get the ceasefire back on track. Since January 19, the agreement has seen a total of 16 Israeli hostages brought home in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Five Thai farmworkers were also freed. The exchange of prisoners and hostages is a crucial aspect of the ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have retreated to around the perimeter of Gaza, including along the Egyptian border. The relative calm has enabled hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return to their communities, and brought a surge of humanitarian aid. However, the current impasse stems from Hamas's claim that Israel has not fulfilled its commitments in the first phase of the truce. The conflicting claims regarding compliance with the agreement are at the heart of the current crisis.

Hamas says this required the Israeli authorities to allow around 300,000 tents and 60,000 caravans into Gaza. These shelters are urgently needed with so many people returning to destroyed homes in the cold and wet winter weather. Fuel and generators are also said to be in short supply – especially in northern Gaza – where they are desperately needed, particularly for water pumps and bakeries. The provision of adequate shelter and essential supplies is critical for the well-being of the returning population.

It is difficult to accurately verify what is entering the territory. According to data cited by the UN, "644,000 people across Gaza have received shelter assistance, including tents, sealing kits and tarpaulins, since the ceasefire came into effect." The Israeli military body Cogat says that Israel "is committed to and is fulfilling its obligations to transfer 600 humanitarian aid trucks into the Gaza Strip every day." The conflicting accounts highlight the challenges in accurately assessing the humanitarian situation.

It added: "According to the data in our possession, hundreds of thousands of tents have entered the Gaza Strip since the agreement came into effect." Despite the conflicting claims, it can be assumed that the issue of aid allowed into Gaza is something that the mediators can resolve. "Cairo and Doha are urging the parties to abide by the terms of the agreement, although political and field complexities are making the task more challenging," a senior Egyptian source told the BBC. The role of mediators is crucial in bridging the gap between conflicting claims and ensuring the agreement's implementation.

"It is in everyone's interest for the ceasefire to continue, and we warn that the collapse of the agreement will lead to a new round of violence with serious regional repercussions." Even if the immediate crisis can be overcome this weekend, the next stage of ceasefire talks remains up in the air. Unless Hamas and Israel agree to an extension, the first phase of the agreement is due to end in March. So far, talks on the matter have been postponed. The long-term prospects for the ceasefire remain uncertain, and the potential for renewed violence is a significant concern.

The Israeli Prime Minister has postponed discussions about the next phase, due to pressure from within his governing coalition, and growing evidence during the truce that – contrary to his war aims – Hamas remains a significant political and military force in Gaza. During the hostage handover and aid distribution, Hamas has sought to project an image of strength. Hamas's continued presence and influence pose a challenge to Israel's long-term objectives in Gaza.

Although Hamas has previously indicated its willingness to share power with other Palestinian factions, it still appears unlikely to disarm. On top of this, Trump doubling down on his idea of turning Gaza into a Mediterranean tourist destination – after moving the people who live there to Jordan and Egypt – has caused shock and anger across the Arab world. Trump's vision for Gaza's future has sparked widespread condemnation and further complicated the already complex situation.

Egypt says it has drawn up its own comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of Gaza – one that does not involve Palestinians leaving their land. Leaders from Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are expected to meet ahead of a meeting in Cairo on February 27. The ongoing dispute over Gaza's future is adding to the confusion and deep distrust, while also impacting efforts to resolve the current crisis. The lack of consensus on Gaza's future hinders efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region.