German center-right leader Friedrich Merz is expected to become the next German Chancellor. Preliminary forecasts indicate that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which he leads, will win the national elections.
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02-24, 2025The conservative alliance CDU/CSU (Christian Social Union), which had previously been in opposition, declared victory in Sunday's elections. However, with a vote share of less than 30%, the alliance needs to form a coalition government with other parties.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its best result to date, coming in second place. Merz stated that he will strive to form a government that can represent the entire country and play a role internationally. "Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we will work... the outside world will not wait for us," the 69-year-old leader told supporters.
Merz is about to enter lengthy coalition negotiations after a series of violent attacks, but he does not hold strong bargaining chips. Although the CDU/CSU became the largest party, its vote share of only 28.7% is the second-worst result since World War II, followed by the AfD with 19.8%. It is currently unclear whether Merz needs one or two partners to form a majority government. All mainstream parties, including the CDU, have ruled out cooperation with the AfD.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz also fell to its worst result since World War II, with a projected 16.4% of the vote according to ZDF (German television), while the Greens received 12.3% and the far-left Left Party 8.9%. Merz lacks previous governing experience, but he has promised to provide stronger leadership than Scholz and strengthen ties with key allies, returning Germany to a central role in Europe. He has also expressed conditional support for providing long-range "Taurus" missiles to Ukraine and firmly anchoring Europe within NATO.
Merz, an outspoken economic liberal who has pushed the conservatives to the right, is seen as the antithesis of former conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years. Therefore, coalition negotiations are bound to be very tricky, especially after the campaign exposed deep divisions on immigration and how to deal with the AfD, where far-right politics carries a particularly strong stigma in Germany due to its Nazi history. This could lead to Scholz serving as caretaker chancellor for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revitalize Europe's largest economy, which has experienced economic contraction for two consecutive years.
This will also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe, even as it grapples with a series of challenges, including US President Donald Trump's threats of trade wars and attempts to quickly reach a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine without European involvement. Germans are now more pessimistic about living standards than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis. Attitudes toward immigration have also hardened since Germany's "welcome refugees" culture during the 2015 European migrant crisis, a profound shift in German public sentiment that the AfD has promoted and exploited.
Germany's election campaign has been dominated by heated debates focusing on the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, a perception exacerbated by a series of attacks where the suspects were of immigrant origin. Furthermore, unusually strong expressions of solidarity with the anti-immigrant AfD from members of the Trump administration – including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – and fierce attacks on European leaders have also cast a shadow over the campaign. According to exit polls, the 12-year-old AfD has come in second place in a national election for the first time. "This is a historic result for us," said AfD co-leader Alice Weidel as party supporters waved German flags in celebration. "We are open to coalition talks... otherwise, there can be no change in German politics."
Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" to congratulate the election results. "Just like in the USA, the people of Germany are tired of the no-common-sense agenda that has prevailed for years, especially on energy and immigration," he wrote. "A great day for Germany."
